Trevor Rogers 2024

[Baseball fandom]

24 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Means gave up 7 runs in 1 inning in his first AAA start this year and had another start where he gave up 5 runs in less than an inning. Kremer gave up 11 ER in 8.2 IP in his rehab stint this summer and has been fine since getting back to the O's.

So yeah it's just one decent minor league start for Rogers, but it's also just one blowup minor league start which we shouldn't overreact to. 

Fair enough but I will also argue Kremer hasn't been that good this year. 

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

Fair enough but I will also argue Kremer hasn't been that good this year. 

I agree, just pointing out that his bad AAA numbers weren't a sign that he was broken or forgot how to pitch.

[LookitsPuck]

A thing to keep in mind about Trevor Rogers is he was facing the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. They've scored 576 runs this year in 130 games (4.4 R/G), good for dead last in AAA. To put things in perspective, the best team has scored 753 in 132 games (5.7). 

I don't want to take away from his outing. It's encouraging especially compared to the disaster of his 1st minor league start. But let's try and couch things a bit here. Let's see how his next couple go.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

 

I don't want to take away from his outing. It's encouraging especially compared to the disaster of his 1st minor league start. But let's try and couch things a bit here. Let's see how his next couple go.

Was anyone flipping cartwheels over one good AAA start?  I hope not.  It’s a baby step in the right direction.  

[Baseball fandom]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

A thing to keep in mind about Trevor Rogers is he was facing the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. They've scored 576 runs this year in 130 games (4.4 R/G), good for dead last in AAA. To put things in perspective, the best team has scored 753 in 132 games (5.7). 

I don't want to take away from his outing. It's encouraging especially compared to the disaster of his 1st minor league start. But let's try and couch things a bit here. Let's see how his next couple go.

I'm surprised how many fans Rogers has on this site considering how poorly he has pitched. When you were one of the bigger tradeline pieces next to Eflin and have come up as small as he has. I don't know maybe it's just me,  I don't get it. We all hope the kid finds his way and will eventually succeed. Im not giving up on him but wow he has been bad.

[LookitsPuck]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Was anyone flipping cartwheels over one good AAA start?  I hope not.  It’s a baby step in the right direction.  

I hope not either.

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Obviously no one wants that. But Kikuchi averages about 1 WAR and was three months from free agency. Yes, it is possible that he completely washes out but he has a track record of being a decent pitcher with 3.5 WAR upside and 1.3 WAR just prior to the trade. I like the odds of Rogers next two years outperforming 3 months of Kikuchi, although Kikuchi is off to a nice start for HOU.

That’s a fair assessment of Kikuchi, but his situation can’t be compared to Rogers’.

Elias’ Focus with Rogers was two years of control, and he’s said nothing about him producing this season. So he was much more interested in that control and in-hopefully-fixing whatever is wrong.

With a team in the Orioles’ position, it’s poor planning to punt on the present in order to take a massive gamble on a productive two years. The trade has literally made the Os worse( for now) by subtracting trade pieces and adding someone who isn’t even better than Povich.

I entirely agree that the Astros paid too much for Kikuchi, but at least he’s currently a very valuable piece of their contending team.

The biggest problem with Rogers is his decreased velocity. It’s been going down for two seasons and I don’t know how easy it is to get that back.

[RVAOsFan]

11 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

I'm surprised how many fans Rogers has on this site considering how poorly he has pitched. When you were one of the bigger tradeline pieces next to Eflin and have come up as small as he has. I don't know maybe it's just me,  I don't get it. We all hope the kid finds his way and will eventually succeed. Im not giving up on him but wow he has been bad.

This has nothing to do with people on this site being Rogers fans.  This is about the success Elias and the developmental team have had in acquiring pitchers and working with and improving them.  Give these guys a chance to work with Rogers and see what they can do with him before calling this a bad trade.  Kyle Bradish was not a TOR starter or even top 100 prospect when he was traded for.

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, HowAboutThat said:

That’s a fair assessment of Kikuchi, but his situation can’t be compared to Rogers’.

Elias’ Focus with Rogers was two years of control, and he’s said nothing about him producing this season. So he was much more interested in that control and in-hopefully-fixing whatever is wrong.

