The 2024 Trade Deadline

[RZNJ]

Just now, drjohnnyfever1 said:

I agree, but it's also not Holliday for name the guy, which I think is silly.  The point is I feel like they were in the main aisle in the offseason when they traded for Burnes; that might have been their splash for this year.  Certainly Kimbrel was a main aisle purchase...  I don't know they are in the main aisle anymore.

I would consider Fedde the main aisle along with relievers like Scott and Estevez.

[G54377]

I don't like the idea of parting with significant prospects for marginal players. For comparison's sake, we traded for Flaherty last year and gave up basically nothing. Flaherty (even mid season last year) is about as good as some of the guys we are thinking of trading real prospects for. Even if you get an additional year(s) of control, guys like Efflin I'm not trading someone like Norby for. I think we can do better if we are going to jet out the Norbys and Beavers of the world.

[drjohnnyfever1]

3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm not @drjohnnyfever1 but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night! LOL.  Anyway, it seemed that he was saying that he feels that this may be the way the O's go, as opposed to what he personally thinks is the best way to go about things.

Lol!  Correct, dude!

I'm not against anything.  I just feel like maybe the expectations are a little higher than they need to be.  We don't need a number one SP - I mean, it would be great, but the value/cost at this moment would be bad, imo.  So I think there's the chance he's shopping at Ollie's.  Nothing wrong with that to me.  I'm just wondering if there are targets out there that someone is familiar with that would cost little instead of the guys being talked about - top prospects, Kjerstadt, etc.

Other than Buddy Groom, LOL, there are no answers.  Fuji was almost equivalent to what I'm talking about here.  I just don't know who as I don't watch games around the league as I know many others here do.

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

I agree, but it's also not Holliday for name the guy, which I think is silly.  The point is I feel like they were in the main aisle in the offseason when they traded for Burnes; that might have been their splash for this year.  Certainly Kimbrel was a main aisle purchase...  I don't know they are in the main aisle anymore.

Why wouldn’t they be? Unless you believe that Rubenstein needs to use the franchise as a cash grab like John Angelos did.

Money should be available and then some, as well as the motivation/will to actually win a World Series. Rubenstien stated that as a goal since his arrival. Angelos (the son) NEVER spoke in that fashion, balked at the mere mention of resigning young elite players, and most spoke of non-baseball related issues when talking to the media. Seemed he was interested in everything but the team actually winning a championship.

[tom_o'malley]

I’m sure this has been discussed somewhere in this thread, but what would it take to pry one of Seattle’s starters?  Starting with a package of Mayo and Norby— would HK + be enough as headliners?  Too much?  Seems like a good fit as they need major league ready (young) bats. But I wouldn’t trade Mayo + Holliday.   
 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Passan drew this link between Dombrowski and Elias in his big piece for this week.     That's the basic question before us as Elias has excelled setting it all up...he's playing the highest stakes games now.      Adley's 3.5 years is perhaps ballpark similar to the timeframe the Phillies' great players remain a championship caliber nucleus.     Adley's final 3 years - unless payroll grows, the opportunity for rosters with Burnes-Santander-Kimbrel level supporting players may shrink a little.

It's more about ensuring a window doesn't close without a team maximizing its opportunity. In this regard, the Phillies and Orioles are quite similar, though Dombrowski's counterpart in Baltimore, Mike Elias, gets a little more leeway because the Orioles' period of contention is longer than any team's. The Phillies' isn't short, by any means, but every year Bryce Harper (31 years old), Trea Turner (31), J.T. Realmuto (33), Zack Wheeler (34) and Aaron Nola (31) age is a year closer to an inevitable downturn.

That's when, as an executive in charge, you push. And when it comes to a willingness to look past what a computer system suggests is proper value and potentially overpay for talent, nobody matches Dombrowski. Robert fits the bill and fills a need. 

It helps when you can support a payroll over $250 mill like the Phillies can.  They are probably a lot closer to their max payroll than the O's are to their max payroll though.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m not an actuary. That’s @Filmstudy realm. He’s a master at calculating odds.

Here’s what I will say. I think (just my two cents) that Elias should be aiming to come away from the trade deadline with a starting pitcher who is a real difference maker. And hopefully a bullpen arm or two that have power/strikeout stuff (unlike all of our relievers currently not named Kimbrel).

Elias should be trying to increase our odds as high as possible. I don’t know by what percent our odds will increase. But I do know that if we add a top of the rotation type pitcher to what we have, the odds of us likely being successful against ANY TEAM in the Fall will go up.

This again is just my opinion (for whatever that is worth) but it sends the right message to the players that you are invested in truly trying to get this team over the line (World Series trophy). If the message that is sent to the players continues to be “one foot in and one foot out”. I’m not sure if that is a strong appeal to ultra competitors like Gunnar and Adley.

