Aron Estrada 2024

[Rbiggs2525]

On 8/5/2024 at 11:30 AM, Frobby said:

I’d say my biggest reservation about Estrada at this point is his defensive profile.  He seems a bit like a LHB Norby.

Estrada has 2 years to work on footwork and flexibility to improve defense to be at same age Norby was when we drafted him. I do not think arm strength gets much improved after 18 years old but his speed gives me hope he can become a better defender.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Estrada has 2 years to work on footwork and flexibility to improve defense to be at same age Norby was when we drafted him. I do not think arm strength gets much improved after 18 years old but his speed gives me hope he can become a better defender.

Yeah, I think that’s fair.  Like I said, it’s my biggest reservation about him.  That doesn’t mean I’ve decided he’ll forever be a mediocre defender.   It’s just a worry that I don’t have about his bat.  

[Jammer7]

21 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Estrada has 2 years to work on footwork and flexibility to improve defense to be at same age Norby was when we drafted him. I do not think arm strength gets much improved after 18 years old but his speed gives me hope he can become a better defender.

Arm strength can be improved significantly after 18, depending on what the biomechanics look like. The body is still filling out as well.

It could be flexibility, strength or mechanical issues. All can be improved to some extent. Some are certainly predisposed to throw harder than others. Mullins improved greatly, for instance. 

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Arm strength can be improved significantly after 18, depending on what the biomechanics look like. The body is still filling out as well.

It could be flexibility, strength or mechanical issues. All can be improved to some extent. Some are certainly predisposed to throw harder than others. Mullins improved greatly, for instance. 

I clearly never was a professional ball player, but I did play in a summer college league and made the cut from 90 outfielder to the top 6 at an open Orioles tryout in Memorial Stadium and got to play in a game there.

The reason I say that was my former high school coach was one of the associate scouts at the tryout and when I made my throws from the outfield and then ran off, he said to me, "Where did that arm come from?" 

Now I always had a good arm, but I 100% threw the hardest of my life between 20-21 years old. When I was pitching for the summer league team that year, someone told me I was throwing in the upper 80s from the mound.

Like Estrada, I too was 5-8 so not a guy that fills out and throws harder, but I do agree that an arm can get stronger after 18-years old.

Now that he's definitely on the prospect scene, I'm going to do more of a hard look at Estrada's defense to make sure I understand his strengths and weaknesses more.

[Rbiggs2525]

35 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Arm strength can be improved significantly after 18, depending on what the biomechanics look like. The body is still filling out as well.

It could be flexibility, strength or mechanical issues. All can be improved to some extent. Some are certainly predisposed to throw harder than others. Mullins improved greatly, for instance. 

I agree it can be. There are cases on both sides for sure. Paul Skenes went from throwing 96 at Army to 100 at LSU. Grayson and DL Hall stayed about the same just more consistently throwing hard. Filling out to me is normally to be able to do max effort over a longer period and more consistently. I feel the same way about HR distance and exit velocity. People draft these kids and expect them to gain power. Bryce Harper was hitting the same 480 ft home runs as a 17 year old. Samuel Basallo is hitting 440 ft home runs as a 19 year old. He will get stronger but it will be to do it consistently.

[Jammer7]

27 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I agree it can be. There are cases on both sides for sure. Paul Skenes went from throwing 96 at Army to 100 at LSU. Grayson and DL Hall stayed about the same just more consistently throwing hard. Filling out to me is normally to be able to do max effort over a longer period and more consistently. I feel the same way about HR distance and exit velocity. People draft these kids and expect them to gain power. Bryce Harper was hitting the same 480 ft home runs as a 17 year old. Samuel Basallo is hitting 440 ft home runs as a 19 year old. He will get stronger but it will be to do it consistently.

I agree. It really is player specific. It really always has been, as there was always outliers. 

Traditional thinking was/is “they’ll grow into power.” Or “the power is the last thing to come around.” There is certainly still some truth in that. I think it is less so today due to the training available to young players today. The tech and coaching are leaps and bounds ahead of where they were just a decade ago.

Strength obtained over the years helps to keep them consistent and available. Nutrition, stretching and all of the other training factors are so much more advanced. Being in the youth baseball scene now for 18 years, several years at the highest levels, I have witnessed some crack pots and some amazing innovations in training.

To that point, my 14U LHP/OF team just bought Rapsodo. My little fella (5’-09” 13.3 year old) is still going through his throwing progressions and isn’t even throwing flat grounds yet, but he is excited to see what this data can show him. It’s a brave new world. The trick, as a dad only these days, is to protect that arm, train properly and be sure the rest period is non negotiable. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

With Holliday seemingly locked into 2B and not having the arm to play 3B, sure seems like Estrada’s defense is the deciding factor in whether he will ultimately be a trade chip or a part of future Orioles teams.

If Estrada could play 3B, he might be a nice fit as a bench infielder. If he can play a plus LF, he might hit enough to be a regular there. But if he’s really just a 2B and probably not providing enough combined offense/defense for LF, seems destined to eventually go the way of Connor Norby. 

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

To that point, my 14U LHP/OF team just bought Rapsodo. My little fella (5’-09” 13.3 year old) is still going through his throwing progressions and isn’t even throwing flat grounds yet, but he is excited to see what this data can show him. It’s a brave new world. The trick, as a dad only these days, is to protect that arm, train properly and be sure the rest period is non negotiable. 

Good luck! I have an 18 yo son who is a RH pitcher chasing the velocity dream. He's on his way to a post-graduate program in Florida instead of playing DIII in college. Great student but he wants to pitch in college and didn't get an offer to play from any of the schools he got into after high school. So he's taking a year to get stronger and improve his velocity. I guess we'll see how it goes. Wish us luck!

[Jammer7]

8 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Good luck! I have an 18 yo son who is a RH pitcher chasing the velocity dream. He's on his way to a post-graduate program in Florida instead of playing DIII in college. Great student but he wants to pitch in college and didn't get an offer to play from any of the schools he got into after high school. So he's taking a year to get stronger and improve his velocity. I guess we'll see how it goes. Wish us luck!

Awesome! The very best of luck! If you got a jersey, you still got a dream.

[Frobby]

Estrada isn’t lighting A+ on fire, but at 19, he’s not looking overmatched, either.  His line is .211/.318/.421 and he’s only struck out 7 times in 44 PA.   Nice to see him making steady progress.  

[sportsfan8703]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

Estrada isn’t lighting A+ on fire, but at 19, he’s not looking overmatched, either.  His line is .211/.318/.421 and he’s only struck out 7 times in 44 PA.   Nice to see him making steady progress.  

I’d say that classifies as holding his own. Heck, I’ve spent the season making excuses for EBJ and Josenberger in Aberdeen and when they were 19 they were Sophomores in college. 

[Frobby]

Estrada was pulled from the game today in the second inning after a ball was hit in his direction.  Anyone know what happened?

[Warehouse]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Estrada was pulled from the game today in the second inning after a ball was hit in his direction.  Anyone know what happened?