Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Safelykept]

27 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I hope to the baseball God that we DON't trade Kjerstad or Mayo, Basalo would be my third untouchable. But its sure not up to me.

I'm with you Roy, But I,m not trading any of the top 4, Keep folding them into the line up, could be a top two or three lineup for years to come. I,m with SG on this target the pen If you are going to target a Starter some body like Luzardo, that you can get at a discount, even Cabrera whats happened to him? Can he be turned around?

[EddeeEddee]

2 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

I'm with you Roy, But I,m not trading any of the top 4, Keep folding them into the line up, could be a top two or three lineup for years to come. I,m with SG on this target the pen If you are going to target a Starter some body like Luzardo, that you can get at a discount, even Cabrera whats happened to him? Can he be turned around?

Luzardo is on the 60 Day IL with an ERA over 5 and Cabrera has an ERA over 7.  

We do not have to go get Skubal for, say, Mayo and Basallo, but we're not going to get anywhere with arms worse than Kris Benson or Bud Norris.  The time to make a move is now.  

[Tryptamine]

I said this last trade deadline in here and I'll say it this one too. Until your owner shows that they're willing to start handing out 9 figure contracts and maintaining a significantly higher payroll, you cannot keep taking cheap years of production from guys like Rutschman and Gunnar for granted. You need to be aggressive now before arbitration starts rapidly raising payroll. Windows close far faster than you think.

[EddeeEddee]

25 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think Povich is appealing to Detroit because they aren’t rebuilding.  They could be good next year.  Povich could help to fill the void of Skubal.  

Both Detroit and Seattle need offense bad enough and are pitching rich enough that, considering the strength of the O's system, they may be only focusing on bats.  Or at least that's my take based on what I'm reading.

[e16bball]

There’s a lot of interesting hypothetical/philosophical debate here, but realistically, this just is not going to happen. 

The Tigers are in a position where they don’t have to trade Skubal unless someone bowls them over with an offer that substantially overbears their desire to keep him. And regardless of whether it’s wise or not, they’re just not going to get such an offer from Mike Elias. 

Mike and Sig have been working together for 17+ seasons now, across three separate organizations. In all those years, the best prospect their organization(s) have ever traded is either Franklin Perez (for Justin Verlander) or Brett Wallace (ironically enough, for Matt Holliday). Both of those guys came in around #40 in the prospect rankings the year they were dealt. They’ve never come close to dealing any young player with the sort of prestige that is attached to all three of these guys we’re discussing — let alone multiple such guys in one deal.

And it’s probably worth noting that the two guys they did actually ship off top 50 prospects for (Verlander and Holliday) were both very established veteran players with lengthy track records of success and extreme durability. We could argue about whether Skubal has established himself from a production standpoint, but no one outside of Detroit talk radio could possibly argue that he’s demonstrated any sort of durability.

I find it impossible to believe that Elias is going to trade multiple top 20 (or top 50, if Kjerstad is the second piece) prospects for a guy with Skubal’s limited background. It just isn’t a match, unless DET’s actual asking price is much less than folks are projecting. And I don’t think it will be.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

There’s a lot of interesting hypothetical/philosophical debate here, but realistically, this just is not going to happen. 

The Tigers are in a position where they don’t have to trade Skubal unless someone bowls them over with an offer that substantially overbears their desire to keep him. And regardless of whether it’s wise or not, they’re just not going to get such an offer from Mike Elias. 

Mike and Sig have been working together for 17+ seasons now, across three separate organizations. In all those years, the best prospect their organization(s) have ever traded is either Franklin Perez (for Justin Verlander) or Brett Wallace (ironically enough, for Matt Holliday). Both of those guys came in around #40 in the prospect rankings the year they were dealt. They’ve never come close to dealing any young player with the sort of prestige that is attached to all three of these guys we’re discussing — let alone multiple such guys in one deal.

And it’s probably worth noting that the two guys they did actually ship off top 50 prospects for (Verlander and Holliday) were both very established veteran players with lengthy track records of success and extreme durability. We could argue about whether Skubal has established himself from a production standpoint, but no one outside of Detroit talk radio could possibly argue that he’s demonstrated any sort of durability.

