Is Elias/SIGBOT and crew really good at drafting and development after the 1st round?

[LookitsPuck]

18 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Gunnar, Ortiz, Mayo, Stowers, Hernaiz (turned into Irvin), and Norby is pretty solid. Beavers could be coming soon. Handley is still interesting. I would guess that group stacks up as well as any organization in the game.

100%. If you're trading players like Ortiz and Hernaiz for players like Burnes and Irvin and they're contributing, I think you need to count them as contributors.

Even Stowers, the book hasn't been written about him, yet. 

It's still so very early. During the season and in some of the draft picks careers.

For those curious, here are all the 2nd round picks under the Elias regime:

• 2019: Stowers - still TBD, but trending in a positive direction
• 2019: Gunnar - amazing
• 2020: Haskin - think the injury has hampered him a bit. 
• 2021: Trimble - jury still out, but hasn't been promisng
• 2021: Norby - looks very promising
• 2022: Fabian - I'm still high on Fabian, but he's currently stalling a bit at AA both this year and last year
• 2022: Wagner - I'm high on Wagner, hitting well at Aberdeen, but still very early and SSS
• 2023: Baumeister - looks very promising 
• 2023: Horvath -  hit very well last year, sluggish this year

I think generally 1st/2nd round picks have been pretty spot on so far, but still early on some of these guys.

The 3rd round picks...just haven't worked out so far. 

4th round picks have been really good - Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz

5th round I've been happy about so far - Hernaiz flipped for Irvin, I really dig Baumler when he's healthy, I'm curious about Tavera as a BP arm, and Trace Bright is an interesting player

Later on, Creed Willems is an interesting player to me. Still young, and when he makes strides, he really rockets. 

Overall, I've been very happy with the overall package that Elias has brought to the table as far as drafting (both amateur and international) as well as scouting and developing. Whatever they have to target bullpen arms and starters in trades or off the waiver wire has been top notch.

Are they perfect? Nah. But this is lightyears different than the Duquette regime. It's not even close. 

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Norby hit a HR last night. What do you mean Elias isn’t drafting well?   An unintentional Reverse Jinx thread?

Norby, Stowers, Hernaiz, and Ortiz, would be probably better than what most other teams have produced post 1st rd over the same time period. Gotta toss Mayo in there too.

 I don’t follow the minors as closely as some this year, but is there a team in baseball that’s put 4 post 1st rd picks to the majors since Elias got here?

The under performers so far would be Rhodes, Wagner, and Horvath. All really athletic dudes. Definitely too early to give up on Wagner and Horvath. Who knows what Nolan McLean would’ve been?  Is Fabian really underperforming. 

Rhodes kind of seems like a poor man’s Reimold. Athletic, more healthy, but without the big power tool. Rhodes is a guy that I could see grinding at AAA while we have control and eventually being a RH version of Stowers. An up/down RHH to pair with our LHH OF. Or he could be a throw in for a trade. 

I really wanted them to land Nolan McLean. That was a bummer. That said, this is all incredibly well said. And it is too soon to write off any of the guys you mentioned. 

[LookitsPuck]

Looking at the Orioles Top 30 from MLB.com, here's the breakdown by acquisition type (amateur draft, international draft, trade):

• Amateur: 18
• International: 8
• Trade: 4

That's encouraging. Of that list, breakdown by year acquired:

• 2020: 4
• 2021: 8
• 2022: 13
• 2023: 5

There was a massive influence of talent in 2022. Cade Povich, McDermott, Seth Johnson, Juan Nunez all came in via trades that year. Of the remaining 9, 5 are from the amateur draft and the other 4 from international. 

It looks to be a pretty solid balance thus far. I think we start to see international get higher and amateur drop a bit. 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

100%. If you're trading players like Ortiz and Hernaiz for players like Burnes and Irvin and they're contributing, I think you need to count them as contributors.

Even Stowers, the book hasn't been written about him, yet. 

It's still so very early. During the season and in some of the draft picks careers.

