Brandon Young 2024

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

We’ll get his Statcast data now!

Saw this excellent write up on Twitter. Makes me even more convinced that the injury question is really the main thing that could hold him back, especially with that funky delivery. And sounds like there could even be a bit more unlock to find a better weapon against righties.

Total Stuff+: 107 | Fastball: 115 | Changeup: 108 | Slider: 96 | Curveball: 100

Overall: Weird combo of height, release and vertical break; great underlying swing-miss

Young has dominated Double-A Bowie through 5 starts, posting a 42% strikeout with just a 4% walk rate. The success stems from a plus four-seam fastball. It’s averaging 93 mph with 20” vertical break and 5” arm-side from a 6.2’ release. His release is higher than the average of 5.8’, but even once you adjust for that release, he’s still carrying the ball ~2” more than average. In trying to figure out how that shape could be chewing up hitters to the tune of a 41% swing-miss rate, almost double that of the usual fastball, I stumbled on his height. Young is 6-foot-6, which I did not expect based on the pitch characteristics presented above. The majority of guys touching 20” vertical from a 6.2’ release (like Jose Urquidy and Trevor Richards) are doing so with higher arm angles from shorter frames. Young is somehow able to do so from a larger frame. He falls off hard towards the first base side after foot plant, which helps to get his shoulder line lower so he can sustain a higher release. This and his extension prevent him from having a 6.6’+ release, an area where it would make his vertical break less impactful. Hitter performance is also telling us it’s a weird look.

His best secondary is a changeup which he’s putting in the zone at a 63% clip. This is very high for a changeup (40% is average). Despite the high zone rate, he’s still generating strong swing-miss and limiting contact quality. His slider grades below average due to the 84 mph velocity it averages without outlier sweep or drop. The pitch looks like the sliders of Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez in shape, just slower (~5” sweep, ~5” vertical break). It has an xwOBA above .420, which is high for a slider. I imagine it’s a righty weapon for him, but still a work in progress based on the results. It’s also the only thing in his mix that’s not in zone over 40%. Cueing this shape harder is common practice in orgs. If it sacrifices drop to push into the 86-87 mph range, where movement becomes less important for a pitch’s success from a Stuff+ perspective, it would be worth it.

Curious about your thoughts on shelving the Slider and going with a sweeper at the slider velo. Seems like he needs a breaking ball to work on both RH and LH hitters. Love the 4SFB shape and the CU sounds like a + pitch as well. Given the Stuff+ rating of 100 on the CB, does he throw that pitch enough?

[CaptainRedbeard]

11 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Curious about your thoughts on shelving the Slider and going with a sweeper at the slider velo. Seems like he needs a breaking ball to work on both RH and LH hitters. Love the 4SFB shape and the CU sounds like a + pitch as well. Given the Stuff+ rating of 100 on the CB, does he throw that pitch enough?

Yeah I thought the lack of discussing the curve in the write up was interesting given the better Stuff+ rating than the slider. If his command of that pitch is ok, I think he actually doesn’t need another breaking ball for lefties - he should be able to be mostly a two pitch pitcher with the fastball and change to them, given how plus both are. A show-me curve third pitch is enough to steal some strikes and have that in the batter’s head.

I think he really only needs the slider to turn into something he can use against righties, given the change won’t be as effective - but he can still use a plus change against righties. He just needs something going away from righties, and if the curve is more 12/6 than sweeper-y then that’s not enough. Whether that a slower sweeper-y slider or a harder cutter-y slider, either should work. His funny arm slot may not be conducive to a sweeper, I’m not sure, but that would be very interesting if he could throw one.

His arsenal sounds similar to Albert Suarez, albeit with the totally different fastball shape. Suarez throws a ton of fastballs and the changeup is a very solid secondary pitch for him. Young probably can work the same way primarily. Suarez bends in a meh curve every once in a while to mix things up. But he still throws a lot of that cutter/slider even though it’s also not all that good because he wants something off the plate going away from righty batters. 

[interloper]

I think you can make a case that Stallings was punted in the trade because the O's are high on Young and needed to clear a rotation spot for him in AAA so that he can be an option for MLB this year. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

45 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think you can make a case that Stallings was punted in the trade because the O's are high on Young and needed to clear a rotation spot for him in AAA so that he can be an option for MLB this year. 

Absolutely, I don’t think that was a coincidence. Stallings was too far buried to get a shot here and they needed to clear some IP at the AAA level.

They also need to move Juan Nunez to AA soon, he’s too old for A+, rule 5 eligible this offseason and a fringy RP prospect. With De Leon going to A+ and Young, Strowd and McHough to AAA, I expect that’s next.

[Aglets]

Promoted to Norfolk!   Good for him.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

Promoted to Norfolk!   Good for him.

Two points for @interloper

[Frobby]

Young is making his Norfolk debut tonight.  One scoreless inning so far. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Young’s night is done. Statcast showing he’s already fixed the slider up into an 87 mph slider. 11 whiffs on 69 pitches, spread nicely across all 4 pitches. Interesting that the fastball has that Stuff+ and shape without a lot of spin, and more spin on the curve then I expected given the average Stuff+.

Walked 3 guys, but 6 Ks and only 2 hard hit balls. He does fall off the mound but not in a way that feels out of control. 

All things considered, a pretty solid AAA debut. Excited to see more from him, he could quickly jump McDermott on the SP depth chart behind Povich and could similarly be a RP option late in the year. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

Young’s night is done. Statcast showing he’s already fixed the slider up into an 87 mph slider. 

*87 mph cutter, not slider. 

[Frobby]

Young threw 4 innings, 2 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks, 6 strikeouts.  Also a HBP.  69 pitches, 38 strikes.  He got 11 whiffs, 4 on the 4 seamer, 4 on change up, 1 on cutter, 2 on curves.  Topped out at 95.2

[Tony-OH]

First AAA start

[RZNJ]

Maybe I watched the wrong inning (2) but I wasn’t impressed.  Fastball mostly 92-93.  Curve didn’t look particularly sharp.  I couldn’t tell what were cutters (86-87) or changeups.  I didn’t see any movement.   Plus he didn’t have good command of anything.  He hit one guy in the helmet and buried some breaking balls in the dirt.    I’m sure Statcast will tell me I’m way off base.  

[Frobby]

Young is adjusting well to AAA.  6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K’s.   He threw only 75 pitches in 6 IP, 57 for strikes.   That’s what you call pounding the zone.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Young is adjusting well to AAA.  6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K’s.   He threw only 75 pitches in 6 IP, 57 for strikes.   That’s what you call pounding the zone.  

Pounding the zone and got 14 whiffs. A good combination.

[interloper]

It would be great if he emerged as a third option for ML starts with Povich and McDermott.