The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Three Run Homer]

4 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

White Sox, Pale Hoes.

I know the White Sox are bad this year, but this nickname seems extremely harsh.  

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I think you meant this question for someone else. I don’t believe that Bradish is a #4. Another poster proposed a Skubal trade and stated that the order of the top 4 would be Burnes, Skubal, Rodriguez, Bradish.

Gotcha …. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see any of those prospects as being rich but that can be played with.  It was just an example.

It’s more the quantity. If we’re already taking on the full contract, we shouldn’t need to send a bunch of legitimate, albeit non-top-10 prospect names their way. 
 

Timing likely doesn’t work as I bet they’ll wait to the deadline, but taking on the Garcia contract as a significant part of the Luzardo package could make sense. Something like Luzardo and Garcia for Stowers plus some young arms in A-ball/FCL/DSL (maybe another notable prospect)

[Sports Guy]

Just now, BohKnowsBmore said:

It’s more the quantity. If we’re already taking on the full contract, we shouldn’t need to send a bunch of legitimate, albeit non-top-10 prospect names their way. 
 

Timing likely doesn’t work as I bet they’ll wait to the deadline, but taking on the Garcia contract as a significant part of the Luzardo package could make sense. Something like Luzardo and Garcia for Stowers plus some young arms in A-ball/FCL/DSL (maybe another notable prospect)

Yea I disagree.  It’s not like we are taking on a long term deal for 50+ million or something like that. The deal I suggested would be one we should run to the phone to accept…but I personally doubt Miami would be that dumb.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Crochet is such an interesting case because he’s going to have big workload concerns. He’s already almost thrown more innings this year than he has in his entire professional career before this year combined. Obviously the TJS, but he also skipped the minors and is only 24. You’re going to have the pay the price for 2.5 years of a potential ace…but will he wear down or break if you put that workload on him? Lot of risk red flags in a SP who throws in the upper 90s and has already had TJS.

Maybe not this year, but you’re also paying a premium to have him the next two too (at what will probably be cheap arb prices, since he already went through once and got $800k).

If the White Sox kept him, they’d maybe shut him down around 120-140 IP this year, but a contending team is going to obviously want him the whole year and deep into the playoffs. 

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I disagree.  It’s not like we are taking on a long term deal for 50+ million or something like that. The deal I suggested would be one we should run to the phone to accept…but I personally doubt Miami would be that dumb.

Why would you propose a deal that the other team would be dumb to do?

[Bemorewins]

I can see how adding a starter now helps us potentially soften the blow for next season and beyond (if Burnes leaves). But it does not help us to solve our biggest (only) weakness now.

Even if we add a very good/great starter, we will still be susceptible in the late innings (in the postseason) given the current composition of our bullpen.

If we add a starter we are still going to have to give up more players in order to get the necessary talent at to add to the back of the bullpen because the combination of Cano, Kimbrel, and Coulombe (the only one of the trio that I truly trust) is not good enough. And that is not even taking into consideration Kimbrel’s workload concerns. We are not going to be able to protect him (like we have recently) by spacing out his outings, as most of the games have the potential to be close affairs.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Crochet is such an interesting case because he’s going to have big workload concerns. He’s already almost thrown more innings this year than he has in his entire professional career before this year combined. Obviously the TJS, but he also skipped the minors and is only 24. You’re going to have the pay the price for 2.5 years of a potential ace…but will he wear down or break if you put that workload on him? Lot of risk red flags in a SP who throws in the upper 90s and has already had TJS.

Maybe not this year, but you’re also paying a premium to have him the next two too (at what will probably be cheap arb prices, since he already went through once and got $800k).

If the White Sox kept him, they’d maybe shut him down around 120-140 IP this year, but a contending team is going to obviously want him the whole year and deep into the playoffs. 

The WS should run to the phone to trade Crochet this year, if the return is high.

They should have traded Robert in the offseason and screwed that up although he’s back now and if he has a big year, that will obviously help.

 

[sportsfan8703]

Why do we need another SP again?  And an expensive one at that?  We have 6 currently. You can only throw 3 in a playoff series. What’s the thinking behind this?

Burnes, Bradish, Grayson is maybe the best in baseball?

Also, we get to play the Yankees 9 more times.  We’re in control of our own destiny.  Might just have to go 6-3.  

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The WS should run to the phone to trade Crochet this year, if the return is high.

They should have traded Robert in the offseason and screwed that up although he’s back now and if he has a big year, that will obviously help.

