Hmm… so about that qualifying offer to Santander?

[OnlyOneOriole]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You weren’t a member 2 years ago but you were a member 10 years ago?

Good chance Nelson Cruz was on the special sauce. 

As I said, Pepperidge Farms remembers....

Make of that as you will. 

[Say O!]

QO offers Elias best optionality and ROI.  There is nothing precluding Os from trading Tony Taters after he accepts QO. There are no bad one year contracts. 

[Malike]

He's definitely getting a QO. He's likely getting a multi-year contract more than the O's are willing to pay. 

Edited June 22 by Malike

[DrinkinWithFermi]

14 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

I would QO Santander, 100% exercise Ohearns option, and keep Mounty. Tney are pros, can hit, and won’t break the bank.
 

Hays and Mullins are likely done. There’s room to keep the first three while we figure out who else can play and likely trade another prospect.

Completely agree, at least right now.

Obviously the calculus may change over the next few months though.

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

Why? O'Hearn is a strict platoon bat that should rarely play against LHP or in the OF. These two players are not remotely similar.

I was responding directly to the other poster's suggestion of declining O'Hearn's option in order to keep a spot open on the 2025 roster to retain Santander.

The differences in their games aren't really that relevant here, IMO.

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, Say O! said:

QO offers Elias best optionality and ROI.  There is nothing precluding Os from trading Tony Taters after he accepts QO. There are no bad one year contracts. 

I think he knows this is his one shot at a multi-year deal, making a QO accept unlikely if he finishes the year well.

[OnlyOneOriole]

3 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Based on the development in the O's system, I think best case scenario is that Santander accepts a QO. If he declines, the draft pick is nice. I don't think he's a guy we sign to an extension now should we. I don't see him aging well, he will be a DH within 2 seasons

He really isn't that old though.  I mean he is still 29 right?   That is prime.  What is 3 more years for a known solid entity?   Again, he isn't going to be that expensive and it isn't our money.   The new owner is a billionaire.   He can afford another $5 M a year compared to what AS makes now.    Plus outfielders age differently than infielders and catchers imo.  It is a much less taxing position to play physically and mentally.   Look at Kenny Singleton for example. 

I think he is perfectly fine the next 3 or 4 years. 

[Allan Bryant]

14 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

IMO AS has shown enough over the years to give me confidence he can hit for at least the next 3 years minimum.  He is a known quantity.  And he isn't going to be THAT expensive.  Not in the grand scheme of things.

Again, if the O's hadn't had all of these pitching injuries that will follow into next year?  I would be more apt to just QO Anthony and keep Heston.  But things have changed....radically imo, with the elbow's all going haywire.   

Heston more than likely is going to have to be part of a trade package.  Which makes signing AS more crucial. 

But we shall see.  That is why Elias gets paid the big bucks.

I know AS can definitely hit for one year, the second and third years most likely but odds increase.  And yes , Orioles’s pitching injuries having an impact for next month trade deadline & coming offseason.  We don’t know if Heston , Mayo , Norby or even Basallo will be traded for much needed pitching reinforcements . 
The one positive thing about AS is they don’t have to make a decision on him until WS is done 

[OnlyOneOriole]

Just now, jabba72 said:

I think he knows this is his one shot at a multi-year deal, making a QO accept unlikely if he finishes the year well.

That too.   Good point.  He is lined up for a nice, set for life contract.  He is going to sign for multi years somewhere.  No reason to take a one year deal. 

[Malike]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Completely agree, at least right now.

Obviously the calculus may change over the next few months though.

I was responding directly to the other poster's suggestion of declining O'Hearn's option in order to keep a spot open on the 2025 roster to retain Santander.

The differences in their games aren't really that relevant here, IMO.

I think 650 ABs of a 122 OPS+ vs 360 ABs of 123 OPS+ is a relevant difference when you are deciding which one to pay.

[DirtyBird]

10 minutes ago, Malike said:

Because he doesn't hit them. I'm not saying pull him out of the game for a LH pen guy in the 5th, but he isn't starting games against any good LHP.

He had a .789 OPS w/ a 28% K rate vs LHP in 2023 (.802 OPS, 22% K rate vs RHP)

This season, he has 0 K's in 13 PA's vs LHP and his overall K rate has dropped to 10%. 

He has clearly become a better overall hitter, with an excellent feel for the strike zone. Say he is given more opportunities vs LHP and his K rate is 50% higher than it is vs RHP, making it 15% - he could still be an effective hitter.

It doesn't make sense to make the decision that he is strictly a platoon guy based on 200 plate appearances, most of which from over two years ago when he wasn't a very good hitter in general.

[OnlyOneOriole]

7 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

He had a .789 OPS w/ a 28% K rate vs LHP in 2023 (.802 OPS, 22% K rate vs RHP)

This season, he has 0 K's in 13 PA's vs LHP and his overall K rate has dropped to 10%. 

He has clearly become a better overall hitter, with an excellent feel for the strike zone. Say he is given more opportunities vs LHP and his K rate is 50% higher than it is vs RHP, making it 15% - he could still be an effective hitter.

It doesn't make sense to make the decision that he is strictly a platoon guy based on 200 plate appearances, most of which from over two years ago when he wasn't a very good hitter in general.

I like O'Hearn and want him on the team as long as possible.   Solid solid player and teammate.  Maybe a little underrated imo.

Reminds me of McLouth in that sense. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

He really isn't that old though.  I mean he is still 29 right?   That is prime.  What is 3 more years for a known solid entity?   Again, he isn't going to be that expensive and it isn't our money.   The new owner is a billionaire.   He can afford another $5 M a year compared to what AS makes now.    Plus outfielders age differently than infielders and catchers imo.  It is a much less taxing position to play physically and mentally.   Look at Kenny Singleton for example. 

I think he is perfectly fine the next 3 or 4 years. 

Santander will be 30 when he signs his next contract, which is actually "old" for guys with his skillset (see Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini).

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think 650 ABs of a 122 OPS+ vs 360 ABs of 123 OPS+ is a relevant difference when you are deciding which one to pay.

O'Hearn would need a platoon partner, sure, but a short side platoon partner isn't terribly hard to find. Norby, Mateo, and Hays are already on-hand and one of them would likely handle the gig just fine without requiring a risky multiyear extension at $15 million a year.

[OnlyOneOriole]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Santander will be 30 when he signs his next contract, which is actually "old" for guys with his skillset (see Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini).

 

For every Trumbo and Mancini I can show you a Cruz and a Singleton.     I never did like Trumbo.  Mancini was good but obviously his cancer and all that went with it probably took some years off of him playing wise. 

[Malike]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Santander will be 30 when he signs his next contract, which is actually "old" for guys with his skillset (see Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini).

O'Hearn would need a platoon partner, sure, but a short side platoon partner isn't terribly hard to find. Norby, Mateo, and Hays are already on-hand and one of them would likely handle the gig just fine without requiring a risky multiyear extension at $15 million a year.

I'm not saying Santander should get a multi-year deal, but they should offer a QO and if he takes it, why burn two roster spots on 2 platoon players when you have 1 guy who can hit from both sides.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

For every Trumbo and Mancini I can show you a Cruz and a Singleton.     I never did like Trumbo.  Mancini was good but obviously his cancer and all that went with it probably took some years off of him playing wise. 

Nelson Cruz is not actually a good comp for Santander. 

Mark Trumbo, however, is actually a good comp for Santander.