With a team in the Orioles’ position, it’s poor planning to punt on the present in order to take a massive gamble on a productive two years. The trade has literally made the Os worse( for now) by subtracting trade pieces and adding someone who isn’t even better than Povich.

I entirely agree that the Astros paid too much for Kikuchi, but at least he’s currently a very valuable piece of their contending team.

The biggest problem with Rogers is his decreased velocity. It’s been going down for two seasons and I don’t know how easy it is to get that back.

All well said. The other concern I have w/ Rogers is his average 4 seamer velocity went from 92 pre-trade to 90 post-trade. It almost feels like acquiring damaged goods, which is perhaps more unforgiveable because he had injuries in 2022 and 2023.

We've seen, albeit in a SSS, that Norby has been a difference maker for the Marlins: nearly 0.7 WAR in 12 games, batting over 300, slugging over 600 and actually playing sound defense. Even Kyle Stowers has been playing solid defense and has been hitting lately. 

So, if we looked at this purely from *2024 impact*, the Rogers trade is failure. It made the team worse both hitting and pitching wise, oddly enough. 

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, RVAOsFan said:

This has nothing to do with people on this site being Rogers fans.  This is about the success Elias and the developmental team have had in acquiring pitchers and working with and improving them.  Give these guys a chance to work with Rogers and see what they can do with him before calling this a bad trade.  Kyle Bradish was not a TOR starter or even top 100 prospect when he was traded for.

We have to look at trade deadline trades for teams that are competitors from 2 standpoints for guys like Rogers:

• How does he help the 2024 club?
• How does he help the club in 2025 and beyond?

Well, he actually is hurting the 2024 club because not only did he presumably distract Elias from shoring up the major league rotation, he actually put together an ERA over 7, negative WAR, and only averaged 5 or less IP per start, so it put additional strain on the bullpen.

Now, the second part is still TBD. We can't say it's been a bad trade overall, but of the part we've been able to assess it's been a bad trade so far. 

I think it'd be different if Elias acquired a decent #5 starter *and* Rogers and immediately optioned Rogers. Alas...

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

That’s a fair assessment of Kikuchi, but his situation can’t be compared to Rogers’.

Elias’ Focus with Rogers was two years of control, and he’s said nothing about him producing this season. So he was much more interested in that control and in-hopefully-fixing whatever is wrong.

With a team in the Orioles’ position, it’s poor planning to punt on the present in order to take a massive gamble on a productive two years. The trade has literally made the Os worse( for now) by subtracting trade pieces and adding someone who isn’t even better than Povich.

I entirely agree that the Astros paid too much for Kikuchi, but at least he’s currently a very valuable piece of their contending team.

The biggest problem with Rogers is his decreased velocity. It’s been going down for two seasons and I don’t know how easy it is to get that back.

We did not punt the present. We got Eflin, Dominguez, and Soto. Seems you disagree with any focus beyond October but I don't see why we can't do some of each. This is what teams like Tampa do. I would rather get future value for Norby/Stowers than overpay for a rental. 

I don't think we are worse. Norby would be nice to have as a RHB but Slater has hit well for us, with better defense. Stowers wouldn't even play. 

Maybe there was some other trade out there for Norby, we just don't know. I have pretty high confidence that Elias values his prospects and got the best offer he could. 

[Baseball fandom]

56 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

This has nothing to do with people on this site being Rogers fans.  This is about the success Elias and the developmental team have had in acquiring pitchers and working with and improving them.  Give these guys a chance to work with Rogers and see what they can do with him before calling this a bad trade.  Kyle Bradish was not a TOR starter or even top 100 prospect when he was traded for.

And there has been others who hasn't. I hope you're right and I'm wrong. 

[LookitsPuck]

38 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We did not punt the present. We got Eflin, Dominguez, and Soto. Seems you disagree with any focus beyond October but I don't see why we can't do some of each. This is what teams like Tampa do. I would rather get future value for Norby/Stowers than overpay for a rental. 

I don't think we are worse. Norby would be nice to have as a RHB but Slater has hit well for us, with better defense. Stowers wouldn't even play. 

Maybe there was some other trade out there for Norby, we just don't know. I have pretty high confidence that Elias values his prospects and got the best offer he could. 

