Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Bemorewins]

40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

In other words, you'd rather have a better chance of being good over the next 5 years vs great over the next 3 years.

Skubel makes the team better this year and the next 2 at the very least. Without Skubel and assuming someone outbids the Orioles for Burnes, the Orioles rotation next year is what, Grayson Rodriguez, Kremer and who??? 

Skubel is the kind if guy that the Orioles should be targeting. It's going to hurt to trade for him, but I'd rather move Holliday and say Norby or Stowers for Skubel than have to move Kjerstad or Cowser with Mayo or Basallo.

Does it have to be Holliday? In your opinion, is there any way you think we could headline a Skubal trade by giving up Basallo instead?

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but good chance it’s one of the big 3 and one of Kjerstad or Cowser, for the Tigers to make the trade.

Maybe for Mayo or Basallo, but I think Holliday gets him straight up. I would not trade Kjerstad or Cowser along with one of the big three. Each of the Big-3 should be able to headline a deal for Skubel. I do think they will want some quantity, but it will probably more of a Norby/Stowers type along with a Beavers/Fabian type and/or maybe a Povich/McDermott type. 

If they want Mayo/Basallo along with Cowser/Kjerstad that would have to be hard no for me. 

 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Does it have to be Holliday? In your opinion, is there any way you think we could headline a Skubal trade by giving up Basallo instead?

Basallo, Norby/Stowers, and Povich/Baumeister should be the most the Orioles should give up. And yes, it's going to be painful to watch Basallo become an impact major league hitter for years after Skubel is gone, but if the Orioles win a World Series, who cares?

[Sports Guy]

Keith Law still has Holliday #1 and has this to say:

Since Holliday’s return to Triple A, he’s hit .270/.440/.480 (through Sunday’s games) with as many walks as strikeouts, playing more second base than shortstop. I’m sure someone out there is trying to sell the idea that Holliday isn’t the prospect everyone said he’d be coming into the year, but don’t buy it. My guess is we don’t see him in the majors again until the Orioles are comfortable bringing him up to stay, even if he struggles.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Keith Law still has Holliday #1 and has this to say:

Since Holliday’s return to Triple A, he’s hit .270/.440/.480 (through Sunday’s games) with as many walks as strikeouts, playing more second base than shortstop. I’m sure someone out there is trying to sell the idea that Holliday isn’t the prospect everyone said he’d be coming into the year, but don’t buy it. My guess is we don’t see him in the majors again until the Orioles are comfortable bringing him up to stay, even if he struggles.

BTW, he has Basallo 11th and Mayo 18th.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Maybe for Mayo or Basallo, but I think Holliday gets him straight up. I would not trade Kjerstad or Cowser along with one of the big three. Each of the Big-3 should be able to headline a deal for Skubel. I do think they will want some quantity, but it will probably more of a Norby/Stowers type along with a Beavers/Fabian type and/or maybe a Povich/McDermott type. 

If they want Mayo/Basallo along with Cowser/Kjerstad that would have to be hard no for me. 

 

The Tigers can’t risk getting just one great prospect.   That’s why you see “they would need to be blown away” to trade Skubal.   No way Holliday gets Skubal straight up.  You might not have to include Basallo or Mayo but I’d expect 2 or 3 other really good prospects and even 1-2 lotto tickets.

[Sports Guy]

Britt wrote an article for The Athletic about Holliday.  Some highlights:

 

It is almost impossible, however, to see a scenario where that includes Jackson Holliday.

Holliday isn’t just the Orioles’ No. 1 prospect. He’s the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. In an era where teams are increasingly hesitant to part with top young talent, the consensus top MLB prospect has been traded just once in the last 30 years.

That deal took place before the 2017 season, when the White Sox traded pitcher Chris Saleto the Red Sox in exchange for Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz; at the time, Moncada was ranked as baseball’s top prospect by MLB.com and Baseball America. Then-Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger to give Boston the front-line starter it needed for the foreseeable future. (At the time of the deal, Sale would be under team control at $38 million over the next three years if two options were exercised.)
 

Top prospects will be moved in the next week, and it’s possible — particularly if the Tigers agree to deal Skubal — that a team’s No. 1 prospect will be included in the deal. In 2022, the Padres traded their No. 1 prospect both before the season, in C.J. Abrams, and midseason, when they moved Robert Hassel III to land Juan Soto. (At the time, neither player was viewed as one of baseball’s top five prospects.) Sometimes teams feel like they have to use their best chips.

