2024 4th Round Pick (#127): Chase Allsup - RHP - (Jr) Auburn (AL)

[WI O’s Fan]

Seems like a Trace Bright clone.

[OsFanInOhio]

7 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Trace Bright at Auburn - 140 IP of 6.00 ERA and 149/63 K/BB

Chase Allsup at Auburn - 140 IP of 5.10 ERA and 159/66 K/BB

This is an interesting comparison to see given the hype bright has seen as a potential breakout going into this year as a starter. 

[jabba72]

His 2.3 BB9 in his last season to me is pretty impressive, even if it came with a 1.9 HR9.

[Sports Guy]

 

Edited July 15 by Sports Guy

[O-The-Memories]

Well.....they did finally draft a pitcher. This is the same sort of analysis, just in reverse. Tools as a pitcher without the results that you would like to see. If guys at the lower levels are hitting the ball hard, then it's usually not going to translate to the majors. Worth a risk though, and my favorite pick so far. There are times where small adjustments work really well for guys with good "stuff". 

[Tony-OH]

Well, again, what we know is Elias is not going to change his system for drafting. He drafts college bats, outfielders preferably, and when he goes pitching, it's to college arms with good stuff, but inconsistent command and stats that show why they're available in the mid rounds. 

Maybe Allsup will be the first one they actually can develop into a major league pitcher.

[Frobby]

On 7/16/2024 at 4:41 PM, Tony-OH said:

Well, again, what we know is Elias is not going to change his system for drafting. He drafts college bats, outfielders preferably, and when he goes pitching, it's to college arms with good stuff, but inconsistent command and stats that show why they're available in the mid rounds. 

Maybe Allsup will be the first one they actually can develop into a major league pitcher.

Have you given up on all the pitchers drafted in 2019-23?  From last year’s top 30, that includes guys like Baumeister, Bright, Baumler, Lord and Young (who technically wasn’t drafted, but signed as a UDFA in a year when the draft was only 5 rounds).  From this year’s power rankings it also includes Forret and Weston, and 2023 UDFA German and Gibson.  

I certainly don’t know who of that group will make the majors, or what level of success they’ll have.  But I’m still hopeful that a few guys will emerge from that group and have some level of success.  
 

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Have you given up on all the pitchers drafted in 2019-23?  

Obviously this answer is no. The problem is that zero have contributed in the majors.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Have you given up on all the pitchers drafted in 2019-23?  From last year’s top 30, that includes guys like Baumeister, Bright, Baumler, Lord and Young (who technically wasn’t drafted, but signed as a UDFA in a year when the draft was only 5 rounds).  From this year’s power rankings it also includes Forret and Weston, and 2023 UDFA German and Gibson.  

I certainly don’t know who of that group will make the majors, or what level of success they’ll have.  But I’m still hopeful that a few guys will emerge from that group and have some level of success.  
 

I have not given up on any of those guys and even in Forret I see some genuine tools that suggest he could very well end up the best guy they've drafted. I was just saying maybe he'll be a guy that they make some adjustments and he becomes the guy. It was more of an offhand comment then suggesting none of the guys in the system are any good. 

Now outside of Forret, do any of those other guys you mention wow me? Not really. I still have not seen any reason to give the Orioles the benefit of the doubt that they know how to scout, draft, and develop amateur pitching because they haven't done so yet. 

Elias and his crew keep going after he same kinds of college arms, using the same kind of draft capita to go after them.

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I still have not seen any reason to give the Orioles the benefit of the doubt that they know how to scout, draft, and develop amateur pitching because they haven't done so yet. 

I can’t argue with this.  Hopefully we’ll have a different view in a year or so as some of the guys I mentioned percolate up.  

To get some perspective on this, I looked at how many drafted pitchers have made it to the majors since 2019:

2019: 80

2020: 28

2021: 28

2022:  7

2023: 3

So, the average team has drafted about 5 pitchers since 2019 who have made it to the majors.  Not a ton have had major impact yet, but several have.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I can’t argue with this.  Hopefully we’ll have a different view in a year or so as some of the guys I mentioned percolate up.  