Immediately following the trade, this was the Orioles rotation:

Burnes, Eflin, GRod, Kremer, Rogers

Irvin was DFAd, Suarez went to the bullpen, Povich to the minors.

Yes, Eflin/Dominguez/Soto/Jimenez/Slater did shore up some gaping holes and/or holes around the margins. 

Even *if* Grayson didn't get hurt, the question became was Rogers/Povich/Suarez/McDermott good enough for the 5 spot?

The reason I question some things is as follows:

• At the time of the trade, Suarez had a 6.28 ERA, 847 OPS across 6 starts only averaging 4 2/3 IP/start. 
• At the time of the trade, Povich had a 6.27 ERA

So, to me, Povich and Suarez weren't great fallback options for if/when Rogers struggled. And I like Povich, but they needed help there. Yes, Suarez was forced back into the rotation because of the Grayson injury and Rogers crapping the bed, but the point is at the time it was really hoping that the 5 spot could be handed to Rogers.

It didn't work out. And it didn't work out worse because Grayson got hurt. Yeah, we really lucked out that Suarez remembered how to pitch again and has been arguably the best starter in the rotation not named Eflin not just recently but the entire year. Yes, even better than Burnes. 

What's telling to me is that Elias had to go out there and get Soto, Rivera when, in theory, Norby was right there. The Marlins apparently had no problem starting Norby at 3B. Yes, it's TBD if he can be average or above average there or if he's an improvement overall from Rivera, but Rivera was picked up off the scrap heap weeks after trade deadline (8/21). And keep in mind they did still have Urias, but they knew Mayo was a butcher at 3B, so why not have a guy that helps against lefties especially since this club has been poor against them lately?

I don't know, I'm mainly miffed because I generally don't like picking up somebody for next year and beyond, but clearly ignoring the #5 slot. It came across that Elias didn't care about the #5 hole because it can just be pieced together by a sum of the parts. But, as we've seen, all it took is somebody else to get hurt and another to completely fall apart (Burnes) to showcase that hope isn't a strategy.

Edited September 3 by LookitsPuck

[Baseball fandom]

56 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

We have to look at trade deadline trades for teams that are competitors from 2 standpoints for guys like Rogers:

• How does he help the 2024 club?
• How does he help the club in 2025 and beyond?

Well, he actually is hurting the 2024 club because not only did he presumably distract Elias from shoring up the major league rotation, he actually put together an ERA over 7, negative WAR, and only averaged 5 or less IP per start, so it put additional strain on the bullpen.

Now, the second part is still TBD. We can't say it's been a bad trade overall, but of the part we've been able to assess it's been a bad trade so far. 

I think it'd be different if Elias acquired a decent #5 starter *and* Rogers and immediately optioned Rogers. Alas...

I agree. This is good take. I'm sure SG will lump you with being a brick wall though. My point is he's been terrible this year when the Orioles needed another starter this year we're see about next year next year.  but that's SG for you Im done debating this with him

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HowAboutThat said:

That’s a fair assessment of Kikuchi, but his situation can’t be compared to Rogers’.

Elias’ Focus with Rogers was two years of control, and he’s said nothing about him producing this season. So he was much more interested in that control and in-hopefully-fixing whatever is wrong.

With a team in the Orioles’ position, it’s poor planning to punt on the present in order to take a massive gamble on a productive two years. The trade has literally made the Os worse( for now) by subtracting trade pieces and adding someone who isn’t even better than Povich.

I entirely agree that the Astros paid too much for Kikuchi, but at least he’s currently a very valuable piece of their contending team.

The biggest problem with Rogers is his decreased velocity. It’s been going down for two seasons and I don’t know how easy it is to get that back.

I doubt Elias made this trade thinking there was no way he was getting anything this year out of Rogers.   I’m sure it was more like, “he’s having a down year but has been pretty successful the last couple of months.  Hopefully that continues, but even if it doesn’t, we see some things that can be fixed that should make him useful in 2025-26.”   I wasn’t a big fan of this trade, but I’m not going to judge it based on whatever happens this year, even though I’m very disappointed that Rogers hasn’t helped us yet this season.  (I’m saying “yet” because there’s always a chance he comes back later this season.)