Should Rubenstein relieve Mike Elias of his duties?

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, milbest77 said:

Of course, agreed. But this one is baaaad so far. I do think next year should be a barometer year for both Elias and Hyde. 

It is bad so far, but I don't believe this deal was made for this season and this season alone.  

A lot will happen between the end of this season and this time next year.  Too much to predict, too much to be able to talk about now.  I think Elias and Hyde are safe for this year and probably next year, too.  After that, we'll see.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well when a lot of people are in "win now" mode and seem to think that this is the only season where we'll have a shot at winning a World Series...it's not surprising.

I agree, the Rogers move looks bad now...and it might end up being a bad move.  But a lot of people don't have the patience to see if Rogers is a guy that can help next year....they're so focused on this year.  

It's very frustrating.

Maybe Mike should have been clearer about the fact that he was not only trying to improve this year's team at the trade deadline, but also getting some of our offseason shopping done early too (even though it was already pretty obvious).

[kidrock]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

And the reality is the struggles are happening because our best players are sucking. Burnes, Henderson, Kimbrel and Adley haven’t been good..Santander had a rough August outside of some homers.

When your elite and best players struggle, you are going to struggle to win.

To me, this is it.  Sure we can complain about a little of this and that, but at the end of the day, the best players on this team are not playing well.  They all have a history of playing well to some extent, but aren't now.  If these guys were just playing a bit better, we probably have 5-7 more wins over the last two months and the team doesn't feel so bad.  Does Elias control these guys, maybe indirectly with the coaching staff and approach, but I dont understand why they played well and then fell off.  Not sure I can blame Elias very much for that.

[Three Run Homer]

I don't think we should fire Elias...yet.  We need to see what he can do with a deep-pockets owner who (hopefully) is willing to spend money to sign quality free agents to multi-year contracts.  

Elias is obviously outstanding at tearing down a bad team and building it back up through the farm system.  He is also outstanding at identifying players on the scrap heap who can help the team--Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, Yennier Cano, Austin Slater.   These are the skills that have brought the Orioles back to relevance.

We have yet to see whether Elias can take the next step and make transactions involving proven major league talent that can put a good team over the top.   He gets an incomplete for now because he has been hamstrung by a cheapskate owner. 

We also have yet to see whether Elias can craft a championship caliber pitching staff.  His draft strategy prioritizes hitting over pitching, meaning he needs to use trades and free agent signings to build a pitching staff.  It's not clear yet that this strategy can work.  

Another way of putting it is this:  Elias has been a tremendous GM for the Orioles to this point.  But it's possible that it's time to move on and get a GM that knows how to handle prosperity.  

[Sammy Seagull]

Good thought, but first Hyde must be dismissed before Labor Day. Turn the team over to Fredi for remainder of 2024 and bring up Britton in 2025.

[Too Tall]

I read this should Elias be relieved, and I think back to Syd Thrift and laugh. No GM is perfect. If you think our new owner is even light years from firing the architect of this team at this time - just five months into ownership - if you think he projects as that kind of businessman - I'm sorry I have to really question your observation, listening, and reasoning skills. 

[Baseball fandom]

25 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That was the reason the trade was made. The FO clearly thinks they can fix him and get good value for his final 2 arbitration years in 2025 and 2026.

Maybe they can, or maybe they can't, but that was very obviously the logic behind the trade.

Again, it's crazy to me how many people who are complaining about the deal do not understand this and are judging it exclusively through the lens of its impact on 2024. 

In a pennant rafe they needed a guy who can help them this year not a wing and prayer for next year. Chances are every bit as good if not better that he can't be repaired. As they say some the best trades are the ones that are never made. 

[gtman55]

16 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Another way of putting it is this:  Elias has been a tremendous GM for the Orioles to this point.  But it's possible that it's time to move on and get a GM that knows how to handle prosperity.  

This offseason will be really telling. Elias has been great at taking a franchise that was way down and built it back to relevancy. He's done a fantastic job at that.

