How does Povich fit into your 2025 plans?

[LookitsPuck]

7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Man, don’t sleep on Povich. 16 starts at a 5.20 ERA in his true rookie year in the AL East. He also has been pretty healthy I believe. 

I think he gives us 30 GS and drops his ERA to the 4.50-4.70 range. 

He’s developing. He’s LH and a SP. He’s our current #4 SP. 

First 16 starts from:

• GRod - 5.44 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.407 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9
• Bradish - 5.63 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.538 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9
• Povich - 5.20 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.431 WHIP, 7.8 SO/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9

[btdart20]

Eflin, Grayson, and Kremer are ahead of Povich now.  Likely Suarez too.  Rogers is a dark horse that needs a new jockey or something.

I doubt he's traded.  He could be optioned.  "When" we bring in another SP, his OD odds will change the most.

[Jim'sKid26]

I think you have to ask yourself what Povich needs to do to replicate Max Fried's early career results. 

If you look at their physical profiles they are very similar. Fried is an inch taller and 5 lbs heavier. He throws about 2 mph harder on his 4SFB. They have similar pitches but different mixes. 

If I'm Povich I'm looking at film of Fried from 2019 when he was 17-6 over 165.2 IP and struck out 173 guys. I'm studying his mechanics and looking at his pitch shapes and pitch mixes from that year. 

Povich needs to gain some good weight and some velocity over the off season. I think he showed that he belongs on an MLB roster by how he pitched in September. 

[Allan Bryant]

18 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

He has options so start him in AAA if he doesn't make the rotation for opening day. I do not think we should trade away pitching depth.

This ^ , totally agree .  You can never have too much pitching 

[Hallas]

Is Povich someone that could add a couple mph on his fastball if he bulks up?  Slim might be a little toooo slim...

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

First 16 starts from:

• GRod - 5.44 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.407 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9
• Bradish - 5.63 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.538 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9
• Povich - 5.20 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.431 WHIP, 7.8 SO/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9

Say it louder from the back!

So many people for some reason poo-poo on Povich when I thought he held his own quite well in his debut. Of course he's got some improving to do, but we've seen him throw the ball very well. 

Just to add to your first 16 starts list:

• Kremer - 6.59 ERA, 5.50 FIP, 1.58 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.7 BB/9. 

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Is Povich someone that could add a couple mph on his fastball if he bulks up?  Slim might be a little toooo slim...

I think at his age he's going to be what he's going to be velocity wise. Some guys are just going to be slim. He's not going to suddenly gains 15 pounds of muscle.

[emmett16]

SP4 or SP5 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I think I’d like to see him definitely be depth with an opportunity to bust down the door. He can kind of play the Cole Irvin role and hopefully succeed better in the swing man role.

I think he’s earned opportunities at the ML level and we should prioritize his development, but it will help if he can eat some innings outside the rotation as well.

The Orioles don’t always seem to do it, but there are other organizations that let a guy hone his pitching craft in relief, be depth, and make their way into the rotation if they earn it.

I think he could play an important role in 2025. 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Grt 2BA FL Gator

[Jim'sKid26]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think at his age he's going to be what he's going to be velocity wise. Some guys are just going to be slim. He's not going to suddenly gains 15 pounds of muscle.

Why not? And does he need 15 lbs or maybe only 5-7? Guys are adding velo all over baseball right now. If anything adding velo is probably the easiest thing for him to do in the off season. Jeez, I'd happily introduce him to friends at Driveline or TredAthletics tomorrow if he reaches out to me. 

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

You don't necessarily have to add that much weight to get significantly stronger.  That's an older 90's and early 2000's way of thinking based on the bodybuilding culture of weightlifting.  Exercise science has evolved quite a bit.  For skill sport athletes especially. 

With that being said, from television views, he doesn't look like he has spent much time in a weight room.  Even skinny strong guys I talked about in para 1, usually have muscular definition like trap development, forearm striations, etc that are visible.  His body looks like one of those things that blow in the wind outside car dealerships.  

[Roll Tide]

22 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Eflin, Grayson, and Kremer are ahead of Povich now.  Likely Suarez too.  Rogers is a dark horse that needs a new jockey or something.

I doubt he's traded.  He could be optioned.  "When" we bring in another SP, his OD odds will change the most.

Rogers

 

if we have that rotation I’m betting our win total takes another 5-10 game step backwards 

[mcneck]

He reminds me an awful lot of Brian Matusz. His command needs to be nearly perfect to be effective. The stuff is decent but not great and in this day and age where guys are turning around 100 MPH fasrballs he's very hittable.

[waroriole]

On 10/4/2024 at 2:00 PM, LookitsPuck said:

First 16 starts from:

• GRod - 5.44 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.407 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9
• Bradish - 5.63 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.538 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9
• Povich - 5.20 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.431 WHIP, 7.8 SO/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9

Much better K numbers from Grayson and Bradish. 

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I think I’d like to see him definitely be depth with an opportunity to bust down the door. He can kind of play the Cole Irvin role and hopefully succeed better in the swing man role.

I think he’s earned opportunities at the ML level and we should prioritize his development, but it will help if he can eat some innings outside the rotation as well.

The Orioles don’t always seem to do it, but there are other organizations that let a guy hone his pitching craft in relief, be depth, and make their way into the rotation if they earn it.

I think he could play an important role in 2025. 

 

I think the Orioles don’t do that because they’ve never had enough pitching to be able to do that. Any warm body has been forced to make 10-15 starts. If we sign the SP we should sign, Povich should start in that swing role and get the opportunity to solidify himself.