The Orioles, however, shouldn’t have to. Both Basallo and Mayo are ranked among baseball’s top 15 and, with all due respect to Skubal and Crochet and whoever else may be available, there’s no player close to Soto’s value available at this year’s deadline.

This should be a big trade deadline for Baltimore. There should be no way it includes Holliday.

 

[jabba72]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Tigers can’t risk getting just one great prospect.   That’s why you see “they would need to be blown away” to trade Skubal.   No way Holliday gets Skubal straight up.  You might not have to include Basallo or Mayo but I’d expect 2 or 3 other really prospects and even 1-2 lotto tickets.

6 Years of Holliday should be easily worth 2.3 years of Skubal. If I'm Elias I wouldn't make that offer, because thats alot of value. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, jabba72 said:

6 Years of Holliday should be easily worth 2.3 years of Skubal. If I'm Elias I wouldn't make that offer, because thats alot of value. 

That’s fine.  Doesn’t change my point.  No way the Tigers trade Skubal for one prospect even if his name is Jackson Holliday.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

6 Years of Holliday should be easily worth 2.3 years of Skubal. If I'm Elias I wouldn't make that offer, because thats alot of value. 

It may be enough…in fact, it may be too much but it puts all their eggs in one basket and that’s the issue.

It’s why a Skubal trade isn’t happening. They just will want way too much to justify the risk of losing him…even though I would argue that keeping him as en even bigger risk.

[Just Regular]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That deal took place before the 2017 season, when the White Sox traded pitcher Chris Saleto the Red Sox in exchange for Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz; at the time, Moncada was ranked as baseball’s top prospect by MLB.com and Baseball America. Then-Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger to give Boston the front-line starter it needed for the foreseeable future. (At the time of the deal, Sale would be under team control at $38 million over the next three years if two options were exercised.)

It is almost like Dave Dombrowski has good taste assessing who is or is not a championship level player (Bryce Harper hopes..)

Is Mike Elias a good judge?   Is he conservative, maybe with a skew (Rio Ruiz) for handpicked assets?     Did he shed DL Hall, not his handpicked guy, in his biggest transaction to date?

MLB always marketing the game wants the Trade Deadline to be a media event, and the Jackson Holliday name recognition factor helps them shine the product.    Their own prospect guys don't even know who Michael Forret is, though he could be a real piece in a package deal.

I think by this time next year, Holliday, Mayo and Basallo could be taking one third of the team's PA, as would be the case through 2030.     There's a small chance Skubal is Jacob deGrom.     I don't think if moved he will return more than Kjerstad, EBJ, Povich and McDermott, or Kjerstad, EBJ, Forret and De Leon if the seller prefers the younger pitchers timeline.

[Keygans]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It may be enough…in fact, it may be too much but it puts all their eggs in one basket and that’s the issue.

It’s why a Skubal trade isn’t happening. They just will want way too much to justify the risk of losing him…even though I would argue that keeping him as en even bigger risk.

I still think that Basillo +2 in our top 10 not named Kjerdtad or Cowser gets the job done IF we want to make that deal. No other team can beat that if they want more than that we move on.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Keygans said:

I still think that Basillo +2 in our top 10 not named Kjerdtad or Cowser gets the job done IF we want to make that deal. No other team can beat that if they want more than that we move on.

Other teams can certainly beat that. Our top 10 prospects once you get past the top 4 aren’t mind blowing.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Keygans said:

I still think that Basillo +2 in our top 10 not named Kjerdtad or Cowser gets the job done IF we want to make that deal. No other team can beat that if they want more than that we move on.

I think you’re close but I don’t think the Tigers do it without a better #2 piece.  I don’t think a Basallo package with the #2 piece being Norby, Bradfield, or whoever gets it done.  
 

I do think the Red Sox could make a run with Mayer, Anthony, and Teel but I don’t think they will.   
 

 

[Keygans]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Other teams can certainly beat that. Our top 10 prospects once you get past the top 4 aren’t mind blowing.

I guess I disagree, more so on another team not being willing to top that value wise, but who really knows the real ask from Detroit.   Point I guess I was making is,  of the 3. Basillo is the one I’d move for Skubal.