Should Rubenstein relieve Mike Elias of his duties?

[ledzepp8]

39 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

 

Is the O's roster in 2024 stronger than 2023?

 

 

Well they've lost 9 key contributors to either season ending injuries or long stretches on the IL. Obviously the roster is probably not as strong this season due to injuries. And yet they still have the second-best record in the AL.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Probably more years honestly. 

No one should ever doubt Elias' role in turning this franchise around. 

The question that we will need to ask at some point (not even close to now), is he the guy that can take the team to the next level or sustain this level of success over 5-7 year span? 

He's now judged on his success on the major league diamond. He will be judged by how far his team goes in the playoffs. 

Now this season, depending on who returns from injury, I'm willing to give him a bit of a mulligan because of the injuries. He looks to have improved his team at the deadline with Eflin (assuming he doesn't miss significant time) and the two Phillies trades for Dominguez and Soto.

The Rogers trade though looks like he should fire his professional scouts, and the fact this team needs to to play Eloy and Slater speaks to its lack of depth at the upper levels in the hitting department, despite drafting mostly college hitters with his first 5 rounds since 2019.

Either way, I think we all agree that the Orioles, despite two months of absolute mediocrity, are still going to the playoffs and as we've seen, if they get hot then, no one will remember or care about these two months.

People keep mentioning that about Slater and Eloy but are we really doubting Mayo as a bat?  And what about the injury to Kjerstad?  That’s your depth right there.

Every contending team has guys like Slater and Jimenez getting a lot of at bats. Look no further than that Dodgers lineup last night. Look at the Yankees lineup outside of the 2 HOFers.

I think they have handled Mayo poorly all year and that is hurting them now. 
 

Right now, Holliday is getting in those at bats where you would expect most rookies to struggle, especially one who is 20 years old. It just so happens that he’s doing it in a pennant race and is even more in the spotlight because he has to play every single game, whereas under normal circumstances, he likely would be getting more days off.

And the reality is the struggles are happening because our best players are sucking. Burnes, Henderson, Kimbrel and Adley haven’t been good..Santander had a rough August outside of some homers.

When your elite and best players struggle, you are going to struggle to win.

Edited August 30 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Cool.

We have Rogers for 2025 and 2026 though, and I suspect his acquisition had a lot more to do with those years than this year. 

He was clearly a reclamation project rather than a pure "win now" move. It's crazy to me how few people seem to realize this.

Well when a lot of people are in "win now" mode and seem to think that this is the only season where we'll have a shot at winning a World Series...it's not surprising.

I agree, the Rogers move looks bad now...and it might end up being a bad move.  But a lot of people don't have the patience to see if Rogers is a guy that can help next year....they're so focused on this year.  

[ledzepp8]

36 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are surprised that people still support a GM of an organization that was once a laughing stock, but is now in it's second pennant run in two years despite a multitude of injuries? All because the team has played slightly below .500 baseball for two months?

You asked the question, you got the responses. Changing it to something completely different, something I've already have a thread on (drafting and development) is not going to change that you asked a question that is going to get little support, even by the most frustrated of fans.

 

This right here. It's perfectly reasonable to be upset, irritated, concerned (whatever word you want to use) about the struggles since the AS Break. But you have to have some perspective. Injuries have decimated this team and yet they're still right there. No other team is running away with anything this season. Perhaps there's more parity this year. Maybe it's injuries around the league. Who knows? There isn't one team on pace to win 100 games.

[DrungoHazewood]

41 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I am somewhat shocked by the support of Elias, so perhaps I can take another approach

That's not surprising, since your whole shtick for the entire time you've been on the board is to take the most negative, curmudgeonly, contrarian position on everything, and then act surprised when few agree with you. In 2014 you were absolutely *stunned* that everyone disagreed with your thought that they should have torn the team down to the drywall at the deadline and rebuilt from scratch. (Note the 2014 Orioles won the division by 12 games.)