 

Passan’s article indicated they are open to trading both of them. With the way Getz approached the Cease trade, could just be that he’s of the mindset that the trade deadline is the optimal time to maximize returns. If Crochet stays healthy and pitching at this level, I think he gets moved, and same for Robert if he shows he’s healthy and produces at last year’s level again.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Passan’s article indicated they are open to trading both of them. With the way Getz approached the Cease trade, could just be that he’s of the mindset that the trade deadline is the optimal time to maximize returns. If Crochet stays healthy and pitching at this level, I think he gets moved, and same for Robert if he shows he’s healthy and produces at last year’s level again.

Robert could end up being an offseason thing depending on how quickly he starts to hit and how he looks overall.

Crochet is interesting because teams have to believe in him for a full season with the IP numbers being what they are already. Will they pay enough to justify trading him or do you roll the dice and keep him?

If you get a good package for him, you have to trade him even if there’s a chance his value increases 13-18 months from now.

[interloper]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why do we need another SP again?  And an expensive one at that?  We have 6 currently. You can only throw 3 in a playoff series. What’s the thinking behind this?

Burnes, Bradish, Grayson is maybe the best in baseball?

Also, we get to play the Yankees 9 more times.  We’re in control of our own destiny.  Might just have to go 6-3.  

 

I don't know about NEED, but we're one or two more SP injury away from being in some trouble.

-Grayson is going to hit innings highs this year, hopefully he stays healthy
-Bradish is already getting baby'd in early June and just had a worrying start, who knows how long the elbow holds up
-Suarez is 34 and on track to pitch a LOT of ML innings for the first time in a long time
-Who knows what Povich will end up giving you, he just has his worst start of the year at AAA

Kremer coming back this month will help a lot, assuming his thing clears up. 

Good amount of question marks. Not saying I think we're desperate for SP, but I'm definitely keeping an ear out if I'm Elias and something makes sense. It's already enough to make him go out and sign Teheran for emergency depth. 

Edited June 5 by interloper

[e16bball]

At this point, the Astros have to be starting to make out the writing on the wall for this year, with the news that Javier and Urquidy are both going down for TJS this week. They’re already 6 games below .500, and their rotation is hanging together by a thread, one more forearm twinge from absolute disaster.

One can only imagine how much Elias and Sig would relish the idea of shopping from the shelves that they once helped to stock.

The bullpen is the first place I’d look to upgrade, and they’ve got two guys in Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly who fit the typical “trade deadline reliever target” profile pretty well. Both miss bats, both have strong track records, both have worse results this year than the underlying peripherals would suggest.

In the rotation, Verlander continues to be a viable SP3 or SP4, despite a HR rate that suggests he should go home and spend more time with Kate Upton. If the injury issues escalate for us, you could do worse in terms of a couple-months Band-Aid for the rotation. 

And then there’s the lineup, where things would get very interesting. The Astros have two gentlemen by the names of Bregman and Tucker, who were both drafted (in part) by our intrepid leader back in 2015 and who are both rapidly approaching free agency (this offseason for Bregman, next offseason for Tucker). They would both fit relatively nicely into the soft spots of our current group (replacing Mateo and Hays/Mullins among the primary starters). Bregman, in particular, might make a ton of sense on a stretch-run rental basis if Holliday and/or Mayo haven’t yet knocked the door down by mid-July.

[interloper]

28 minutes ago, e16bball said:

At this point, the Astros have to be starting to make out the writing on the wall for this year, with the news that Javier and Urquidy are both going down for TJS this week. They’re already 6 games below .500, and their rotation is hanging together by a thread, one more forearm twinge from absolute disaster.

One can only imagine how much Elias and Sig would relish the idea of shopping from the shelves that they once helped to stock.

The bullpen is the first place I’d look to upgrade, and they’ve got two guys in Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly who fit the typical “trade deadline reliever target” profile pretty well. Both miss bats, both have strong track records, both have worse results this year than the underlying peripherals would suggest.

In the rotation, Verlander continues to be a viable SP3 or SP4, despite a HR rate that suggests he should go home and spend more time with Kate Upton. If the injury issues escalate for us, you could do worse in terms of a couple-months Band-Aid for the rotation. 

And then there’s the lineup, where things would get very interesting. The Astros have two gentlemen by the names of Bregman and Tucker, who were both drafted (in part) by our intrepid leader back in 2015 and who are both rapidly approaching free agency (this offseason for Bregman, next offseason for Tucker). They would both fit relatively nicely into the soft spots of our current group (replacing Mateo and Hays/Mullins among the primary starters). Bregman, in particular, might make a ton of sense on a stretch-run rental basis if Holliday and/or Mayo haven’t yet knocked the door down by mid-July.

Dunno about that:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/dana-brown-dont-see-any-scenario-where-astros-sell.html

[dystopia]

It is amazing that offense is so down this year with all the good to elite pitchers that are out with TJS. 
 

The ball is definitely dead this year. Just look at this: