Would this offseason make you happy or is it not enough?

[clapdiddy]

I'd be good with this approach.   I would prefer to get a proven masher in the lineup, but those guys are rarely available and/or out of the O's price range.

[forphase1]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In the one thread where I asked where do you believe the Os stand, win wise, right now, the average was in the 84-88 win range.

That is either a team in the playoffs or one that is a borderline playoff team.

Not including any money owed to those off the roster (like Chris Davis), I peg the current payroll to be around 82 million, which does include keeping Mullins and OHearn and trading Mounty.

If the Os did that and added Carson Kelly, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler ONeill and Nick Pivetta(or a similar starter that you may prefer), would you be happy with that offseason or would you feel they didn’t do enough?

I figure that adds around 40M to the payroll.

I'd be a bit disappointed.  I'd be fine with Kelly, Hoffman and O'Neil, I actually like those 3 moves, depending on length of contracts and the like.  But if Pivetta is our big SP add, I'd feel they didn't do enough.  I'm not against Pivetta being signed as a PART of the SP upgrades maybe, but don't want him to the the headliner.  If we don't end up with a Burnes/Snell/Fried I'm going to be a bit disappointed.  

That said, there are a few other moves I'd like to see.  I'm more than ready to move on from the Mountcastle/O'Hearn platoon at 1st base, and would like to see us sign a full time first baseman like Walker.  Sure, in a perfect world we could put Mayo there, but from what we saw last year I'm not sold that he can do it.  I know it was a SSS, but still.  

If that was our offseason, it makes us a better team, so that's a good thing.  But I'd be a bit unhappy and would feel like they didn't do quite enough to improve the team.

[Too Tall]

I like this approach. So yes, I'd be satisfied. I am not  big splash or bust. This approach or similar makes a lot of sense to me. We have the potential. This supports and enhances that potential IMO. 

[Orioles0615]

Unless there are extensions this would not be a good offseason for new ownership. Just screams Angelos approach, IMO which means Elias is more than problem. Take risks for once 

[LookitsPuck]

That offseason would stink, to be quite honest. And Rubenstein should be rightfully criticized if that's all it was. The O's roster would be an 84-85 win club if that's all they did. 

Jeff Hoffman would be a great pickup.

Nick Pivetta is a middle/back of the rotation guy and would be a big step back from Burnes. 

Carson Kelly is a backup C and a lateral move to McCann.

Tyler O'Neill would be a fine replacement for Santander. 

They need more. A Eflin, Grayson, Pivetta, Kremer, Povich/Suarez/Rogers/McDermott rotation just isn't good enough. That's also not enough depth. You simply can't count on Rogers and his 88-89 mph fastball, nor can you count on Suarez to repeat (although he'd be a fine bullpen/depth arm as a starter). 

This bullpen, even adding Hoffman, is still a liability waiting to happen. 

This club needs 2 bullpen arms, 2 starters, a backup C, and at least 1 OF/DH type as well as some sort of investment in the young core by way of contract extensions. I'm sick of hearing "well it takes 2 to tango". That's balderdash. If the Royals can do it, the O's can do it. 

Edited 2 hours ago by LookitsPuck

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Orioles0615 said:

Unless there are extensions this would not be a good offseason for new ownership. Just screams Angelos approach, IMO which means Elias is more than problem. Take risks for once 

This wouldn’t be an Angelos offseason as it would be multiple multi year commitments where the players are making 8 figures.

And yes, Elias isn’t a GM likely to go nuts in FA because he knows it’s largely foolish to do so.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

In the one thread where I asked where do you believe the Os stand, win wise, right now, the average was in the 84-88 win range.

That is either a team in the playoffs or one that is a borderline playoff team.

Not including any money owed to those off the roster (like Chris Davis), I peg the current payroll to be around 82 million, which does include keeping Mullins and OHearn and trading Mounty.

If the Os did that and added Carson Kelly, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler ONeill and Nick Pivetta(or a similar starter that you may prefer), would you be happy with that offseason or would you feel they didn’t do enough?

I figure that adds around 40M to the payroll.

I'm not sure Kelly has a ton of value. His defensive metrics are declining. His ZIPs projections for 2025 is 301 PA, .226/.306/.365 for 8 HR and 13 2Bs. Why not just keep McCann?

Tyler O'Neill I can get behind. That would be a solid pickup.

I would hope they can do better than Pivetta. I agree with you that Snell makes much more sense if you want to win.