As Tony and others have noted, hiring Elias and giving him the freedom to build the organization is the best thing that's happened to the Orioles since they won the Series in '83. I think that firing him because the team has under-performed a bit due to a ton of injuries would be tragically short-sighted. It would be a very Peter Angelos kind of move. I hear Phil Regan is still alive, and pretty spry for 87. Maybe he's up for taking over Elias' job?

[milbest77]

No way. Won’t happen, especially given the injuries this season. That said, that Rogers trade is shaping up to be Elias’ Arrieta for Feldman trade…

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

See what Tony wrote. He nailed it to a T for me. 

I read what Tony wrote, and it's good.  I agree with it.

I also read the part where he and SG said that Elias is the most important thing to happen to this franchise in the last 25 years.  IMO, he's easily the most important thing that's happened to this franchise in the past 30+ years...going back to the opening of Camden Yards.  

He's not without faults, that's for sure.  But after having watched this franchise since the late 80s and perpetually having a barren farm system and hardly any young talent to get excited about and to build around, this is essentially what I and others have been waiting for.  

[Baseball fandom]

Bottom line for me Elias will finally work for an owner who looks like he will be willing to spend he won't be handcuffed anymore. I'm sure he's excited  to be finally shopping with the middle class teams at the very least now instead of the lower class. Taking the payroll from 30 to even in the 12 to 15 range after being at the bottom during his whole tenure here I'm excited to see what he does. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep mentioning that about Slater and Eloy but are we really doubting Mayo as a bat?  And what about the injury to Kjerstad?  That’s your depth right there.

Every contending team has guys like Slater and Jimenez getting a lot of at bats. Look no further than that Dodgers lineup last night. Look at the Yankees lineup outside of the 2 HOFers.

I think they have handled Mayo poorly all year and that is hurting them now. 

Has every other organization made drafting college hitters their main selections in rounds 1-5? 

That's really my point. If you are going to use this draft strategy, then you have to hit on more of these guys. If you're not going to use much high draft capital on pitchers, you are going to have a wasteland of useable pitchers in the upper levels, and will be scanning the AAA opt out wire for pitchers. Unfortunately, with the way the Orioles use their relievers so often, these guys end up pitching in tie or one run games.

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, milbest77 said:

No way. Won’t happen, especially given the injuries this season. That said, that Rogers trade is shaping up to be Elias’ Arrieta for Feldman trade…

So what if it is?

The idea that we have to have a GM that has to win every trade and constantly being the one to fleece other teams and being so ignorant to think that our GM would never lose a trade or get fleeced is being intentionally obtuse. 

He's going to have some trades not work out in his favor.  That's just part of the game.  

 

[milbest77]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

So what if it is?

The idea that we have to have a GM that has to win every trade and constantly being the one to fleece other teams and being so ignorant to think that our GM would never lose a trade or get fleeced is being intentionally obtuse. 

He's going to have some trades not work out in his favor.  That's just part of the game.  

 

Of course, agreed. But this one is baaaad so far. I do think next year should be a barometer year for both Elias and Hyde. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

Sadly you had to remind me we have got multiple years. Yuck.

That was the reason the trade was made. The FO clearly thinks they can fix him and get good value for his final 2 arbitration years in 2025 and 2026.

Maybe they can, or maybe they can't, but that was very obviously the logic behind the trade.

Again, it's crazy to me how many people who are complaining about the deal do not understand this and are judging it exclusively through the lens of its impact on 2024. 

[Warehouse]

Getting rid of Elias would be ridiculous, destabilizing, and impair the prospects of the organization going forward.  You can take issue with specific personnel decisions, but much more important are the processes, structure, culture, cross-department coordination, and commitment  to best-in-class baseball ops.

That doesn’t everything will go perfectly the next few years.  The Red Sox may have a better young core of talent.  Rubinstein will invest but he’s been clear he won’t lose money - even if we spend 50% of revenue on payroll, we’re still at a large disadvantage given financial disparities in the league.  However, Elias gives us our best chance at a ring.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Has every other organization made drafting college hitters their main selections in rounds 1-5? 

