Bullpen acquisition/investment is the FO’s responsibility

[Pat Kelly]

Somehow the FO got this wrong.  Elias refuses to overpay or pay market rate for BP arms.   At times it seems Hyde may not seem to manage the BP well but the BP issues are really not his fault - they are on Elias. 

When Diaz went down last year after the WBC injury the Met's were cooked.  Seems the Os have had a delayed impact to Bautista injury impacting things, but incredible that Elias' did not solve this 3x.  First Time - end of last season but hard to do when the injury occurred and in the end Cano and others stepped up.   2nd time offseason - Kimbrel was not a solution but a high risk, reasonable cost option.  3rd time - the trade deadline when there is ample evidence about Kimbrell and BP issues combined with significant issues to the pitching staff and no farm system BP arms.   Unfortunate that Elias is still going to have to learn how to become not just a rebuild GM but a championship GM.  

Edited August 22 by Pat Kelly

[baltfan]

The pitch Winker hit wasn't even that bad of a pitch.  The same can be said of the pitch Sanchez hit two nights before.  It seems they both guessed right.

[ChuckS]

22 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

Somehow the FO got this wrong.  Elias refuses to overpay or pay market rate for BP arms.   At times it seems Hyde may not seem to manage the BP well but the BP issues are really not his fault - they are on Elias. 

When Diaz went down last year after the WBC injury the Met's were cooked.  Seems the Os have had a delayed impact to Bautista injury impacting things, but incredible that Elias' did not solve this 3x.  First Time - end of last season but hard to do when the injury occurred and in the end Cano and others stepped up.   2nd time offseason - Kimbrel was not a solution but a high risk, reasonable cost option.  3rd time - the trade deadline when there is ample evidence about Kimbrell and BP issues combined with significant issues to the pitching staff and no farm system BP arms.   Unfortunate that Elias is still going to have to learn how to become not just a rebuild GM but a championship GM.  

Some would argue the Texas Rangers had a bad bullpen last year and won the WS. 

It hurts our chances of going deep in the playoffs, but considering we had an averagish bullpen the first half of the year, there is hope we can get back there if we get Coloume and and Webb back. 

I didn't like the Kimbrel acquisition.  We paid for the name and the saves.  Would have much rather spent those funds on some quality middle/8th inning guys that could perhaps have been developed into closers.  I can't blame Elias much for not paying the market rate at the deadline for a serious upgrade, but more should have been done, particularly last offseason when we knew we would be without Bautista. 

Edited August 21 by ChuckS

[SemperFi]

It's not easy to judge Elias as we now know that JA was doing all he could to make the team more attractive at sale.  He most certainly did not have the ability to offer multiple year deals to FA pitchers-and you can't get good BP arms on one year deals.  Kimbrell is here only because he would essentially take a one year deal ($1m buyout).  The timimg of the sale also affected his ability to possibly add payroll or take on additional years.  Elias has to think roster and payroll construction 3-5 years out. 

It will be interesting to see the composition of next year's bullpen assuming he has the ability to add payroll.  The Orioles as of now are only a $1m buyout for Kimbrell and $1m for Bautista on the books-every other contract is a club option.  I think next year will be a better judge of Elias's ability to put together a pitching staff.

 

Edited August 21 by SemperFi

[Frobby]

I think it’s fair to hold Mike Elias accountable for this bullpen.  The injuries to the starters have been devastating and more than any GM reasonably could be expected to fully backfill, but I can’t say that about the bullpen.  Elias knew Bautista was out for the year and chose to make only one significant addition in Kimbrel.  And then at the deadline he picked up two guys the Phillies didn’t want in their pen for the pennant race.  If the results of those moves (or non-moves) are bad, he has to wear it.  The injuries to Coulombe and Webb have hurt, but I wouldn’t say losing 3-4 months of one reliever and a month or so of another is an unusual number of injuries for a bullpen.  

By the way, I still like Dominguez, despite the two walk-offs.   The one today was on a pretty decent pitch, to be honest.  

 

[Sports Guy]

We talked about this in the game thread.

It is his blind spot. 

