Fire Tony Mansilino

[Safelykept]

11 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

The O's 2024 playoffs may be like the 2014 and 1997 teams where we choked again and again. The final 1997 game we had bases loaded almost every inning and lost 1-0, and the 2014 team couldn't buy a run, we losing 2-1 I think a couple of games and lost 4 straight.

In 2014, 2 extra inning games and tw0 2-1 games. They lost all 4. In 1997 lose 4-2 series to Cleveland including 4 1 run losses. In two of those Games Mike Mussina was combined 15 IP, 1 ER, 4 hits, 25 SO, Whip of 0.53, lost 2-1 and 1-0. Not sure this team will keep it that close.

[TomDominick]

Anything hit in the outfield no matter how deep you automatically tag up. That is learned in little league. This is not hard. I had a play exactly like this in town ball. You go back to the bag and then watch. As soon as the shortstop went down off you go and the game is over. Why that third base coach was pointing DOWN the line is a cardinal sin. Don't fire the guy but give him a solid scolding. 

[Frobby]

Seems like a good thread to consider whether Mansolino has done a good job generally.  

The O’s have been thrown out at home only 11 times, tied for 6th fewest in MLB (13.3 is average).  

They have scored from 1st on a double 41.5% of the time, vs. league average of 38.2% of the time.

They have scored from 2B on a single 62.9% of the time, vs. league average 61.8% of the time.  

The O’s have been thrown out at 3B 6 times, tied for 3rd fewest in MLB.

They have gone 1st to 3rd on a single 36.2% of the time, vs. league average 31.9%.  

So, the overall profile is that the O’s take an extra base to get to 3B or score on a single or a double at a greater rate than the average team, yet they are thrown out trying to do those things less than the average team.

Not all the credit or the blame for these things falls on the 3B coach.   And, there are some plays involving the 3B coach that I can’t capture, like scoring from 3B on a fly out or a ground ball.   However, based on what we can capture, I think you’d have to say that Mansolino has done a pretty good job, despite individual decisions that may have been wrong.


 

[Just Regular]

One thing I wonder about the play is if on the fly unusual incentives got factored in.

Any other inning, any other score, 2nd and 3rd no out is much preferable to Gunnar on 3rd, 1 out.

But when Holliday is the winning run, do you only need a smaller probability of success to try it?

Granted the batted ball was one of those long singles, short doubles where for most non-Gunnar players it is a single.

But I've seen Jorge Mateo 1st to home on a single/double like that, and Holliday may be trending toward that EBJ like role for the playoff roster.

The second baseman fumbling the ball on the relay in from Meadows gave me a sick feeling about the hold.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

One thing I wonder about the play is if on the fly unusual incentives got factored in.

Any other inning, any other score, 2nd and 3rd no out is much preferable to Gunnar on 3rd, 1 out.

But when Holliday is the winning run, do you only need a smaller probability of success to try it?

Granted the batted ball was one of those long singles, short doubles where for most non-Gunnar players it is a single.

But I've seen Jorge Mateo 1st to home on a single/double like that, and Holliday may be trending toward that EBJ like role for the playoff roster.

The second baseman fumbling the ball on the relay in from Meadows gave me a sick feeling about the hold.

I wax out last night and didn’t see the play.   But overall, a runner on 3B with nobody out has about an 84% chance of scoring.  A runner on 3B with 1 out has about a 66% chance of scoring.   So maybe that suggests that you send the runner if he has better than an 18% chance of being safe, since you are only reducing your chances of scoring by 18% if he’s out.   But that’s pretty counterintuitive.   

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wax out last night and didn’t see the play.   But overall, a runner on 3B with nobody out has about an 84% chance of scoring.  A runner on 3B with 1 out has about a 66% chance of scoring.   So maybe that suggests that you send the runner if he has better than an 18% chance of being safe, since you are only reducing your chances of scoring by 18% if he’s out.   But that’s pretty counterintuitive.   

Also, it assumes Gunnar would have advanced safely to 3B if the Tigers had tried to throw out Holliday at the plate.   No guarantee that happens.   

[Safelykept]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Also, it assumes Gunnar would have advanced safely to 3B if the Tigers had tried to throw out Holliday at the plate.   No guarantee that happens.   

Why not DP on two tag outs with that speed.

[Uli2001]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Seems like a good thread to consider whether Mansolino has done a good job generally.  

The O’s have been thrown out at home only 11 times, tied for 6th fewest in MLB (13.3 is average).  

They have scored from 1st on a double 41.5% of the time, vs. league average of 38.2% of the time.

They have scored from 2B on a single 62.9% of the time, vs. league average 61.8% of the time.  

The O’s have been thrown out at 3B 6 times, tied for 3rd fewest in MLB.

They have gone 1st to 3rd on a single 36.2% of the time, vs. league average 31.9%.  

So, the overall profile is that the O’s take an extra base to get to 3B or score on a single or a double at a greater rate than the average team, yet they are thrown out trying to do those things less than the average team.

Not all the credit or the blame for these things falls on the 3B coach.   And, there are some plays involving the 3B coach that I can’t capture, like scoring from 3B on a fly out or a ground ball.   However, based on what we can capture, I think you’d have to say that Mansolino has done a pretty good job, despite individual decisions that may have been wrong.


 

Please do second half stats. I am tired of seeing stats to justify this team's poor play that take into account the first two months of the season, which is a long time ago.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

Please do second half stats. I am tired of seeing stats to justify this team's poor play that take into account the first two months of the season, which is a long time ago.

Here’s an idea: you want second half stats on this stuff, you go find them.   So far as I know, splits on base running stats like these don’t exist.   But in any event, if you want something more detailed than what I gave, why should that be my job?  Do it yourself!

[Chelsea_Phil]

Testy?

[Chelsea_Phil]

Well given another home run robbing catch, I do understand 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

Testy?

Yes.  I get tired of looking up stats that other people don’t bother to look up, and then being told that’s not enough.  Do it yourself if you don’t like what I’ve done!

And the play of our team is making me testy as well.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  I get tired of looking up stats that other people don’t bother to look up, and then being told that’s not enough.  Do it yourself if you don’t like what I’ve done!

And the play of our team is making me testy as well.  
 

Let em know, Froberto Duran!