Juan Soto - eventual Hall of Famer? Inner Circle?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think if he stays in NY he has a decent chance of holding onto that OPS+.

OPS+ is ballpark-adjusted, so in theory it shouldn’t matter where he’s playing.  In theory.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OPS+ is ballpark-adjusted, so in theory it shouldn’t matter where he’s playing.  In theory.  

I wasn't just talking about the ballpark.

 

[ChosenOne21]

I'm going to guess that not every, but the vast majority of players who had over 30 WAR before finishing their age 25-season are in the Hall of Fame. I'll bet the list of people who've acquired 30 WAR before their age 25 season was over looks a lot like a list of inner circle hall of famers.

I'd say unless he totally falls apart in the next couple of years, he's in and has a great chance to be inner circle, assuming a relatively normal aging curve.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I'm going to guess that not every, but the vast majority of players who had over 30 WAR before finishing their age 25-season are in the Hall of Fame. I'll bet the list of people who've acquired 30 WAR before their age 25 season was over looks a lot like a list of inner circle hall of famers.

I'd say unless he totally falls apart in the next couple of years, he's in and has a great chance to be inner circle, assuming a relatively normal aging curve.

Andruw Jones is the obvious name that comes to mind.

[ArtVanDelay]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Andruw Jones is the obvious name that comes to mind.

He’ll get in eventually.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

He’ll get in eventually.

#BetterThanBaines.

[ArtVanDelay]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

#BetterThanBaines.

Soto is creeping up on Baines’ WAR total already.

Soto is basically left-handed Frank Thomas at the plate.  Assuming he doesn’t just fall off a cliff, he’ll be in the Hall easily.

[backwardsk]

28 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Soto is creeping up on Baines’ WAR total already.

Soto is basically left-handed Frank Thomas at the plate.  Assuming he doesn’t just fall off a cliff, he’ll be in the Hall easily.

Yes. And I’d bet he passes Jeter’s rWAR rather easily even though he’s pretty neutral to negative value defensively.

If I was the Yankees, I’d discuss with him moving to 1B.

[Chavez Ravine]

Yes.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Yes. And I’d bet he passes Jeter’s rWAR rather easily even though he’s pretty neutral to negative value defensively.

If I was the Yankees, I’d discuss with him moving to 1B.

If the Yankees move him to SS, he'll be heralded as one of the all time great SS as long as he can make some theatrical dives for the ball.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes, he'll be in the Hall.  He will be looked at one of the better hitters of his era.  

I also think the whole WAR argument about certain players is silly, it's certainly silly against Soto.  Like, no one wants to watch Juan Soto because he's a great defender.  No one advertises that as part of his game, no one pretends he is a great defender...so why's that held against him, exactly?  Because WAR?  "Oh, WAR says he's not a great defender, he doesn't bring enough value with the glove so he's not as valuable as this guy and wah wah wah, whine, whine whine..."

It's such a lazy argument that doesn't tell the whole story, that Juan Soto hit for a 1.178 OPS in the World Series at 20 years old.  It doesn't tell the whole story that he's one of the brightest, youngest stars in a game that desperately needs bright young stars and still can't figure out how to market them.  WAR doesn't tell the whole story for a guy like Soto just like it didn't for a guy like Ichiro, just like it didn't for Tony Gwynn.  Does anyone want to tell me that Tony Gwynn's greatness and brilliance can simply be boiled down to 69.2 with a straight face?

That brings me to Jeter which...I mean, cry about it a little harder, guys.  Near unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame, really?  Yes, Yankees fans still think he was a great defender because jump throws are impressive...everyone else knows he wasn't.  That's our privilege and their delusion.

But everyone here also knows that a Hall of Fame vote is an emotional one and that, like it or not, Derek Jeter was one of the prime faces of the MLB during his career in the way that someone like Barry Larkin never was.  It's not Jeter's fault that the Reds aren't the Yankees and that the Reds only won 1 World Series during Larkin's career compared to what Jeter was a part of.  

But that's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

[Just Regular]

I was looking at career wRC+ on Fangraphs at 3000 PA the other day, and they have the Negro Leagues guys mixed in.    Soto and Judge near 3500 PA right now have about as many as some of those guys.

Judge is running ahead of him by now, but Soto has the October wins over Hader, Kershaw, Cole while postseason Judge is ~200 PA of hitting .210.

Absent an upset, this season is probably rolling towards Burnes-Bradish-Grayson competing with Soto-Judge about 30 times if an ALDS goes its 5-game distance.