For those curious, here are all the 2nd round picks under the Elias regime:

• 2019: Stowers - still TBD, but trending in a positive direction
• 2019: Gunnar - amazing
• 2020: Haskin - think the injury has hampered him a bit. 
• 2021: Trimble - jury still out, but hasn't been promisng
• 2021: Norby - looks very promising
• 2022: Fabian - I'm still high on Fabian, but he's currently stalling a bit at AA both this year and last year
• 2022: Wagner - I'm high on Wagner, hitting well at Aberdeen, but still very early and SSS
• 2023: Baumeister - looks very promising 
• 2023: Horvath -  hit very well last year, sluggish this year

I think generally 1st/2nd round picks have been pretty spot on so far, but still early on some of these guys.

The 3rd round picks...just haven't worked out so far. 

4th round picks have been really good - Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz

5th round I've been happy about so far - Hernaiz flipped for Irvin, I really dig Baumler when he's healthy, I'm curious about Tavera as a BP arm, and Trace Bright is an interesting player

Later on, Creed Willems is an interesting player to me. Still young, and when he makes strides, he really rockets. 

Overall, I've been very happy with the overall package that Elias has brought to the table as far as drafting (both amateur and international) as well as scouting and developing. Whatever they have to target bullpen arms and starters in trades or off the waiver wire has been top notch.

Are they perfect? Nah. But this is lightyears different than the Duquette regime. It's not even close. 

Why are you high on Fabian?   It’s his second season in AA and he’s hitting .230 and still striking out a lot.

Wagner was only in Aberdeen on rehab.  He didn’t hit that well in Aberdeen last year, really struggled at Bowie and is even worse there this year.   You mention the 3rd rounders, all college position players, without mentioning one name.   That says it all.   Again, we’re talking about college position players rounds 2-4 starting with the 2020 draft.  We acknowledge that Stowers and Ortiz were good picks.  Too early to say much about the 2023 draft but Bradfield looks ok, not great, and Horvath, Josenberger, off to slow starts.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I was only responding to the part in your post about the success of players developed by Boddy.  Your post made it sound like you hadn’t seen any data on his ability to develop pitchers so I replied with a data point.  
  

I was just referring to Orioles organization pitchers. I'm sure Boddy has successes or he would not have been hired. 

Again I'm not saying he's good or bad, but I am a "results matter" guy. Show me the results at the big league level with guys they drafted and developed. 

As I stated, I don't know if this is a draft or development issue or a little of both? All I know is we're five drafts in and there are no results from drafting and developing pitchers so far.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

100%. If you're trading players like Ortiz and Hernaiz for players like Burnes and Irvin and they're contributing, I think you need to count them as contributors.

Even Stowers, the book hasn't been written about him, yet. 

It's still so very early. During the season and in some of the draft picks careers.

For those curious, here are all the 2nd round picks under the Elias regime:

• 2019: Stowers - still TBD, but trending in a positive direction
• 2019: Gunnar - amazing
• 2020: Haskin - think the injury has hampered him a bit. 
• 2021: Trimble - jury still out, but hasn't been promisng
• 2021: Norby - looks very promising
• 2022: Fabian - I'm still high on Fabian, but he's currently stalling a bit at AA both this year and last year
• 2022: Wagner - I'm high on Wagner, hitting well at Aberdeen, but still very early and SSS
• 2023: Baumeister - looks very promising 
• 2023: Horvath -  hit very well last year, sluggish this year

I think generally 1st/2nd round picks have been pretty spot on so far, but still early on some of these guys.

The 3rd round picks...just haven't worked out so far. 

4th round picks have been really good - Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz

5th round I've been happy about so far - Hernaiz flipped for Irvin, I really dig Baumler when he's healthy, I'm curious about Tavera as a BP arm, and Trace Bright is an interesting player

Later on, Creed Willems is an interesting player to me. Still young, and when he makes strides, he really rockets. 

Overall, I've been very happy with the overall package that Elias has brought to the table as far as drafting (both amateur and international) as well as scouting and developing. Whatever they have to target bullpen arms and starters in trades or off the waiver wire has been top notch.

Are they perfect? Nah. But this is lightyears different than the Duquette regime. It's not even close. 

Like a few others, you totally and utterly missed the point and your Pollyanna viewpoint is on FULL display when you say the jury is still out on Trimble.