[Spy Fox]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s fair to hold Mike Elias accountable for this bullpen.  The injuries to the starters have been devastating and more than any GM reasonably could be expected to fully backfill, but I can’t say that about the bullpen.  Elias knew Bautista was out for the year and chose to make only one significant addition in Kimbrel.  And then at the deadline he picked up two guys the Phillies didn’t want in their pen for the pennant race.  If the results of those moves (or non-moves) are bad, he has to wear it.  The injuries to Coulombe and Webb have hurt, but I wouldn’t say losing 3-4 months of one reliever and a month or so of another is an unusual number of injuries for a bullpen.  

By the way, I still like Dominguez, despite the two walk-offs.   The one today was on a pretty decent pitch, to be honest.  

The rotation decimation has hurt the pen too. Not only because a guy like Wells could possibly help the pen, but because with a healthier rotation you may not need to spend prospects on both Eflin/Rogers, and that trade capital might go towards the bullpen. 

But, I do agree with the thread premise anyway.  1) More could have been done to bring in known high impact arms, 2) They also haven't succeeded this year at pulling a Cano/Coulombe type off the scrap heap to be that impact guy.

[SilverRocket]

Curious if someone can do an analysis of the FA reliever options this past offseason. They always seem like such a crapshoot, where the best bullpens always have some guys who overperformed their history by a lot. Bautista, Cano, Coulombe. Britton and Brach.

I agree that the bullpen is the problem but our year wouldn't be that much better if we'd overpaid for Hader.

[LookitsPuck]

26 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

Somehow the FO got this wrong.  Elias refuses to overpay or pay market rate for BP arms.   At times it seems Hyde may not seem to manage the BP well but the BP issues are really not his fault - they are on Elias. 

When Diaz went down last year after the WBC injury the Met's were cooked.  Seems the Os have had a delayed impact to Bautista injury impacting things, but incredible that Elias' did not solve this 3x.  First Time - end of last season but hard to do when the injury occurred and in the end Cano and others stepped up.   2nd time offseason - Kimbrel was not a solution but a high risk, reasonable cost option.  3rd time - the trade deadline when there is ample evidence about Kimbrell and BP issues combined with significant issues to the pitching staff and no farm system BP arms.   Unfortunate that Elias is still going to have to learn how to become not just a rebuild GM but a championship GM.  

Here's the thing with Elias.

He's very good at reclamation projects and making adjustments from one year to the next on those players. He hasn't not shown the ability to do such in season with relievers or starters by acquiring somebody mid-range and somehow turning them amazing. Look at the Dodgers, they were able to do with Kopech. When's the last time Elias did that with...well...anybody mid-season? 

If we look at some of the relievers that has spent decent time in the pen over the years from Elias with bullpen arms:

• Cole Sulser - acquired in 2020, bad in 2020, excellent in 2021
• Tyler Wells - acquired in 2021, solid in 2021 as a reliever, solid as a starter in 2022, 2023, but hurt in 2024
• Cesar Valdez - excellent in 2020, stunk in 2021
• Joey Krehbiel - acquired in 2021, bad in 2021, solid in 2022, very good in limited action in 2023
• Travis Lakins Sr - acquired in 2020, was excellent in 2020, awful in 2021 and 2022
• Jorge Lopez - acquired in 2020 as a starter, was awful in 2020, 2021 and converted into a reliever and was amazing in 2022 prior to being traded - great return
• Bryan Baker - acquired in 2022, was very good in 2022, solid in 2023, been lackluster this year
• Cionel Perez - acquired in 2022, was excellent in 2022, regressed but decent in 2023, and has been hit/miss/injured in 2024
• Logan Gillispie - acquired in 2021, solid in 2022, bad in 2023
• Beau Sulser - acquired in 2022, decent in limited appearances
• Yennier Cano - acquired in 2022 trade (Jorge Lopez), excellent in 2023, very good in 2024
• Austin Voth - acquired in 2022, very good in 2022 as starter/reliever, lackluster in 2023 as reliever
• Danny Couloumbe - acquired in 2023, excellent in 2023 and 2024, but hurt
• Jacob Webb - acquired in 2023, excellent in 2023, hurt in 2024 probably from overuse but was very good to start the season then fell off a bit
• Shintaro Fujinami - acquired in 2023, was decent, but inconsistent and wild.
• Craig Kimbrel - acquired in 2024, was excellent in first half, abysmal in second half
• Burch Smith - acquired in 2024, was very good for his first 7 out of 9 appearances, but has been score upon in 5 out of his last 7 appearances and in his last 3 in a row, probably from overuse
• Gregory Soto - acquired in 2024, was awful to start for the O's, but now has 4 scoreless appearances in a row
• Colin Selby - acquired in 2024, has looked very good his first 2 appearances as an O
• Seranthony Dominguez - acquired in 2024, has looked very good until his last 3 appearances, has lost 2 games in a row...long ball has been the problem

