Gunner and Adley

[HowAboutThat]

The “Rutschman “ era is maybe the most clearly defined definite beginning in all Orioles history. The day he showed up(May 21,2022)things changed. EVERYTHING was better, and continued better until the plague hit this past June. Since then, in 1451 ABs, a bit over two full seasons, he’s got 12.6 WAR.

Whatever he brought to the team(and I have no idea what it was) it has value. Every negative thing said about AR is true, but the drop off has been so extreme that there must be some unknown-to the fans, anyway-cause. Maybe as Sports Guy has said, it’s an undisclosed injury. Regardless, once it is discovered and dealt with, things should improve, and that’s when we should revisit the extension question.

The change he catalyzed was too significant to be a temporary thing, and fans should clamor to keep it.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Baseball fandom said:

Yeah unfortunately he's more Wieters than Posey or Mauer. It kind of sucks that the Orioles took what many thought were generational catchers and they may turn out just decent but nothing special. Shoot I take Salvi Perez numbers from him. If Perez played in NY or LA  we would hear so much more about him. 

Wieters 18.3 rWAR in 12 years, Adley 12.6 rWAR in 2.5 years.  They’re not that close.  

It kind of boggles my mind how people are writing off the rest of Adley’s career based on 2 tough months.  

As to Salvador Perez, I agree he’s been an underpublicized player.  He’s also an example of a catcher who wasn’t done as a good player by age 30.   

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wieters 18.3 rWAR in 12 years, Adley 12.6 rWAR in 2.5 years.  They’re not that close.  

It kind of boggles my mind how people are writing off the rest of Adley’s career based on 2 tough months.  

As to Salvador Perez, I agree he’s been an underpublicized player.  He’s also an example of a catcher who wasn’t done as a good player by age 30.   

 

To be fair though, a large majority of the WAR Wieters accured was early on. 13.3 WAR in his first 4 seasons.  The worry is that Adley does something similar.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To be fair though, a large majority of the WAR Wieters accured was early on. 13.3 WAR in his first 4 seasons.  The worry is that Adley does something similar.

That’s a fair point.  How worried about it are you?   For me, it’s a possibility but not a very high likelihood.  

[Baseball fandom]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wieters 18.3 rWAR in 12 years, Adley 12.6 rWAR in 2.5 years.  They’re not that close.  

It kind of boggles my mind how people are writing off the rest of Adley’s career based on 2 tough months.  

As to Salvador Perez, I agree he’s been an underpublicized player.  He’s also an example of a catcher who wasn’t done as a good player by age 30.   

 

Oh I'm not writing him off and apologies if it came off that way but I think most of us were expecting  more. This year in particular  Frobby you have to admit he has been a big disappointment. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s a fair point.  How worried about it are you?   For me, it’s a possibility but not a very high likelihood.  

If the defense is going to be an issue going forward, it’s a big concern for me.

I don’t think Adley is an elite bat.

And the concern is also with the backdrop of a 7-10 year extension for 140-200M. So, all of your concerns have to be measured against that.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

Oh I'm not writing him off and apologies if it came off that way but I think most of us were expecting  more. This year in particular  Frobby you have to admit he has been a big disappointment. 

Even last year was slightly disappointing. He played 40 games more and saw a very small WAR increase.

Many of us thought he was going to be a 7+ WAR guy in 2023. He was still very good but not close to that level.

Edited August 26 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

Just now, Baseball fandom said:

Oh I'm not writing him off and apologies if it came off that way but I think most of us were expecting  more. This year in particular  Frobby you have to admit he has been a big disappointment. 

The last two months he’s been a disappointment.  Before that, he played extremely well and deservedly was voted the starter in the all star game.  Others have pointed to an HBP on his hand in late June as a turning point, and I think it’s certainly possible that’s the reason for his sudden downturn.  But I don’t know that and he certainly hasn’t said that’s the reason.  

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm wondering if Boras is waiting for the Soto contract data point before engaging the O's about a Gunnar extension.  He would use Soto and Ohtani as comparables with the additional expense of Gunnar's defense.  I'm thinking the more likely extensions will be Westburg and Holliday.  I'm still in favor of an extension of with Adley but I only want 2 extension years with a couple of options.  I doubt he's interested in that.  If he's performing at an All Star level, some team will give him 5 or 6 years at close to $30 mill/year as a free agent, despite the fact that he will be declining rapidly.

[Baseball fandom]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If the defense is going to be an issue going forward, it’s a big concern for me.

I don’t think Adley is an elite bat.

And the concern is also with the backdrop of a 7-10 year extension for 140-200M. So, all of your concerns have to be measured against that.

I respect your opinion SG so my question to you is this a lot of stats shows he is a much better DH then catcher. Now to be fair I haven't looked in awhile. Has those stats dropped considerably as well? I know even if he is a very productive DH the Orioles did not draft him 1 1 over Witt to be a very good DH. Andrew Vaughn in that draft was projected to have a great bat but absolutely no one wanted the Orioles to take him 1 1 as a 1B

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

I respect your opinion SG so my question to you is this a lot of stats shows he is a much better DH then catcher. Now to be fair I haven't looked in awhile. Has those stats dropped considerably as well? I know even if he is a very productive DH the Orioles did not draft him 1 1 over Witt to be a very good DH. Andrew Vaughn in that draft was projected to have a great bat but absolutely no one wanted the Orioles to take him 1 1 as a 1B

I put more on the idea that he usually bats righty as a DH than anything else.

Thats the clear difference to me.

[Baseball fandom]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The last two months he’s been a disappointment.  Before that, he played extremely well and deservedly was voted the starter in the all star game.  Others have pointed to an HBP on his hand in late June as a turning point, and I think it’s certainly possible that’s the reason for his sudden downturn.  But I don’t know that and he certainly hasn’t said that’s the reason.  

 I wonder if there is a reason the Orioles are keeping this info guarded publcy. Us fans would certainly feel very much relieved if we knew this was a big part of his sharp decline and not some scouting reports that caught up to him and is exposing his weakness.  

[HowAboutThat]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If the defense is going to be an issue going forward, it’s a big concern for me.

I don’t think Adley is an elite bat.

And the concern is also with the backdrop of a 7-10 year extension for 140-200M. So, all of your concerns have to be measured against that.

Adley has a career 125 OPS+. What level is considered elite? And is the term position-dependent? This year, as a catcher, he’s got 115, which is probably upper echelon for catchers, though I haven’t checked.

[HowAboutThat]

14 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm wondering if Boras is waiting for the Soto contract data point before engaging the O's about a Gunnar extension.  He would use Soto and Ohtani as comparables with the additional expense of Gunnar's defense.  I'm thinking the more likely extensions will be Westburg and Holliday.  I'm still in favor of an extension of with Adley but I only want 2 extension years with a couple of options.  I doubt he's interested in that.  If he's performing at an All Star level, some team will give him 5 or 6 years at close to $30 mill/year as a free agent, despite the fact that he will be declining rapidly.

Holliday won’t sign an extension, but I wouldn’t give him one until he shows his defense is worth it.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

 I wonder if there is a reason the Orioles are keeping this info guarded publcy. Us fans would certainly feel very much relieved if we knew this was a big part of his sharp decline and not some scouting reports that caught up to him and is exposing his weakness.  

It’s their MO.   We never tend to hear about nagging injuries that guys are playing through until the year is over.