That's really my point. If you are going to use this draft strategy, then you have to hit on more of these guys. If you're not going to use much high draft capital on pitchers, you are going to have a wasteland of useable pitchers in the upper levels, and will be scanning the AAA opt out wire for pitchers. Unfortunately, with the way the Orioles use their relievers so often, these guys end up pitching in tie or one run games.

 

I don’t disagree. I said this 2 years ago. I have consistently talked about this for several years but was mocked because I questioned Elias and never saw the players play.

What I was talking about was the strategy and why I didn’t like it.

I agree that this is one of Elias’ blind spots. He needs to pivot from that and have a different approach.

[tntoriole]

52 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The simple answer is no.  

This team has been decimated by starting pitching injuries and the team is still in a battle to win the division despite the fact it has played so poorly since late June. 

Now, saying that, do I have questions about things on how Elias and his staff does things? Absolutely.

I've been a vocal opponent of his draft strategy of not drafting pitching very high which is why the system is barren of help right now. I'm also not convinced despite the technologies they use, that they develop players and pitchers all that well. I've certainly detailed my concerns with their drafting and development of pitching in multiple posts.

Think about this, Elias has spent a lot of draft capital drafting college hitters since 2019, yet this team still has Eloy Jimenez and Austin Slater getting PAs during a pennant drive?

We've seen multiple rookies come up and just out right stink. Not struggle a bit, but have historically bad starts to their major league careers and it makes me wonder if the hitting approach taught is something sustainable at the major league level. 

We've seen Elias bury players like Ortiz and Westburg (for half a season) last year, and Norby over the last few years, only to see them success once given an opportunity at the major league level. 

Norby, who always had a major league bat, is hitting well for the Marlins, but the worse part is they've converted him to 3B where he's done pretty well. The Orioles tried to shoehorn him to 2B where he was never a good fit and then gave him some outfield time, but barely ever gave him 3B reps. Why? Yes, I know Mayo is playing there, but Mayo continues to struggle with his throwing so why is he still at 3B when you have Westburg already playing 3B? 

None of it makes any sense. Urias has been a disaster at 3B this season defensively so would the team be worse right now with Norby at 3B and Urias at 2B and Holliday back in AAA trying to get better? 

But Norby was sent away with Stowers (who has struggled but I still think will find a major league role) for Trevor Rogers, who's stuff was shockingly bad before getting sent to AAA where he's struggled.

Now, that trade looks awful right now, but the bigger issue is not perhaps developing Norby correctly and making the wrong assessment on his bat. Norby has spent the last two and half years telling Elias that he was ready for major league pitching, so why was he playing positions that he was blocked at, and never going to be good at? 

Now, saying that, the Eflin trade as well as the Phillies trade are looking good (Go look at what Soto has done in his last 6 outings), but the reliance on AAA opt out and waiver claims for a contending team is a little concerning, and tells us about the true depth of his upper levels. 

So yes, that's a lot of negatives, but the results are what matter. A lot has gone wrong this season with Bradish, Means, and Wells being lost for the season along with Coulombe, Webb, Westburg, Grayson and even Mateo being lost for good bits of the season. That's a lot of guys expected to contribute this season in major roles. 

I believe Elias has absolutely done an amazing job of turning this organization around. He absolutely has led this franchise from being a joke to being what looks like an annual contender. Are their warts that are starting to show a bit? Yes. Has he shown he can put a team on the field that can go deep into the playoffs? Not yet. 

We also don't know what he can do with an offseason of having an owner that should spend money. 

Am I saying that it's valid to be critical of some areas of the organization? I do.

Am I ready to say he should go? Absolutely not. 

 

 

Absolutely!!  This season has been disrupted primarily by injuries.

If this team had a healthy Kyle Bradish, Grayson, Eflin, John Means , Felix .. we would be many games up in the AL East race easily.  The loss of Westburg and Mateo have hurt offensively and defensively.

i agree that the organization is short of pitching and this will need to be shored up in free agency or trade a la the Eflin deal. 
 

But, no, ME has done an outstanding job as has Brandon Hyde.  We now just need to get a few guys back and do a Texas Rangers run to WS!!