I find it impossible to believe that Elias is going to trade multiple top 20 (or top 50, if Kjerstad is the second piece) prospects for a guy with Skubal’s limited background. It just isn’t a match, unless DET’s actual asking price is much less than folks are projecting. And I don’t think it will be.

Let's be clear here, until they came to Baltimore, they didn't ship off or trade anyone. They were not in anything other than advisory positions to the GM who made the trades in the other organizations. Saying that, I do think Sig is on record as saying he's a hoarder of minor league talent.

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, e16bball said:

There’s a lot of interesting hypothetical/philosophical debate here, but realistically, this just is not going to happen. 

The Tigers are in a position where they don’t have to trade Skubal unless someone bowls them over with an offer that substantially overbears their desire to keep him. And regardless of whether it’s wise or not, they’re just not going to get such an offer from Mike Elias. 

Mike and Sig have been working together for 17+ seasons now, across three separate organizations. In all those years, the best prospect their organization(s) have ever traded is either Franklin Perez (for Justin Verlander) or Brett Wallace (ironically enough, for Matt Holliday). Both of those guys came in around #40 in the prospect rankings the year they were dealt. They’ve never come close to dealing any young player with the sort of prestige that is attached to all three of these guys we’re discussing — let alone multiple such guys in one deal.

And it’s probably worth noting that the two guys they did actually ship off top 50 prospects for (Verlander and Holliday) were both very established veteran players with lengthy track records of success and extreme durability. We could argue about whether Skubal has established himself from a production standpoint, but no one outside of Detroit talk radio could possibly argue that he’s demonstrated any sort of durability.

I find it impossible to believe that Elias is going to trade multiple top 20 (or top 50, if Kjerstad is the second piece) prospects for a guy with Skubal’s limited background. It just isn’t a match, unless DET’s actual asking price is much less than folks are projecting. And I don’t think it will be.

Take this one step further.

What was the last trade that involved the #1(or #2 depending on who you read) prospect?  

And when was the last trade where multiple top 20 guys went in the trade?

Is the Sale trade the answer for both?

[GoldGlove21]

12 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I said this last trade deadline in here and I'll say it this one too. Until your owner shows that they're willing to start handing out 9 figure contracts and maintaining a significantly higher payroll, you cannot keep taking cheap years of production from guys like Rutschman and Gunnar for granted. You need to be aggressive now before arbitration starts rapidly raising payroll. Windows close far faster than you think.

With that argument, you are going to have holes to fill when Adley and Gunnar depart. Do you want to tear down 10 years of quality baseball for a single 2 year run? I say 2-years, but losing Burnes and getting Skubal is a trade off. At this point I think we better our team by 10% by viable, but unspectacular additions. A team like the Dodgers or Yankees has the luxury to buy the players needed to compete. They then fill a hole or two with prospects. They can also extend their stars. The Orioles have not show the willingness to do either thus far. If they do get the guys we want on the field many on this board are going to be unhappy.

2B: Holliday

DH/1B/3B/RF: Mayo

1B/C2: Basallo

Santander replacement: Kjerstad

For me, this is tough because I would feel better about dealing Basallo if Adley was locked up to a longer-term deal. I think the Stowers, Norby's, and Fabians of our system can get us upgrades without destroying our ability to fill holes in our lineup moving forward at a fraction of the cost of free-agent replacements.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Take this one step further.

What was the last trade that involved the #1(or #2 depending on who you read) prospect?  

And when was the last trade where multiple top 20 guys went in the trade?

Is the Sale trade the answer for both?

I guess the Soto trade is the most recent example. I don’t think there was one between this and Sale.

Castillo fetched a top 15 guy but the second player wasn’t top 100 for what I can find.

[RZNJ]

Option A -

  Trade 1 or 2 of the top 4 prospects for a guy who gives up 2.34 runs per game with 2+ years of service time.

 

Option B -

 Trade none of the top 4 for a guy who gives up 2.98 runs per game with 1+ years of service time.

 

[GoldGlove21]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Take this one step further.

What was the last trade that involved the #1(or #2 depending on who you read) prospect?  

And when was the last trade where multiple top 20 guys went in the trade?

Is the Sale trade the answer for both?

