Ryan O’Hearn 2024

[DrungoHazewood]

On 4/17/2024 at 8:48 AM, Sanity Check said:

Fair point, but what was his prior OPS vs. right handers vs. what he's done in 2023/2024?  My point is, has he improved there enough to think that maybe he could also begin to hit left-handers better if he had more reps? 

My position has long been that almost every hitter, given enough PAs, will have something around a standard platoon split. Or about 80-100 OPS points worse against same-sided pitching. Yes, some observed splits are much larger than that, but I think that's mostly small sample randomness and the effect of never seeing same-sided pitchers.

In an alternate universe where O'Hearn is on the Orioles, shifts are still outlawed, and he plays everyday, he OPSes about .800 against righties and .700 against lefties.

And I still contend that, by far, the largest difference between 2018-22 O'Hearn and 2023-24 O'Hearn was the outlawing of shifts. He always hit far worse when facing a shift.

[Warehouse]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

O'Hearn actually has a career .748 OPS versus LHSP in 157 PA. It's the near helplessness against LHRP in 41 PA that makes it look like he can't hit lefties. He's around .080 OPS lower against lefties in his minor-league career, which is roughly the average platoon advantage split.

I don't think it's some foregone conclusion he can't hit lefties. Maybe he doesn't need to the way our roster is constructed, but I think the idea he can't hit lefties deserves some scrutiny.

O’Hean said as much to Roch a few weeks back.  

“When it’s mentioned that O’Hearn’s numbers against left-handers aren’t strong, with a career .171/.244/.297 line and five home runs in 194 plate appearances, O’Hearn says, “My career numbers overall aren’t great. Not just against lefties.””

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/this-that-and-the-other-1-52#:~:text=297 line and five home,last year%2C” he said.

[The B&G]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

If O'Hearn as anything close to this player for the entire season, I don't see how the Orioles don't bring him back next year. He's been that good!

100% if he keeps this up, he'll be one of the team's best hitters, they're definitely not just gonna let him walk. If he comes back down to earth and his OPS is slightly below .800, that's when I'll be intrigued to see what they do. 

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, The B&G said:

100% if he keeps this up, he'll be one of the team's best hitters, they're definitely not just gonna let him walk. If he comes back down to earth and his OPS is slightly below .800, that's when I'll be intrigued to see what they do. 

He has a team option next season for 7.5 million.

[Tony-OH]

O'Hearn is overlooked by a lot of people, including me sometimes because we get so focused on seeing the shiny new prospects. At the end of the day, he's been pretty mazing so far this year. After looking like they may have figured him out by the end of last year, he's turned it up another notch. Right now, it's hard to keep him out of the lineup against right-handers. 

I don't think he's as good as he's been this year, but then again, he keeps out performing what anyone thought he was capable of so far since becoming an Oriole.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

O'Hearn is overlooked by a lot of people, including me sometimes because we get so focused on seeing the shiny new prospects. At the end of the day, he's been pretty mazing so far this year. After looking like they may have figured him out by the end of last year, he's turned it up another notch. Right now, it's hard to keep him out of the lineup against right-handers. 

I don't think he's as good as he's been this year, but then again, he keeps out performing what anyone thought he was capable of so far since becoming an Oriole.

I don't know what to make of his absurd statcast data.  There's no shot he's Shohei vs RHP, is there?

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I don't know what to make of his absurd statcast data.  There's no shot he's Shohei vs RHP, is there?

I think he's on a very nice heater. But his statcast percentiles are video game stuff right now. That certainly suggests he can stay well above average this year at least.

[luismatos4prez]

O'Hearn has 4 more walks than strikeouts this year. That didn't used to be special, but it is in today's game. As far as I can see, Rafael Palmeiro in 2004 was the last to do it for the Orioles in a full season of ABs and he wasn't much of a hitter by then.

[OHearn4Prez]

I think O’HIM has earned some starts against lefties. 

[Safelykept]

5 minutes ago, OHearn4Prez said:

I think O’HIM has earned some starts against lefties. 

Maybe he has but part of this team reminds of the Weaver era, where Earl knew his teams strengths and knew how to put them in roles where they could succeed. This Administration has found a good spot for Ohearn, for me don't mess with it, if its righty he starts, if not great match up bat off the bench.

[joelala]

9 minutes ago, OHearn4Prez said:

I think O’HIM has earned some starts against lefties. 

Agree I’d love to see Rhino get some more run against lefties (especially cuz I have him on my fantasy team) but I don’t see it unless Mounty or god forbid Adley gets hurt. 

[luismatos4prez]

Mar/April: .299/.373/.552

May: .234/.289/.364

I'd keep starting him at DH vs RHPs, but something to keep an eye on.

[spiritof66]

On 5/4/2024 at 2:56 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

My position has long been that almost every hitter, given enough PAs, will have something around a standard platoon split. Or about 80-100 OPS points worse against same-sided pitching. Yes, some observed splits are much larger than that, but I think that's mostly small sample randomness and the effect of never seeing same-sided pitchers.

In an alternate universe where O'Hearn is on the Orioles, shifts are still outlawed, and he plays everyday, he OPSes about .800 against righties and .700 against lefties.

And I still contend that, by far, the largest difference between 2018-22 O'Hearn and 2023-24 O'Hearn was the outlawing of shifts. He always hit far worse when facing a shift.

I believe Drungo is channeling Bill James -- or maybe vice versa -- with respect to batters' platoon splits. The other side of Bill's position, I recall it, is that most pitchers' platoon splits will, over time, be pretty close to one another, but there will be far more outliers and more differences because of differences among what pitches they throw.

I don't know whether this has been studied, but it always seems to me that there must be batters whose platoon splits are exaggerated because they face lots of opposite-side pitchers, including the best ones, but are not given many at-bats against the best same-side pitchers -- fewer starts and sometimes being pinch-hit for against back-of-the-bullpen same-side relievers -- resulting in a larger difference in the quality of pitchers these guys faced. There must be some effect from that, but maybe it's small and hidden among the data and noise about platooning.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I believe Drungo is channeling Bill James -- or maybe vice versa -- with respect to batters' platoon splits. The other side of Bill's position, I recall it, is that most pitchers' platoon splits will, over time, be pretty close to one another, but there will be far more outliers and more differences because of differences among what pitches they throw.

I don't know whether this has been studied, but it always seems to me that there must be batters whose platoon splits are exaggerated because they face lots of opposite-side pitchers, including the best ones, but are not given many at-bats against the best same-side pitchers -- fewer starts and sometimes being pinch-hit for against back-of-the-bullpen same-side relievers -- resulting in a larger difference in the quality of pitchers these guys faced. There must be some effect from that, but maybe it's small and hidden among the data and noise about platooning.

 

I think pitcher's platoon splits can be larger, and not just due to random variation. Because pitchers can employ strategies that emphasize the platoon split, like throwing sidearm sweepers/sliders that are vastly more effective against same-sided hitters. Hitters really don't have the option of using some kind of strategy that is wildly more effective against one type of pitcher, or one hand of pitcher.

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Mar/April: .299/.373/.552

May: .234/.289/.364

I'd keep starting him at DH vs RHPs, but something to keep an eye on.

I’ve noticed that he’s not barreling up some hittable pitches lately.  He’s either fouling them off or skying them to the OF.  Hopefully he finds the range again soon.