I'm curious to see if Sigbot arranges the big 3 for the first Yankee Stadium visit about 3 weeks out.

 

[ChosenOne21]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yes, he'll be in the Hall.  He will be looked at one of the better hitters of his era.  

I also think the whole WAR argument about certain players is silly, it's certainly silly against Soto.  Like, no one wants to watch Juan Soto because he's a great defender.  No one advertises that as part of his game, no one pretends he is a great defender...so why's that held against him, exactly?  Because WAR?  "Oh, WAR says he's not a great defender, he doesn't bring enough value with the glove so he's not as valuable as this guy and wah wah wah, whine, whine whine..."

It's such a lazy argument that doesn't tell the whole story, that Juan Soto hit for a 1.178 OPS in the World Series at 20 years old.  It doesn't tell the whole story that he's one of the brightest, youngest stars in a game that desperately needs bright young stars and still can't figure out how to market them.  WAR doesn't tell the whole story for a guy like Soto just like it didn't for a guy like Ichiro, just like it didn't for Tony Gwynn.  Does anyone want to tell me that Tony Gwynn's greatness and brilliance can simply be boiled down to 69.2 with a straight face?

That brings me to Jeter which...I mean, cry about it a little harder, guys.  Near unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame, really?  Yes, Yankees fans still think he was a great defender because jump throws are impressive...everyone else knows he wasn't.  That's our privilege and their delusion.

But everyone here also knows that a Hall of Fame vote is an emotional one and that, like it or not, Derek Jeter was one of the prime faces of the MLB during his career in the way that someone like Barry Larkin never was.  It's not Jeter's fault that the Reds aren't the Yankees and that the Reds only won 1 World Series during Larkin's career compared to what Jeter was a part of.  

But that's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

Who's using WAR as an argument against Soto? His WAR total for his age is insanely high. Would it be higher if he was better at defense? Of course, but he's such an amazing hitter at such a young age it really doesn't matter. No team in baseball would turn down Juan Soto because of his defense. If he keeps hitting like this, he'll be super valuable even as a full-time DH.

The fact he has 31 career WAR before the age of 26 does tell you Soto is one of the brightest young stars. It doesn't tell you he OPS'd 1.178 in the World Series, but you looked that up just fine anyway.

Tony Gwynn got his 69.2 in a pretty unique way, and he revolutionized hitting. Had he done what everyone else was doing, he'd have probably had less than 69.2 WAR and may not have been a Hall of Famer. If you're saying nobody looked at Gwynn's WAR when voting to elect him to the Hall, you're probably right. And maybe the problem with the Hall is people aren't looking at WAR enough. Sure, there are players who belong in the Hall for reasons beyond counting stats. I'm not saying Gwynn isn't one of those people. But ignoring WAR is how we get pretty good players like Harold Baines alongside the likes of Micky Mantle. If you're under 60 WAR for your career, there should be SERIOUS questions whether you belong in the Hall. If you're over 70, you should almost certainly be in.

I don't think even Jeter's biggest detractors think he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame on account his numbers. They just think he's somewhat overrated by a lot of casual fans and media types, and they're right. Especially on defense.

Not sure what your point about Jeter/Larkin is. They're both in the Hall of Fame and deservedly so.

That may be how the cookie crumbles, but the voters can do better, and I think as they get younger and more intellectual they will.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Tony Gwynn got his 69.2 in a pretty unique way, and he revolutionized hitting.

 

How did he revolutionize hitting?

Ted Williams revolutionized hitting.

Gwynn did it in an old school fashion and very few players after him chose to emulate him.

[Just Regular]

Rod Carew was the original Tony Gwynn by the happenstance of when I was born, and I'd guess there were other hit 'em where they ain't guys before Wee Willie Keeler.

Luis Arraez today is so much fun as a rarer outlier as Turn and Burn has basically been proven to be run favorable in general.

I do think Sigbots value the Nori Aoki/Adam Frazier-y skillset as more resilient against the best of Kyle Boddy's brightest pupils.

Best on Best in October is when baseball gifts amazing competitions, and Soto beating all of Hader, Kershaw and Cole to drag that almost failed Strasburg-Bryce-Scherzer roster to its one shining moment is one of the most brilliant runs I've seen.

Corbin Burnes is probably the best pitcher in the league (sorry, Seth Lugo) but I'll feel like he's a touchdown underdog in the basic building block of the pitcher-hitter matchup.