Now, there have been well over a dozen more acquisitions as far as relievers go from Elias, but they were all pretty terrible. 

I think the main issue here is if you look at relievers over the years for Elias, he simply doesn't pay decent money for them via FA except for Craig Kimbrel. So it really requires a lot of luck: players not to get injured a la Felix, Coulombe, Webb or the analytics/pitching lab to make adjustments to get the most out of them.

The issue right now is that Elias put way too much faith into a pretty brittle core going into 2024. Akin was bad in 2023, Tate was hurt in 2023, Wells was hurt in 2023 and was starter depth, Baumann's numbers were worse than his ERA let on. There were a bunch of concerns about the bullpen going into this season, and Elias didn't address them aside from bringing in a bunch of castoffs like Yohan Ramirez (bad), Vinny Nittoli (cut, but was solid  for 2 appearances), Heasley (awful), Vieira (awful), Krook (awful), etc.

I did another post about the FA acquisitions in the offseason (MLB or MiLB contracts) regarding relievers): 

Elias acquired *1*. And that was Craig Kimbrel.

So, yeah, his luck has run out. And his trade deadline acquisitions all have warts. He hasn't struck gold with a reliever since Coulombe and Webb last year. 

 

[HowAboutThat]

Selby wasn’t great today. His stats are terrible but on Sunday he was terrific. 
any thought on him?

[LookitsPuck]

3 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

Selby wasn’t great today. His stats are terrible but on Sunday he was terrific. 
any thought on him?

A guy you can’t count on. The name of Selby’s game is inconsistency. It’s a combination of command/control. When he’s on, he looks unhittable. Pumps a high velo fastball and pairs it well with some wipeout pitches. The problem is he walks guys or when he falls behind he can just groove pitches. 

Is he fixable? He’s only 26, so maybe there’s pitch selection and mechanics changes he can make, but I think you’re going to have some stretches where he looks amazing and then some where you’re like…why is this guy up here?

He’s a reclamation project. There’s a reason why it took until late August for him to be called up. 

Ride the wave for as long as you can.

[accinfo]

10 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Here's the thing with Elias.

He's very good at reclamation projects and making adjustments from one year to the next on those players. He hasn't not shown the ability to do such in season with relievers or starters by acquiring somebody mid-range and somehow turning them amazing. Look at the Dodgers, they were able to do with Kopech. When's the last time Elias did that with...well...anybody mid-season? 

If we look at some of the relievers that has spent decent time in the pen over the years from Elias with bullpen arms:

• Cole Sulser - acquired in 2020, bad in 2020, excellent in 2021
• Tyler Wells - acquired in 2021, solid in 2021 as a reliever, solid as a starter in 2022, 2023, but hurt in 2024
• Cesar Valdez - excellent in 2020, stunk in 2021
• Joey Krehbiel - acquired in 2021, bad in 2021, solid in 2022, very good in limited action in 2023
• Travis Lakins Sr - acquired in 2020, was excellent in 2020, awful in 2021 and 2022
• Jorge Lopez - acquired in 2020 as a starter, was awful in 2020, 2021 and converted into a reliever and was amazing in 2022 prior to being traded - great return
• Bryan Baker - acquired in 2022, was very good in 2022, solid in 2023, been lackluster this year
• Cionel Perez - acquired in 2022, was excellent in 2022, regressed but decent in 2023, and has been hit/miss/injured in 2024
• Logan Gillispie - acquired in 2021, solid in 2022, bad in 2023
• Beau Sulser - acquired in 2022, decent in limited appearances
• Yennier Cano - acquired in 2022 trade (Jorge Lopez), excellent in 2023, very good in 2024
• Austin Voth - acquired in 2022, very good in 2022 as starter/reliever, lackluster in 2023 as reliever
• Danny Couloumbe - acquired in 2023, excellent in 2023 and 2024, but hurt
• Jacob Webb - acquired in 2023, excellent in 2023, hurt in 2024 probably from overuse but was very good to start the season then fell off a bit
• Shintaro Fujinami - acquired in 2023, was decent, but inconsistent and wild.
• Craig Kimbrel - acquired in 2024, was excellent in first half, abysmal in second half
• Burch Smith - acquired in 2024, was very good for his first 7 out of 9 appearances, but has been score upon in 5 out of his last 7 appearances and in his last 3 in a row, probably from overuse
• Gregory Soto - acquired in 2024, was awful to start for the O's, but now has 4 scoreless appearances in a row
• Colin Selby - acquired in 2024, has looked very good his first 2 appearances as an O
• Seranthony Dominguez - acquired in 2024, has looked very good until his last 3 appearances, has lost 2 games in a row...long ball has been the problem