To get some perspective on this, I looked at how many drafted pitchers have made it to the majors since 2019:

2019: 80

2020: 28

2021: 28

2022:  7

2023: 3

So, the average team has drafted about 5 pitchers since 2019 who have made it to the majors.  Not a ton have had major impact yet, but several have.

 

 

Good information @Frobby. I do want to clarify that I don't necessarily think the Orioles do not know how to scout, draft, and develop pitchers, just that I'm not going to think they have some special way to do so because the results are just not there.

You can look at the power rankings and see that I like several pitchers enough to put them in the top 40, but I just wish I'd have a guy to get excited about. 

Maybe that will be Forret? Maybe it will be somebody else. I'd just like to see the pitching version of a Mayo which would require them to go after more upside high school arms, something they've been very reluctant to do.

Either way, Allsup certainly fits there mold of a guy with good stuff, but inconsistent stuff that they hope they can unlock more consistency with. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch next year.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Either way, Allsup certainly fits there mold of a guy with good stuff, but inconsistent stuff that they hope they can unlock more consistency with. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch next year.

I wonder if he’ll get a few innings in at Delmarva.   Bright made a few appearances there in his draft year.  

[RZNJ]

Although it’s a frustratingly slow process to this point, I think they’re hoping to produce the arms through Latin America.  We know pitchers can move fast once they get it.  It’s just a matter of IF they ever get it.  Fangraphs mentioned 80 arms in our system that touch 95, which isn’t that big of a deal anymore.  It’s a bigger deal when it’s some projectable 17-20 yo skinny Latin kid with very little experience.

This is probably built more on hope than anything else but I think Portes, Chace, and DeLeon are the tip of the iceberg.   I’m hoping/believing that there’s a lot more on the way but there is definitely a gap in our system right now.

Can we get anything out of Povich, McDermott, and Seth Johnson as rotation pieces?  Can a Brandon Young surprise?    Things look a little scary over the next two years when it comes to starting pitching.

[Jim'sKid26]

The O's have traded for several starters who have blossomed under their control. I will name Bradish and Kremer as examples. As I recall we were all a little underwhelmed with their inclusion in the trades that brought them to the organization but they have turned into impact starters. I think the O's should get some credit for their acquisition and development.

Also, Grayson Rodriguez, though acquired by the previous leadership group, was developed in this system and has done well. There are certainly many others who have not, but that is true for many of the organizations around baseball.

@Tony-OH I'm not disagreeing with you. I think you know I follow your talent assessments avidly. I just think there have been a few success stories over the past 5 years. I am also a big Forret fan. I think he's going to be very good.

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The O's have traded for several starters who have blossomed under their control. I will name Bradish and Kremer as examples. As I recall we were all a little underwhelmed with their inclusion in the trades that brought them to the organization but they have turned into impact starters. I think the O's should get some credit for their acquisition and development.

Also, Grayson Rodriguez, though acquired by the previous leadership group, was developed in this system and has done well. There are certainly many others who have not, but that is true for many of the organizations around baseball.

@Tony-OH I'm not disagreeing with you. I think you know I follow your talent assessments avidly. I just think there have been a few success stories over the past 5 years. I am also a big Forret fan. I think he's going to be very good.

I know you are not trying to say anything wrong, but I clearly stated evaluated, DRAFTED, and developed. I've given the organization credit for acquiring and in some cases, especially Bradish, developing talent acquired in trade, but this is about the amateur drafting and development. 

I really still don't know if it's the evaluating/scouting process that has struggled, the fact that they rarely spend high draft picks on pitchers, or their development despite the technology is not great. 

Either way, until guys start to show up at the major league level and have an impact from this process, I'll have my concerns. Elias just completed his 6th draft. At some point they need to find some impact pitching because besides the one year of Burnes, they have not been able to trade for pitching, particular young, controllable impact pitching with their offensive prospects.