Oh well, I can only provide the information for discussion, not change people's minds who's minds are already made up. 

[Too Tall]

The Givens - Our infield right now is made up of draft picks and reclamation projects (someone else's draft picks.) Same for outfield. Pitching is light on draft picks and heavy on trades that we developed or reclamation projects save Burnes, Kimbrel, and Irvin. The first five years seem to have gone pretty well developmentally. 

 My Take - I personally think the question posed in the OP is premature. Besides the regular draft, I'm anxious to see how our new academy and recent entry into the Latin American Market plays out re acquiring and developing talent. To be fair, I don't want to lose sight of 2019 and Elias's starting point. Plus, as noted above, there have been a number of waiver reclamation projects that have been positively developed. Someone else's draft picks if you would.

IMO, we are light years from where we were when Elias took over some five years ago. On so many fronts. So, now drafting lower but with near equal Latin American status and a different owner, let's see what the next five years bring. Elias has said he wants a continuous supply of talent. I am anxious to see if he can deliver and the OP raises questions to follow in this regard. TBD 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

 

As I stated, I don't know if this is a draft or development issue or a little of both? All I know is we're five drafts in and there are no results from drafting and developing pitchers so far.

Maybe they just want to rely on getting pitching from other avenues.  I'm not sure why this would be, but you look at a guy like Bradish...Elias and Sig get a look at what some of these guys can do in other systems before running the risk of drafting them and seeing them not pan out on their own.  

Essentially, they get to draft all the bats they want, make trades for other pitchers from other organizations (Bradish, Povich, McDermott) cause they get a better idea of what they've got after they've been in pro-ball for a little bit.  Let other teams draft some of these guys, see who's got upside and who doesn't have upside.  Let some other teams not have their pitching prospects pan out.

I admit that's a big leap in logic and it's not what I'd do, I don't think that's what you'd do either.  But I also can't ignore the patterns of how they've stocked some of the arms in the system.  Also, signing guys from the Dominican like De Leon.  

 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

We aren't getting a bag of balls for Hays.  Mullins *may* have value, but it won't be much.  Probably a relief prospect at best, or maybe a lotto ticket in rookie/DSL ball.

Sounds like your opinion backed up by nothing vs what Elias showed he could get for Mancini and Lopez.  Facts are facts.   Elias likely gets decent prospects for Hays and Mullins if he trades them this coming off season.

[Hallas]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like your opinion backed up by nothing vs what Elias showed he could get for Mancini and Lopez.  Facts are facts.   Elias likely gets decent prospects for Hays and Mullins if he trades them this coming off season.

Those aren't comparable, like, at all.  Mancini was still hitting the ball when we traded him, and the Astros had a temporary need due to a midseason injury.  Lopez was our closer and was pitching well.  Playoff contenders have a tendency to overpay for relief help.  If we trade in the offseason we're not likely to get any benefits from teams that need immediate help due to injury, and while we could trade to a contender before the deadline, the window for those guys to start playing a lot better and showing contenders that they're worth trading for is pretty small.

 

Hays isn't likely to get the playing time to get his stats out of jail this year, and I doubt teams are going to be enthusiastic to pay arb3 prices for a player whose athleticism is disappearing into thin air, and got leapfrogged by our stash of rookies. While Mullins is going to get the playing time, he's got a long way to go to dig himself out of his hole, and he has a multi-year downward trajectory with the bat that's pretty difficult to ignore, to go along with the fact that his outfield defense is starting to deteriorate a bit.

 

A lot can happen over the course of the season.  My predictions here are predicated on them playing well for the rest of the year, but not necessarily hitting out of their minds.  If one of them turns into Aaron Judge for a month then obviously we have a different situation.  As it stands right now, we might get an ok package for Mullins but I'm not even sure if Hays is worth a tender this coming offseason unless someone gets hurt and he goes on an absolute tear.  I wanted to trade him last offseason because he played well in 2023, but his constant issues with nagging injuries led me to think that he would have difficulty replicating his performance, especially with so many players in the farm that could take his playing time.

