Anthony Santander 2024

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why could you see Tony have a similar aging curve?  Cruz was a better BA and OBP guy. He was a better offensive player across the board. 
 

Santander may have a few 500+ slugging seasons in him but he won’t be near the offensive player Cruz was.

And Cruz's aging curve is pretty much unprecedented.

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why could you see Tony have a similar aging curve?  Cruz was a better BA and OBP guy. He was a better offensive player across the board. 
 

Santander may have a few 500+ slugging seasons in him but he won’t be near the offensive player Cruz was.

You’re right, but isn’t it funny how he and Big Papi seemed to really get stronger and pick up more bat speed as they approached 40, and beyond. What was Cruz at 30 years old? We really can’t compare them, unless Tony taters gets some med intervention.

[Sports Guy]

I believe the Os will try to extend Santander. I think a 2/35-3/50 type deal is something they could try and while that’s not some crippling salary, I just don’t see the point.

We will see how he ends the season but I can’t think of a scenario where I want to bring him back unless we trade multiple young bats.

[foxfield]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's slow, 21st percentile sprint speed.

He's not someone you should be locking up in his 30's.

The O's got a lot of value out of him and should quit while they are ahead.

This is cold and harsh, but it's accurate.  Love Tony and really value his presence in the dugout, but I think he get's the QO and I think someone is going to offer well more than what the O's will pay.  And if he lands, say in Philly...we may regret it, but as SG says above, the only reasons he should be on the roster in '25 are if he accepts the QO or if we trade our OF depth away.

[Can_of_corn]

30 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

You’re right, but isn’t it funny how he and Big Papi seemed to really get stronger and pick up more bat speed as they approached 40, and beyond. What was Cruz at 30 years old? We really can’t compare them, unless Tony taters gets some med intervention.

It's not funny, they were both linked to PEDs.

It is what it is.

 

[e16bball]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And Cruz's aging curve is pretty much unprecedented.

This is the point that matters. 

Cruz got his first extended look at the MLB level at age 25, and between ages 25-29, he posted a combined 113 wRC+. Santander has posted a combined 118 wRC+ during the same span in his career. Cruz also had trouble staying healthy, and he struggled to stay up at the ML level on a strong TEX team. I don’t think it’s accurate to say that at the same point in their careers, Cruz was the better offensive player.

However, as you reference, the secret sauce with Nelson Cruz’s career is that he got much better in his 30s. Won’t speculate as to why/how that happened — but it’s a very rare player indeed who is a (much) better hitter at 38 than he was at 28. Because of that Benjamin Button aging curve, he certainly became a much better hitter than Tony. 

It’s extremely unlikely that Tony will follow that path and get so much better as he ages…because almost no one ever has. Nelson is 13th all-time in Batting Runs between ages 37-39, which is a pretty wild thing to be true of a guy who couldn’t crack his team’s MLB lineup at age 28. When you look at other players through history who excelled to that extent at advanced ages, there are very few whose careers follow the arc that Nelson’s did, where they weren’t very good hitters until about age 30 but then destroyed the ball for the next decade. David Ortiz, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Moises Alou. Funny coincidence that they all played around the same time, I guess…

Edited July 20 by e16bball

[StottyByNature]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's slow, 21st percentile sprint speed.

He's not someone you should be locking up in his 30's.

The O's got a lot of value out of him and should quit while they are ahead.

This is right.  Santander has been so much fun to have but you don't pay for past results.  It's always better to let a guy go a year too early than a year too late.

Having said that, I would happily give him a QO and if he accepted that would be good news.  A one year contract for him should not hinder any other offseason moves, though if I were Santander's agent I would advise him to get as much guaranteed money as he could right now even if the AAV is lower.

[Birdland in NC]

He has more HR’s than Juan Soto, 3rd most in the AL.  He’s not replaceable. Pay that man, he’s earned it.  
Aging curve? Judge is 32, I guess he’s done 

Edited July 20 by Birdland in NC

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

He has more HR’s than Juan Soto, 3rd most in the AL.  He’s not replaceable. Pay that man, he’s earned it.  
Aging curve? Judge is 32, I guess he’s done 

Yes he has more HR than a player not known for his home runs.

He also has an OBP 128 points lower and a lower slugging despite the homeruns.

What a weird comp to try and make.  He's not nearly the hitter Soto is.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

He has more HR’s than Juan Soto, 3rd most in the AL.  He’s not replaceable. Pay that man, he’s earned it.  
Aging curve? Judge is 32, I guess he’s done 

He’s 100% replaceable.  That’s an absurd comment to make.

 

[jabba72]

22 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

He has more HR’s than Juan Soto, 3rd most in the AL.  He’s not replaceable. Pay that man, he’s earned it.  
Aging curve? Judge is 32, I guess he’s done 

He'll likely get a QO if he wants to stay. I dont envision Santander being playable in RF beyond next season, maybe two years tops.

[interloper]

29 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

He has more HR’s than Juan Soto, 3rd most in the AL.  He’s not replaceable. Pay that man, he’s earned it.  
Aging curve? Judge is 32, I guess he’s done 

I love Tony but this comment is a miss I'm afraid.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Why could you see Tony have a similar aging curve?  Cruz was a better BA and OBP guy. He was a better offensive player across the board. 
 

Santander may have a few 500+ slugging seasons in him but he won’t be near the offensive player Cruz was.

We shouldn’t get too caught up in comparing Santander to a unicorn.  He’s way younger than Cruz was when he was with the Orioles.  I like his chances of having a couple more years like 2022-23 (I think this year likely is his peak).   But in my opinion, a 2-3 year deal isn’t in the cards if his season continues at the current pace.  He’s going to get a better deal than that on the open market.  Not one we should match.  

[ORIOLE33]

It's weird the way Santander gets these backhanded compliments and doesn't get the love other players would get if they had his power numbers. I've noticed that for the last couple of years. 

 

All I know is, Santander is the guy I would want up in a big spot late in the game. And that includes Adley and Gunnar. 
 

 

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Why could you see Tony have a similar aging curve?  Cruz was a better BA and OBP guy. He was a better offensive player across the board. 
 

Santander may have a few 500+ slugging seasons in him but he won’t be near the offensive player Cruz was.

I didn’t say I could see him having a similar aging curve, but Cruz’s curve is crazy after 34.  Next 4-5 years I think he will be good.