People who are offering up trades like Mayo/Holliday and Basallo are just silly. A pitcher is currently the odds of favor to win a CY Young this late in the season has never been traded as far as I know. That trade would suck because we are paying more for what he has done before potentially joining our team. We are ignoring the risk that comes with him and that, like Burnes, he will probably be too expensive for us to extend in 2.5 years. And the price for that is more in prospect capital than any other team has ever paid for a starting pitcher. People just do not understand that the Yankees Spencer Jones (haven't seen any trade proposals that include Dominguez and Jones) is not anywhere near the prospect that Holliday, Mayo, or Basallo is at this point. Basically Spencer Jones is Joey Ortiz as far as rankings were concerned. If the trade packages were Dominguez/Jones vs. Mayo/Basallo for example, our package would trump theirs. But it is breaking news that the Yankees would consider moving Jones for Skubal, lol.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

With that argument, you are going to have holes to fill when Adley and Gunnar depart. Do you want to tear down 10 years of quality baseball for a single 2 year run? I say 2-years, but losing Burnes and getting Skubal is a trade off. At this point I think we better our team by 10% by viable, but unspectacular additions. A team like the Dodgers or Yankees has the luxury to buy the players needed to compete. They then fill a hole or two with prospects. They can also extend their stars. The Orioles have not show the willingness to do either thus far. If they do get the guys we want on the field many on this board are going to be unhappy.

2B: Holliday

DH/1B/3B/RF: Mayo

1B/C2: Basallo

Santander replacement: Kjerstad

For me, this is tough because I would feel better about dealing Basallo if Adley was locked up to a longer-term deal. I think the Stowers, Norby's, and Fabians of our system can get us upgrades without destroying our ability to fill holes in our lineup moving forward at a fraction of the cost of free-agent replacements.

Correct.

We also can get potentially use vets to get some pitching we need now or move them in the offseason for prospects. Plus we are likely looking at 3 top 40ish picks in the draft next year and maybe another extra pick depending on what happens with Santander.

We likely can get a solid MOR starter, 2 high leverage relievers and perhaps another starter in the mold of Detmers or Luzardo for prospects outside of our top 4 plus the potential of moving a few vet bats.

Again, I think the pen is the bigger key. We need to add 2 real arms to the pen. DC coming back will give us 3 to go with Kimbrel and whoever else is pitching well enough to be part of a playoff pen. (That’s really up in the air right now although you would think Cano would be one of the others)

[GoldGlove21]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Option A -

  Trade 1 or 2 of the top 4 prospects for a guy who gives up 2.34 runs per game with 2+ years of service time.

 

Option B -

 Trade none of the top 4 for a guy who gives up 2.98 runs per game with 1+ years of service time.

 

Is option B Fedde? If so, I say Fedde depending on what that looks like.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, GoldGlove21 said:

People who are offering up trades like Mayo/Holliday and Basallo are just silly. A pitcher is currently the odds of favor to win a CY Young this late in the season has never been traded as far as I know. That trade would suck because we are paying more for what he has done before potentially joining our team. We are ignoring the risk that comes with him and that, like Burnes, he will probably be too expensive for us to extend in 2.5 years. And the price for that is more in prospect capital than any other team has ever paid for a starting pitcher. People just do not understand that the Yankees Spencer Jones (haven't seen any trade proposals that include Dominguez and Jones) is not anywhere near the prospect that Holliday, Mayo, or Basallo is at this point. Basically Spencer Jones is Joey Ortiz as far as rankings were concerned. If the trade packages were Dominguez/Jones vs. Mayo/Basallo for example, our package would trump theirs. But it is breaking news that the Yankees would consider moving Jones for Skubal, lol.

Yea I have noticed that too.  
 

I have seen people asking, can Jones lead a package for Skubal while saying we need to move Holliday and more. It’s not even logical. Jones may be the most overhyped prospect right now, per Yankee criteria.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

Is option B Fedde? If so, I say Fedde depending on what that looks like.

Yep.  Fedde makes the most sense to me.   I like Skubal a lot and would probably be ok with a deal that didn’t include Holliday but why take that risk at all.   Skubal is really, really good but there’s a lot of stuff that can go wrong there.