Edited June 5 by Hallas

[Jammer7]

In general, the Orioles drafted college hitters over HS bats and pitchers from 2019-2022. True. I believe the 2019 draft was run by Elias. After that, from what was written then, he let the Scouting Director run it after the first round or so. Brad Ciolek, and now Matt Blood. 

Did they miss on some, sure. Rhodes, Trimble, Haskin and Wagner raised my eyebrows when they were drafted. All had upside. Trimble and Haskin had too many injuries. Rhodes has had issues elevating the ball, but the exit velos are good. I liked the profiles, but particularly Haskin, for me, was a bit of a reach. 

Fabian’s K rate is too high, but it is down from 2023. He is still in play, but it isn’t looking great at the moment. At this point, a 4th Of profile, and that may be all we get from this group.

Tavera was a reach. McLean would have been nice to sign, but the medicals were sketchy. Trace Bright is…a bright spot, though. lol

I agree. They can do better. They gambled on developing the upsides. I hope it continues. HS picks can provide a better shot, but sign ability is a factor most of the time. 

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Those aren't comparable, like, at all.  Mancini was still hitting the ball when we traded him, and the Astros had a temporary need due to a midseason injury.  Lopez was our closer and was pitching well.  Playoff contenders have a tendency to overpay for relief help.  If we trade in the offseason we're not likely to get any benefits from teams that need immediate help due to injury, and while we could trade to a contender before the deadline, the window for those guys to start playing a lot better and showing contenders that they're worth trading for is pretty small.

 

Hays isn't likely to get the playing time to get his stats out of jail this year, and I doubt teams are going to be enthusiastic to pay arb3 prices for a player whose athleticism is disappearing into thin air, and got leapfrogged by our stash of rookies. While Mullins is going to get the playing time, he's got a long way to go to dig himself out of his hole, and he has a multi-year downward trajectory with the bat that's pretty difficult to ignore, to go along with the fact that his outfield defense is starting to deteriorate a bit.

 

A lot can happen over the course of the season.  My predictions here are predicated on them playing well for the rest of the year, but not necessarily hitting out of their minds.  If one of them turns into Aaron Judge for a month then obviously we have a different situation.  As it stands right now, we might get an ok package for Mullins but I'm not even sure if Hays is worth a tender this coming offseason unless someone gets hurt and he goes on an absolute tear.  I wanted to trade him last offseason because he played well in 2023, but his constant issues with nagging injuries led me to think that he would have difficulty replicating his performance, especially with so many players in the farm that could take his playing time.

Hays looks like he is hitting the ball well right now.   Hyde will give him playing time especially with Cowser slumping.   There is a lot of things that can happen over the next 4 or 5 month.   I don't count either player out of improving their trade value.

[Frobby]

To give some context to this discussion, I spent some time gathering data on every team’s draft during Elias’ time with the Orioles.   Here’s a summary of what I found.

235 players drafted from 2019 to now have reached the major leagues, and they have produced 203.9 WAR to date.  That averages out to 7.8 players and 6.8 WAR per team.  Of those totals, 66 players (2.2 per team) were first rounders who produced 99.0 WAR (3.3 per team); 169 (5.6 per team) were from later rounds and have produced 104.9 WAR (3.5 per team).

The Orioles easily lead MLB in WAR produced by the players they’ve drafted who’ve reached the majors, at 28.0 WAR.  The other top teams are Atlanta 20.1, Cincinnati 15.2, Kansas City 14.8, NY Yankees 12.7, and Arizona at 12.6.   In terms of total players who’ve reached the majors, it’s SEA 14, AZD 13, ATL 13, MIA 12, LAD 11, and BAL and DET 10.

As to the 66 players drafted in the first round who’ve reached the majors, the DBacks lead with 6, while the Orioles, Rangers and Pirates have produced 5.  Nobody else has more than 3.   In terms of 1st round WAR, the O’s again easily lead with 15.6, followed by the Royals 10.0, the DBacks 9.7, Reds 7.6, and Blue Jays 7.1.  

As to the 169 players drafted after the first round who nave reached the majors,  the Mariners lead with 12, followed by Atlanta and Miami at 10.   The Orioles, with 5, are just below the 5.6 mean, and tied for 16th most.   However, when it comes to WAR, the Orioles rank second at 12.4, trailing only the Braves at 17.7.  Cleveland ranks a distant 3rd at 8.4.   

