Jud Fabian, 2024

[scarey1999]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Another dinger tonight and OPS up to .848.  He will get one more PA but no Ks & 1 BB through his first 4 PAs.  He’s officially got my attention.  

Hope he keeps it up. He and Beavers could make nice trade bait along with others commonly mentioned. 

[DirtyBird]

9 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

Hope he keeps it up. He and Beavers could make nice trade bait along with others commonly mentioned. 

Why would Fabian be trade bait? He is a RH bat that can play a plus CF. The ideal situation for him would be continued improvement into a platoon/4th OF on next year's team.

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Why would Fabian be trade bait? He is a RH bat that can play a plus CF. The ideal situation for him would be continued improvement into a platoon/4th OF on next year's team.

Agreed, Fabian is not blocked here. Given his CF defense his best case scenario is a starting CF, which we’ll need after Mullins, and his much more likely outcome (if he makes it at the MLB level) is a 4th OF. His righty bat would complement all the lefties really well in that role. Hays could very well be nontendered this off-season and even if not, we’ll need someone in that mold for 2026.

The Orioles absolutely should be willing to part with Fabian in a deal to support the 2024 team, as they should with pretty much all the prospects outside of a select few, but I don’t think he’s one where it makes sense to try to include him in a package. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Small sample alert, but I remember last year Fabian had similar K and BB rates against RHP and LHP but hit for much better power/BABIP against LHP. This year so far is the opposite - he has an excellent 8 BB / 6 K against LHP but only a .798 OPS, and 6 BB / 35 K against RHP with a .825 OPS. 

I’m going to take that as a positive. The biggest Q is obviously his K rate, so if he has good K and BB rates against LHP and that mitigates the contact issues holding him back, then that greatly increases his chances of being a good platoon player. 

[scarey1999]

11 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Why would Fabian be trade bait? He is a RH bat that can play a plus CF. The ideal situation for him would be continued improvement into a platoon/4th OF on next year's team.

I view him as trade bait because:

1) his K rate does not lend toward future success at higher levels

2) I don’t believe his hit tool/contact rate will allow him to hit for a high enough avg to make use of any benefit he may provide with power at the plate and defense 

3) he’s not exactly a spring chicken, prospect wise…rapidly approaching his 24th bday while still trying to figure out AA

 

 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

I view him as trade bait because:

1) his K rate does not lend toward future success at higher levels

2) I don’t believe his hit tool/contact rate will allow him to hit for a high enough avg to make use of any benefit he may provide with power at the plate and defense 

3) he’s not exactly a spring chicken, prospect wise…rapidly approaching his 24th bday while still trying to figure out AA

 

 

His birthday is Sep.27.     I don’t consider September 27 to be rapidly approaching.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

His birthday is Sep.27.     I don’t consider September 27 to be rapidly approaching.

Yeah, that part of his argument was pretty silly.  He’ll be 23 for the entire minor league season.  He’s playing well enough this year to warrant a midseason promotion to AAA if he keeps it up.  I do think his K rate is worrisome and if he’s traded I won’t lose sleep over it.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

48 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

I view him as trade bait because:

1) his K rate does not lend toward future success at higher levels

2) I don’t believe his hit tool/contact rate will allow him to hit for a high enough avg to make use of any benefit he may provide with power at the plate and defense 

3) he’s not exactly a spring chicken, prospect wise…rapidly approaching his 24th bday while still trying to figure out AA

 

 

Those are all also reasons why another club wouldn’t want to trade for him. They’re apparent to everyone, and baked into his trade value.

To me, “trade bait” is a guy who has more value to the Orioles as a trade piece than by keeping him, because they are blocked by other superior players in this organization. Joey Ortiz was a prime example. Kyle Stowers is the biggest one now. Creed Willems probably. Connor Norby too, but he’s more similar to Fabian in that he could be a nice complementary bench RH bat for all the lefties and probably isn’t quite good enough for another team to value him as a potential starter. Fabian isn’t remotely blocked in this organization. 

[Rbiggs2525]

I like Fabian because his floor is very high. I think worst case scenario he is a fringe big leaguer like McKenna. I think best case he’s Adam Duvall with better defense.

[Rbiggs2525]

Also with the state of our CF play in the organization, he’s one of the last prospects I’m trading. 

[scarey1999]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

His birthday is Sep.27.     I don’t consider September 27 to be rapidly approaching.

I thought it was a little sooner.  Ok so either way, he’ll be 24 entering next season. Still not “young”. 

[scarey1999]

24 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Those are all also reasons why another club wouldn’t want to trade for him. They’re apparent to everyone, and baked into his trade value.

To me, “trade bait” is a guy who has more value to the Orioles as a trade piece than by keeping him, because they are blocked by other superior players in this organization. Joey Ortiz was a prime example. Kyle Stowers is the biggest one now. Creed Willems probably. Connor Norby too, but he’s more similar to Fabian in that he could be a nice complementary bench RH bat for all the lefties and probably isn’t quite good enough for another team to value him as a potential starter. Fabian isn’t remotely blocked in this organization. 

Which is why my very first statement was literally “hope he keeps it up”, meaning continue to play well, thus increasing his trade value, then move him while his value is up.

You all are right in saying he’s not blocked. Pretty obvious he isn’t. However that’s not a good reason to not trade a guy to help you win now if that’s what they choose to do by bringing in pitching help. 

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

I thought it was a little sooner.  Ok so either way, he’ll be 24 entering next season. Still not “young”. 

Ok, but it’s not atypical for a good college prospect to be 23 and in AA.  For comparison, super duper Yankee phenom Spenser Jones just turned 23 last week, has a 33% K rate, and a .626 OPS for AA Somerset.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, that part of his argument was pretty silly.  He’ll be 23 for the entire minor league season.  He’s playing well enough this year to warrant a midseason promotion to AAA if he keeps it up.  I do think his K rate is worrisome and if he’s traded I won’t lose sleep over it.  

I’ve seen him wave at breaking pitches that were a foot outside.  He’s got a ways to go but he can put a charge into the ball and looks like a good defender.   

[scarey1999]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Ok, but it’s not atypical for a good college prospect to be 23 and in AA.  For comparison, super duper Yankee phenom Spenser Jones just turned 23 last week, has a 33% K rate, and a .626 OPS for AA Somerset.

I don’t disagree. You could make a lot of cases for or against acceptable production (or lack thereof) based of player level and respective age. I simply don’t think this player is a must keep as many are insinuating. Luckily we’re all just armchair GMs and can hazard guesses and opinions all day long without real repercussion.