Now, there have been well over a dozen more acquisitions as far as relievers go from Elias, but they were all pretty terrible. 

I think the main issue here is if you look at relievers over the years for Elias, he simply doesn't pay decent money for them via FA except for Craig Kimbrel. So it really requires a lot of luck: players not to get injured a la Felix, Coulombe, Webb or the analytics/pitching lab to make adjustments to get the most out of them.

The issue right now is that Elias put way too much faith into a pretty brittle core going into 2024. Akin was bad in 2023, Tate was hurt in 2023, Wells was hurt in 2023 and was starter depth, Baumann's numbers were worse than his ERA let on. There were a bunch of concerns about the bullpen going into this season, and Elias didn't address them aside from bringing in a bunch of castoffs like Yohan Ramirez (bad), Vinny Nittoli (cut, but was solid  for 2 appearances), Heasley (awful), Vieira (awful), Krook (awful), etc.

I did another post about the FA acquisitions in the offseason (MLB or MiLB contracts) regarding relievers): 

Elias acquired *1*. And that was Craig Kimbrel.

So, yeah, his luck has run out. And his trade deadline acquisitions all have warts. He hasn't struck gold with a reliever since Coulombe and Webb last year. 

 

Hey I don’t always agree with you on things here but that was a very good and fair analysis on his bullpen acquisitions.  He hasn’t paid for bullpen arms.  I agree with that as well.  Lets see how that changes this offseason with a better owner.

[Aristotelian]

47 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Some would argue the Texas Rangers had a bad bullpen last year and won the WS. 

It hurts our chances of going deep in the playoffs, but considering we had an averagish bullpen the first half of the year, there is hope we can get back there if we get Coloume and and Webb back. 

I didn't like the Kimbrel acquisition.  We paid for the name and the saves.  Would have much rather spent those funds on some quality middle/8th inning guys that could perhaps have been developed into closers.  I can't blame Elias much for not paying the market rate at the deadline for a serious upgrade, but more should have been done, particularly last offseason when we knew we would be without Bautista. 

Which quality 8th inning guy was available for less than the $10m or so we committed to Kimbrel?

[Just Regular]

Hader 19 and Kimbrel 13 were the top of the AAV's.     David Robertson near top was I believe a prominent Either/Or and has been a bunch better.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?&pos=rp

[LookitsPuck]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Which quality 8th inning guy was available for less than the $10m or so we committed to Kimbrel?

We're paying Kimbrel $13m. Using that as a litmus and somebody that was a quality pitcher in 2023, here are some arms. I think if we are to believe that the reason Elias didn't pickup a reliever for more is because some of the better arms were apparently looking for longer deals, then let's stick with guys that have 1 year deals:

• David Robertson - $11.5m
• Kirby Yates - $4.5m
• Nick Martinez - $14m + player option for 2025
• Brent Suter - $2.75m
• Jakob Junis - $7m (converted from starter to reliever in 2023)
• Emilio Pagan - $8.25m + player option for 2025
• Jesse Chavez - $740k, that said he's 40 y/o

I'm not going to count Chapman, because the dood is a scumbag. But if you want to, he was $10.5m. 

There were a bunch of other options that had decent/good 2023s, but have been bad in 2024, so not really listing those.