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Bases loaded struggles on offense

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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45 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

it tracks with their near the bottom OBP

What color is the sky in your universe?

Because in this one, where the sky is blue, the Orioles are 6th in obp.

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Ceciltrav AA

Ceciltrav

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I'd love to know how many times there has been a runner on third and less than two outs and the run hasn't come in?  That has to be high as well?

Yesterday, bases loaded in the third and Santander was up and swung at two pitches out of the zone right away.  I feel this club isn't patient enough at times.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Bad fact, small sample.  The team has an above average OPS with RISP, with RISP and two outs, in high leverage situations, with runners on 3B and less than two out, and with the bases loaded (forget the two-out part).   So, I just see this as a small sample size anomaly, albeit an unpleasant one.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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36 minutes ago, Ceciltrav said:

I'd love to know how many times there has been a runner on third and less than two outs and the run hasn't come in?  That has to be high as well?

 

The team is hitting .313/.352/.519 with a runner on 3B and less than two out, which is above average.  However, when they don’t get hits, they’ve been a bit below average in getting runner in by other means.  They get the runner home 46.7% of the time; average this year is 51.5%.  

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Morgan423 Hangout Grand Counsel

Morgan423

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I mean, you can't say it isn't ugly-looking.  This doesn't break down how many of these situations were one out when the bases got loaded and how many were zero outs, but historically after the dead ball era:

Bases loaded, no outs: scores at least one run ~86.5% of the time.
Bases loaded, one out: scores at least one run ~67% of the time.

To Frobby's point, however, what does this really mean when you're talking about 27 total occurrences?  It's such a small sample size that being on the negative end of it can just be viewed as statistical noise (the same could be said for positive-ended outliers like the Tigers there). 

We get luckier in these situations in the next couple of months worth of games (or other teams do the opposite) and this list could look radically different in September. 

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Moshagge3 Hangout Grand Counsel

Moshagge3

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Does this count only the results of the next AB? For instance, if it's bases loaded none out, then the next three batters go strikeout, strikeout, grand slam, does that count as scoring for the purposes this graphic, or is it actually two fails to score because the hitters with none out and one out didn't score any runners?

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Morgan423 Hangout Grand Counsel

Morgan423

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1 hour ago, Moshagge3 said:

Does this count only the results of the next AB? For instance, if it's bases loaded none out, then the next three batters go strikeout, strikeout, grand slam, does that count as scoring for the purposes this graphic, or is it actually two fails to score because the hitters with none out and one out didn't score any runners?

This is looking in terms of innings with the scenario per team, not at bats.

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