How much longer for Mullins

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I believe he’s under contract through 2025, so I’d say we will be seeing a good bit of him until next October.  

Contract or control?

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I believe he’s under contract through 2025, so I’d say we will be seeing a good bit of him until next October.  

Technically, 2024 with a club option.      If Mullins and Hays lose their jobs, they become possible non-tenders, and why even with very good players it isn't automatic that it is 6 years of club control for 2.5 months.

I still don't think Joey Ortiz or Jordan Westburg are locks to command Arb3 tenders when the time comes even if they earn All-Star berths....like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays have.

[DirtyBird]

10 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

this team doesnt have the luxury to keep better hitters on the bench...

Actually, it does

[emmett16]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Contract or control?

 

15 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Technically, 2024 with a club option.      If Mullins and Hays lose their jobs, they become possible non-tenders, and why even with very good players it isn't automatic that it is 6 years of club control for 2.5 months.

I still don't think Joey Ortiz or Jordan Westburg are locks to command Arb3 tenders when the time comes even if they earn All-Star berths....like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays have.

Correct, under control.  

Thanks for the clarification. I didn’t realize that was the situation.  
 

I’d be pretty surprised if he isn’t on the 26man next year.  

[interloper]

Look how quickly everyone stopped worrying about Austin Hays, or at least were able to forget about his struggles for a bit. 

And we don't think the same can't happen with Mullins, who is the far better player for his career? Come on. Stuff like this is so silly. 

Edited June 6 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Contract or control?

This is the type of post that on the FB page would get 40 replies.  

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

Look how quickly everyone stopped worrying about Austin Hays, or at least were able to forget about his struggles for a bit. 

And we don't think the same can't happen with Mullins, who is the far better player for his career? Come on. Stuff like this is so silly. 

I hope this indeed is the ballpark we're in, and Mullins can get back to playing like someone on track for something around the Brandon Nimmo-Bryan Reynolds contract.

Today he's also a ~29.7 year old CF whose Sprint Speed percentile has run 90's to 80's to 60's in recent years, and whose max EV is way down in 2024.    The perhaps better measure EV50 is holding up 2024 over 2023.

I still have Mullins in my Top 9 guys I hope make the strongest October everyday lineup, but it is getting shaky.

[DirtyBird]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

And we don't think the same can't happen with Mullins, who is the far better player for his career? 

I wouldn't say Mullins is "far better for his career". He has one outlier season and still has a lower career OPS than Hays.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I hope this indeed is the ballpark we're in, and Mullins can get back to playing like someone on track for something around the Brandon Nimmo-Bryan Reynolds contract.

Today he's also a ~29.7 year old CF whose Sprint Speed percentile has run 90's to 80's to 60's in recent years, and whose max EV is way down in 2024.    The perhaps better measure EV50 is holding up 2024 over 2023.

I still have Mullins in my Top 9 guys I hope make the strongest October everyday lineup, but it is getting shaky.

Not denying it's been an obviously poor and concerning year for him. I just think this team is going to need him (and Hays) before the book on 2024 is written. All he has to do is contribute positively. I can easily see him getting hot at the right time and acting as savior for a few series. In a playoff year, sometimes that's all you need from a guy. His end-of-year numbers will probably look ugly at this point, but he's more than capable of helping this team collect wins. 

He's already been relegated to the bench and I don't see any need to further relegate him to AAA. Right now he's like the Urias of the OF and that's fine. If he gets hot, he'll play more and we'll benefit. 

[LGOrioles]

22 minutes ago, interloper said:

Look how quickly everyone stopped worrying about Austin Hays, or at least were able to forget about his struggles for a bit. 

And we don't think the same can't happen with Mullins, who is the far better player for his career? Come on. Stuff like this is so silly. 

Mullins easily could turn it around and he did look good at the plate last night. But Hays has comfortably been the better hitter since the beginning of 2022 (107 wRC+ to 97 for Mullins). Mullins defense and speed have also been steadily declining in that time frame (although still above average).

I think what is really worrisome for Mullins is that he vastly over performed his expected stats the last 2 years and now that he’s not, this is what it looks like. His xwOBA was in the 18th percentile in 2022, 11th percentile last year, and is in the 1st percentile this year. It’s very possible that he was pretty lucky in 2022 and 2023 to finish with the batting lines he had and that this is closer to who he actually is.

[LGOrioles]

Another ding against Mullins is that if you trust Cowser in CF, then he isn’t in the best OF formation against RHP’s and he can’t hit LHP’s either. Hays at least can be penciled in every game against LHP’s and has the advantage of being the only RHH OF.

So in that case how useful is Mullins really? Is he even a defensive replacement? Cowser has a higher UZR in CF than Mullins, they’re both at 1 OAA, and Cowser has a higher success rate added according to Statcast. It’s a SSS for Cowser, but there’s an argument to be made that Mullins isn’t the best defensive CF’er on the roster so then… what value is he adding? He’s a good baserunner but other than that, he’s not really warranting a  roster spot. 

[Aristotelian]

42 minutes ago, interloper said:

Look how quickly everyone stopped worrying about Austin Hays, or at least were able to forget about his struggles for a bit. 

And we don't think the same can't happen with Mullins, who is the far better player for his career? Come on. Stuff like this is so silly. 

Hays is coming off an All Star season and exceeded his career averages last year. Mullins has been in a more steady decline and has a longer period of suckitude going back to last year. I'm not writing Mullins off yet but the length of his leash is a fair question.

[Spy Fox]

Today's lineup drop makes it just 1/4 games started in Toronto for Ced. 

The TB series will be enough data to say if that's just a mental reset moment, or an adjusted role for the time being. I'm guessing it's the latter actually. 

[Just Regular]

It will be a joy if Mullins/Hays can land on their feet and reasonably emulate Lowenstein/Roenicke for awhile with an assist from Cowser LF-CF flex.

I hope in late 2025 I get to see Mullins still playing CF well enough to have an Adam Jones baton moment with the next guy.

I think as probably as The Ryans are being weighed and measured against each other for next year for a single roster spot, some of the same may be happening with Mullins and Hays.

 

[interloper]

40 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Hays is coming off an All Star season and exceeded his career averages last year. Mullins has been in a more steady decline and has a longer period of suckitude going back to last year. I'm not writing Mullins off yet but the length of his leash is a fair question.

I just don't think there's any real leash because he's a bench player now unless he gets hot, and that's fine. I think he will be productive in this lesser role. He's barely started recently which makes this thread all the more puzzling.