There are signs though that maybe that's his main area of expertise. His reluctance to draft quality pitchers and instead to stockpile position players may be a strategy that isn't viable long term. And I think he's done a mediocre job of getting talent in return for the prospects we've given up.

It will be interesting to see how wide Rubenstein opens his pockets and how Elias spends that money.

 

 

 

 

[Warehouse]

Also, people seem to be jumping to some firm conclusions on Norby based on 32 PAs with the Marlins.  

While the top line stats have been terrific during this heater, he also has 32.4% whiff rate and 33.3% hard hit rate.  This is consistent with his AAA performance this year over more than 400 PAs in which he had a 29.7% whiff rate and 33.5% hard hit rate.  

There are only two MLB hitters this year with at least 250 PAs, a whiff rate > 30%, and a hard hit rate < 35%.  They are Nick Gordon and Kevin Kiermaier. 

Norby has also cut down on his chase since his call up to the Marlins. Can he keep this up? We’ll see.

Across Baltimore and Miami, he has also been scored as negative 3 for outs above average.

IMO he still has ways to go to prove that he is an everyday MLB starter.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

You can agree to disagree...but the Rogers trade really isn't a hill to die on, either.  It's not the trade to judge Elias on.  And if you want to judge Elias and hold that trade above anything/everything else like it's some kind of trump card...well, I think you'd be one of a few doing that.

It’s such an odd stance to take and it’s really baseless since we have almost no information.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

In a pennant rafe they needed a guy who can help them this year not a wing and prayer for next year. Chances are every bit as good if not better that he can't be repaired. As they say some the best trades are the ones that are never made. 

I think it’s fair to say he should have traded those guys for more immediate help.

What trade was offered to them that would have allowed that to happen?

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s such an odd stance to take and it’s really baseless since we have almost no information.

I get the reaction of wanting to get a stud starting pitcher to help us down the stretch.  I really do.  IMO, Eflin is that guy, he's been fantastic since we got him.  

If Rogers could have helped this year, great...if not, well, I'm curious to see what they can do to help him improve the offseason and for the next two seasons.

Stowers...whatever.  I can see why people liked him and had hopes for him.  IMO, he was a K machine and didn't really do much with the opportunities given to him here.

I liked Norby, but he and Stowers were always the first two mentioned on here in any hypothetical trade, it was almost like a knee jerk reaction.  And now that he's off to a good start in Miami, people are having some sort of buyers remorse.  Like I said earlier, sometimes you win trades, sometimes you lose trades.  But the book on this one isn't written yet but that doesn't stop people from acting like it has been.

[RZNJ]

If we make the playoffs it will be the first time making the playoffs in consecutive seasons in 27 years.    We are positioned for playoff contention for the next 3-4 seasons, if not longer.   Elias isn’t above criticism.   He’s made some poor moves at both deadlines but it’s amazing to think that an Oriole fan would actually want this guy out.

[Baseball fandom]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s fair to say he should have traded those guys for more immediate help.

What trade was offered to them that would have allowed that to happen?

Personally I liked Fredde

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get the reaction of wanting to get a stud starting pitcher to help us down the stretch.  I really do.  IMO, Eflin is that guy, he's been fantastic since we got him.  

If Rogers could have helped this year, great...if not, well, I'm curious to see what they can do to help him improve the offseason and for the next two seasons.

Stowers...whatever.  I can see why people liked him and had hopes for him.  IMO, he was a K machine and didn't really do much with the opportunities given to him here.

I liked Norby, but he and Stowers were always the first two mentioned on here in any hypothetical trade, it was almost like a knee jerk reaction.  And now that he's off to a good start in Miami, people are having some sort of buyers remorse.  Like I said earlier, sometimes you win trades, sometimes you lose trades.  But the book on this one isn't written yet but that doesn't stop people from acting like it has been.

People are ignoring the idea that they are old prospects. They were getting to the point where you may have struggled to find any value for them and they just didn’t have a place here.