People might say well who cares what the players think? But it is probably going to play a roll (what they think/how they feel) in whether or not they are willing to re-up here longterm. And I can’t envision a version of the Orioles that is as strong and as viable to maximizing the earnings/value of the franchise without them.

I’ve said this before, but I attend a lot of games and I’m around town very often. I see all of the #2 and #35 shirts on people’s backs in the stadium and around the community.

Lastly, I believe that it is very important that we do right for players like Stowers and Norby. I get and I’m sure they understand that there may not be a place for them on the Baltimore Orioles. But you can’t leave guys buried at AAA for years and never give them a chance, especially when we are talking about prime years. These guys only have so many years to make money by playing the game.

If you can’t use them, send them elsewhere. I have never been a big believer that you get rewarded by treating people (and that is what all the players actually are) wrong.

I agree.  If the O's aren't going to go for it when they have their core mostly in their pre arbitration years including Adley and Gunnar and have an actual ace in Burnes already on the team, when are they really going to try to win?  I just watched an online video that Dodgers are trying to trade for Crochet.  It literally made me sick.  Dodgers of course have highest payroll in the game along with the Mets and the Yankees.  They also have a top 5 farm system.  They are still going all out to get better.  O's will probably add another 2023 Flaherty and Fuji type move.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I agree.  If the O's aren't going to go for it when they have their core mostly in their pre arbitration years including Adley and Gunnar and have an actual ace in Burnes already on the team, when are they really going to try to win?  I just watched an online video that Dodgers are trying to trade for Crochet.  It literally made me sick.  Dodgers of course have highest payroll in the game along with the Mets and the Yankees.  They also have a top 5 farm system.  They are still going all out to get better.  O's will probably add another 2023 Flaherty and Fuji type move.

I guess it’s great if you’re a Dodger fan but on some level don’t you say “320M and you’re still not confident you have the team to go all the way”?

 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I guess it’s great if you’re a Dodger fan but on some level don’t you say “320M and you’re still not confident you have the team to go all the way”?

 

I'm sure Dodger fans aren't like that.  I expect they're like Yankee fans and would like to buy/trade for all the best players.  Dodgers are actually way scarier to compete against than the Yankees they are probably the wealthiest team in the majors and run like a small market franchise in that they are trying to exploit market inefficiencies and never waste a dime.

[drjohnnyfever1]

32 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Why wouldn’t they be? Unless you believe that Rubenstein needs to use the franchise as a cash grab like John Angelos did.

Money should be available and then some, as well as the motivation/will to actually win a World Series. Rubenstien stated that as a goal since his arrival. Angelos (the son) NEVER spoke in that fashion, balked at the mere mention of resigning young elite players, and most spoke of non-baseball related issues when talking to the media. Seemed he was interested in everything but the team actually winning a championship.

But don't we need to get rid of the previous dogma - we need to spend when we're good to win?  It has nothing to do with Angelos or anything else along those lines.  If anything, my question is - knowing how good we are now, and having proven it, how can we maintain the guys that are still in the audition phase of the ascension to the bigs, without paying too high get some help now.  It's not like they're failing.

I just think Elias might be thinking stop gap, not the main aisle deals.  I'm fine with that, but it seems like many just want him to give stuff away to get something big right now, and I don't think I agree with that - and I kind of hope Elias doesn't either, to be honest.

Rubes will spend money, but after Angelos, it still won't be enough for some.  He doesn't need to prove he will by signing off on the trade of a top player/prospect.  I would be completely satisfied with an announcement that they had reached a long term agreement with Adley or Gunnar right now.  But I'm not waiting for Rubes to prove himself and trust that all I've seen from him so far is that he will differentiate himself from the previous ownership in a meaningful and real way - like he already has, in some ways, when his and the team's time is right.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm sure Dodger fans aren't like that.  I expect they're like Yankee fans and would like to buy/trade for all the best players.  Dodgers are actually way scarier to compete against than the Yankees they are probably the wealthiest team in the majors and run like a small market franchise in that they are trying to exploit market inefficiencies and never waste a dime.

320M and they need a pitcher.  I think they wasted a dime somewhere.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

22 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm sure Dodger fans aren't like that.  I expect they're like Yankee fans and would like to buy/trade for all the best players.  Dodgers are actually way scarier to compete against than the Yankees they are probably the wealthiest team in the majors and run like a small market franchise in that they are trying to exploit market inefficiencies and never waste a dime.

I can assure you a segment of Dodgers fans are exactly like that.

