Are we worried about MLB-worst walk rate?

[Aristotelian]

As long as we are first in runs per game I'm good. I honestly haven't noticed our guys making too many bad swing decisions. I think we have mostly just faced good pitching. 

[SilentJames]

Not worried at all, we are still les than 20 games in and stats can look real weird. Like, there is no way that both Hays and Holliday have sub 100 BAs for the rest of the year. Things tend to even out. They aren't chasing, they aren't K'ing so this is an anomaly.

[Moose Milligan]

19 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Tied 2nd in MLB in exit velo

2nd in hard hit %

I figured statcast would have it.  Thanks for looking it up, I'd give you rep but I'm out of it for today, apparently.

Glad to see we're up there with exit velo and hard hit %.  Seems like almost everything hit last night was 100 mph+.  

[SilentJames]

The other thing we have to note is that this Twins series is the first series the Orioles have opened up against a currently sub 500 team. The National League is putting up some absolutely gaudy offensive numbers right now and the Brewers and Pirates lead their league in RA and the Royals lead all of the MLB with only 48 RA so far on the season. 

The Orioles have had a pretty tough schedule to open the year, all things being equal. 

[dzorange]

Of the Orioles starters, the only one with a truly poor walk rate this year is Santander (3.1%). He's generally an 8.5% walk rate kind of guy. 

Cowser, Westburg and Mullins are all at about 7%, but all three have been hot to start the year. They should be swinging.

Henderson's walk rate is right about where it was last year, but for him to become elite it'll need to eventually improve. But 8.3% isn't horrible.

Mountcastle (10.3%) and O'Hearn (11.1%) are actually up considerably. O'Hearn's isn't sustainable, but Mountcastle's may not drop too far.

The two biggest reasons why the O's walk rates are down? Rutschman (down 6%) and zero walks out of Holliday, who will be the every day 2B. Once he starts to figure things out, and Adley trends back to his normal walk rates, I don't think this will be much of a concern. Santander will improve as well.

So basically, are we worried about Adley, Jackson and 'Tony 'Taters? I am not.

 

Edited April 16 by dzorange

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I agree with this.  

Needs?  Maybe/maybe not.  I'm probably splitting hairs, but good swing decisions and barrels are his game.  Whether or not that leads to walks is something else.  He had a few bad PAs in Boston (maybe more, but those stick out), but he's been in control of the zone in general.

Yes…getting on base is a good thing. His OBp isn’t that good this year and it was similar last year.

[Three Run Homer]

Given the umpires the O's have had to deal with, I'm not surprised that they haven't drawn many walks.  

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, dzorange said:

Henderson's walk rate is right about where it was last year, but for him to become elite it'll need to eventually improve. But 8.3% isn't horrible.

Need?  Tatis, Riley, Seager, Witt, Julio...  all Gunnar adjacent or worse BB%.  Nice to have to make him "more elite", sure.  

[Orioles0615]

3 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

22nd in Ks, 9th in OPS, so no.

Take out Holliday and they are 30th in Ks

 

 

 

I kid I kid 

[G54377]

We lead the AL in slugging, which tells me we are probably getting pitches to hit (and we are hitting them).

[dzorange]

26 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Need?  Tatis, Riley, Seager, Witt, Julio...  all Gunnar adjacent or worse BB%.  Nice to have to make him "more elite", sure.  

All of these guys with the exception of Witt, who is in the same boat as Gunnar, have batting averages considerably higher than Gunnar.

Gunnar is not yet an elite player, based on his 826 career plate appearances. Not saying that he won't be going forward starting as soon as today, but his OBP needs to improve.

Edited April 16 by dzorange

[sevastras]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

Pretty much agree. 

I do think the offense is missing maybe one more walk-oriented guy like we had with Hicks. I'm hoping Cowser can start being that guy in between the homers and the Ks. Holliday knows the zone also and should walk eventually, though it may take some time. 

I have watched a good portion of Hollidays at bats and the frustrating part for me is he has some called third strikes that are out of the zone. He knows the zone and when he can’t trust the umpire to call it correctly, that may have led to him pushing more and expanding more. I’ve seen a few with Gunnar as well and can see the look on his face when he walks away. Maybe just start punching those away close ones the opposite way and pitchers will stop going 3, 4 inches outside hoping for the call. 

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, dzorange said:

All of these guys with the exception of Witt, who is in the same boat as Gunnar, have batting averages considerably higher than Gunnar.

Gunnar is not yet an elite player, based on his 826 career plate appearances. Not saying that he won't be going forward starting as soon as today, but his OBP needs to improve.

What is your cutoff for "elite"?   Gunnar is at 6.2 rWAR/per 162.  That's higher than Riley, Seager, Witt, and Julio.

[dzorange]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What is your cutoff for "elite"?   Gunnar is at 6.2 rWAR/per 162.  That's higher than Riley, Seager, Witt, and Julio.

The other poster brought up those other names.

But Gunnar ranked 20th in oWAR in 2023 with Baseball Reference and 21st in Offense with Fangraphs in 2023. If we're just going off of every player's 2023 season, then Gunnar didn't make my elite cutoff.

I'm surprised that of anything in my original reply, saying that Gunnar needs to improve his walk rate is what's creating a debate. Of the top 30 players in fWAR in 2023, the only ones who had a lower OBP were Witt and Robert Jr.

Edited April 16 by dzorange

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, dzorange said:

The other poster brought up those other names.

But Gunnar ranked 20th in oWAR in 2023 with Baseball Reference and 21st in Offense with Fangraphs in 2023. If we're just going off of every player's 2023 season, then Gunnar didn't make my elite cutoff.

I'm surprised that of anything in my original reply, saying that Gunnar needs to improve his walk rate is what's creating a debate. Of the top 30 players in fWAR in 2023, the only ones who had a lower OBP were Witt and Robert Jr.

It's just a quibble over an imperative 'need'.  Would a higher walk rate help him?  All things being equal, absolutely.  But what if there's a trade off?  Maybe less aggressive swings lead to lower EV and less SLG?