It is important to note that this is a very incomplete picture.  There are many players from these drafts who will reach the majors, but haven’t yet.  Of the 235 players to reach the majors so far, 133 were drafted in 2019, 46 in 2020 (which was only a 5-round draft), 41 in 2021, 12 in 2022, and 3 in 2023.   We know from history that eventually about 150 players per draft will end up getting some time in the majors (probably considerably less for the short 2020 draft).   

But that’s partly the point.  It will be a long time before we really know how Elias & co. did in the post-1st round phase of the 2019-23 drafts, and how that compares with other teams. For now, we know that they drafted one superstar in the second round.  The ultimate future of the other four who’ve reached the majors (Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz and Norby) is uncertain, though I’d certainly invest in some Ortiz futures. And who else will emerge as a legit major leaguer, for the O’s and other team, is hard to say.  There are tons of guys who’ve debuted but have struggled so far, who eventually will find their footing.  Check back again in a couple of years.   
 

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To give some context to this discussion, I spent some time gathering data on every team’s draft during Elias’ time with the Orioles.   Here’s a summary of what I found.

235 players drafted from 2019 to now have reached the major leagues, and they have produced 203.9 WAR to date.  That averages out to 7.8 players and 6.8 WAR per team.  Of those totals, 66 players (2.2 per team) were first rounders who produced 99.0 WAR (3.3 per team); 169 (5.6 per team) were from later rounds and have produced 104.9 WAR (3.5 per team).

The Orioles easily lead MLB in WAR produced by the players they’ve drafted who’ve reached the majors, at 28.0 WAR.  The other top teams are Atlanta 20.1, Cincinnati 15.2, Kansas City 14.8, NY Yankees 12.7, and Arizona at 12.6.   In terms of total players who’ve reached the majors, it’s SEA 14, AZD 13, ATL 13, MIA 12, LAD 11, and BAL and DET 10.

As to the 66 players drafted in the first round who’ve reached the majors, the DBacks lead with 6, while the Orioles, Rangers and Pirates have produced 5.  Nobody else has more than 3.   In terms of 1st round WAR, the O’s again easily lead with 15.6, followed by the Royals 10.0, the DBacks 9.7, Reds 7.6, and Blue Jays 7.1.  

As to the 169 players drafted after the first round who nave reached the majors,  the Mariners lead with 12, followed by Atlanta and Miami at 10.   The Orioles, with 5, are just below the 5.6 mean, and tied for 16th most.   However, when it comes to WAR, the Orioles rank second at 12.4, trailing only the Braves at 17.7.  Cleveland ranks a distant 3rd at 8.4.   

It is important to note that this is a very incomplete picture.  There are many players from these drafts who will reach the majors, but haven’t yet.  Of the 235 players to reach the majors so far, 133 were drafted in 2019, 46 in 2020 (which was only a 5-round draft), 41 in 2021, 12 in 2022, and 3 in 2023.   We know from history that eventually about 150 players per draft will end up getting some time in the majors (probably considerably less for the short 2020 draft).   

But that’s partly the point.  It will be a long time before we really know how Elias & co. did in the post-1st round phase of the 2019-23 drafts, and how that compares with other teams. For now, we know that they drafted one superstar in the second round.  The ultimate future of the other four who’ve reached the majors (Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz and Norby) is uncertain, though I’d certainly invest in some Ortiz futures. And who else will emerge as a legit major leaguer, for the O’s and other team, is hard to say.  There are tons of guys who’ve debuted but have struggled so far, who eventually will find their footing.  Check back again in a couple of years.   
 

You know you are retired, don't you.  You don't have to work so hard.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

You know you are retired, don't you.  You don't have to work so hard.

I don’t consider it work.  I consider it to be satisfying my curiosity.  This did take a bit of time though.  

I should have mentioned that there are four teams that to date have produced negative WAR from the 2019-23 drafts - Colorado (-2.5), Houston (-1.6), Boston (-0.8) and San Francisco (-0.1).  Ouch!