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

But don't we need to get rid of the previous dogma - we need to spend when we're good to win?  It has nothing to do with Angelos or anything else along those lines.  If anything, my question is - knowing how good we are now, and having proven it, how can we maintain the guys that are still in the audition phase of the ascension to the bigs, without paying too high get some help now.  It's not like they're failing.

I just think Elias might be thinking stop gap, not the main aisle deals.  I'm fine with that, but it seems like many just want him to give stuff away to get something big right now, and I don't think I agree with that - and I kind of hope Elias doesn't either, to be honest.

Rubes will spend money, but after Angelos, it still won't be enough for some.  He doesn't need to prove he will by signing off on the trade of a top player/prospect.  I would be completely satisfied with an announcement that they had reached a long term agreement with Adley or Gunnar right now.  But I'm not waiting for Rubes to prove himself and trust that all I've seen from him so far is that he will differentiate himself from the previous ownership in a meaningful and real way - like he already has, in some ways, when his and the team's time is right.

We see things from a completely different perspective. Which is fine.

IMO the time for evaluation is over and the time is right to starting seriously trying to win championships. (It’s only been over 40 years since our last World Series appearance).

Trading Mayo or Basallo or Holliday is in no way giving them away. It’s doing what’s necessary to acquire the best starting pitcher that you can for the next 3 postseasons.

[jcaponio]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I think Eflin v. Bassitt is an interesting compare-contrast if TOR-TBR deal 1.5 season guys, and the clubs get over their divisional angst.

Will the Rays do better than a Cowser or Kjerstad if they move Eflin?    I don't think Elias' guys a step down from them get them on a 1:1 basis.

I would be very upset if ME traded either Cowser or Kjerstad for 1.5 years of Eflin and his 4.19 ERA. 

[Greg Pappas]

I thought I'd share some interesting exchanges with Tigers fans on the MotownForums site.  You may have to hit the expand button multiple times to see it all.

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Hi all.  As an Orioles fan I want to discuss a potential Skubal trade.  I'd like to hear your thoughts on what you feel would be a reasonable trade between the O's-Tigers.  As many of you know, we have a top farm system (if not the top), and it would seem most fan-based and writer-based proposals begin with one of Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, or Kjerstad.  So, what are your thoughts?

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Tigermojo replied: Probably the best hitter they could get one for one or maybe two for one. Tigers need help on the infield, so Holliday looks really good. The usual bulk deal 3, 4, 5 for 1 doesn't really help right now.

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Long Live Maroth replied: Personally, I think the conversation is either Holliday plus or Mayo and Basallo plus as your pieces and build around those. Skubal being signed for 2 1/2 years is a big reason for the ask and honestly we probably don't want to trade him so it would have to something along those starting lines. 

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1984 Echoes replied: I assume Holliday is off-limits though.  Unless you say otherwise Greg... that the Orioles are perfectly willing to include Holliday in a package for Skubal. But on the basis that he is off-limits: Mayo, Basallo, and 3 lower level pitchers for Skubal. We'll add spare parts (relievers like Faedo or Foley if you wanted one? Need a catcher? Carson Kelly would be available to round out a package. And/or an OF'er or IF'er...?) Negotiate.

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I replied:   I can almost assure you that the possibility of getting two of the three great prospects is less than 1%.  Holliday plus a lesser prospect, is also quite unlikely, but we have a lot of talent from which to negotiate.  I mentioned a bit ago that I'd personally be agreeable to trading a package similar to 3B Mayo, LHP Povich, and OF Beavers for Skubal.  If something along those lines isn't enough, there's a good chance these teams will go in another direction... and that's okay too.   

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1984 Echoes replied: We already have Dylan Beavers on our team, his name is Parker Meadows.  Skubal is a Cy Young candidate this year, the most dominant pitcher in the Majors the past year, and you'd have him for 2 1/2 more years.  We're just not going to (our GM won't) let him go for a light package, and he'll look at what you're offering and say "not enough". If our ask is too much, and your GM says no, then we just won't get a deal done.

We're not two FA's away... we're a bunch of kids who are learning curves and graduation struggles from AAA to MLB away. We don't know where we actually are. But.. if they catch on quick enough, yes, we're a competitive team, soon. It's just too gray area (too many kids) for anything to be predictable.  We've been discussing, on this site, whether Harris would offer extensions to Flaherty and Kelly and NOT make any major trades at the deadline. And we feel that is just as likely, if not moreso than trading Skubal.  He won't be easily pried away I'm saying.  Flaherty might be available at the deadline, if we don't get any extension done... but at this point, I find it highly doubtful Skubal is available. Unless we're blown away with an offer.   I believe that's where our Team/ and GM are, at this point.

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SoCalTiger replied: Westberg and Mayo. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 9 by Greg Pappas