With Jeff Hoffman, are you paying for the last two years in Philly? Because before that he was not good. With relievers being as volatile as they are, what's the contract look like. I'd be worried about paying for 2023-2024 level performance and getting the pitcher you saw in Cincinnati in 2021-2022.  

So give me McCann, O'Neill and Snell. Do what the O's do and find a cheap and effective BP arm or two off the scrap heap.  I'd be good.

[JR Oriole]

Pivetta in 14 career starts against the Os has a 3.19 ERA and 79 IP. So basically, he averages 5 2/3 against us giving up 2 runs per start.  Feels like we always have a hard time with him, so I would definitely be in favor of that signing if anything so we don't have to face him anymore.  The last time I saw Tyler O'Neill, he was sending us home with a monstrous home run.  Good player and definitely one I would like.  I like Carson Kelly, but he doesn't have any postseason experience and O'Neill doesn't have much either....so I would like to add at least one good bat who has won some games in October before.  Hoffman was so bad in the playoffs this year that I am hesitant to add another Phillies pitcher that just spent his time in the postseason getting rocked. I am fine with trading Mounty, as I don't enjoy watching him hit anymore.   

[Just Regular]

Elias would have to win three different bids against 29 other, how does he like to say it, "tough competitors" to get this done.

It would be a pony, but I don't think we're getting a pony.

A lot of O'Neill talk, but Walltimore I think Elias would have to give him a very nice contract.    As a free agent, he is Santander adjacent and if his market is so soft he needs another prove it situation, not even an assured full time job in OPACY probably would be near the bottom of the list.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I'm not sure Kelly has a ton of value. His defensive metrics are declining. His ZIPs projections for 2025 is 301 PA, .226/.306/.365 for 8 HR and 13 2Bs. Why not just keep McCann?

Tyler O'Neill I can get behind. That would be a solid pickup.

I would hope they can do better than Pivetta. I agree with you that Snell makes much more sense if you want to win.

With Jeff Hoffman, are you paying for the last two years in Philly? Because before that he was not good. With relievers being as volatile as they are, what's the contract look like. I'd be worried about paying for 2023-2024 level performance and getting the pitcher you saw in Cincinnati in 2021-2022.  

So give me McCann, O'Neill and Snell. Do what the O's do and find a cheap and effective BP arm or two off the scrap heap.  I'd be good.

Kelly is a clear upgrade to McCann and I’m not sure where you get that his defensive numbers declined. They were better than most of his numbers since 2020.

And yes of course you are paying for 2 years of dominant relief from Hoffman. He has been a full time reliever for 3 seasons but one of those seasons was cut short because of a bone bruise in his elbow. So he has had 2 years of being a full time, healthy reliever and he’s been excellent.

Edited 2 hours ago by Sports Guy

[StottyByNature]

31 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Unless there are extensions this would not be a good offseason for new ownership. Just screams Angelos approach, IMO which means Elias is more than problem. Take risks for once 

I tend to agree attempting an extension with Henderson would far outweigh any of these moves.  If they signed all four plus extended Henderson I would be overjoyed.

I just don't agree with others saying that its gotta be Burnes/Snell/Fried.  We have no indication that the new ownership is willing to give out those kinds of contracts, especially to pitchers.  I think it is much more likely we trade for someone like Crochet than sign one of those guys.

[casadeozo]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

In the one thread where I asked where do you believe the Os stand, win wise, right now, the average was in the 84-88 win range.

That is either a team in the playoffs or one that is a borderline playoff team.

Not including any money owed to those off the roster (like Chris Davis), I peg the current payroll to be around 82 million, which does include keeping Mullins and OHearn and trading Mounty.

If the Os did that and added Carson Kelly, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler ONeill and Nick Pivetta(or a similar starter that you may prefer), would you be happy with that offseason or would you feel they didn’t do enough?

I figure that adds around 40M to the payroll.

I think this would be a coup of an offseason though I think with the injuries to SP we need at least 2x starters added.

Snell and Pivetta

Snell and Buehler

or Snell and a trade (ie Detmers, Woo)

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

I think this would be a coup of an offseason though I think with the injuries to SP we need at least 2x starters added.

Snell and Pivetta

Snell and Buehler

or Snell and a trade (ie Detmers, Woo)

I would be very happy with any of this.

Even if we can’t get Snell and did a Pivetta and those guys combo, that would be great.

But I think the second starter is the one they already traded for…Rogers.

[Jim'sKid26]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kelly is a clear upgrade to McCann and I’m not sure where you get that his defensive numbers declined. They were better than most of his numbers since 2020.

Help me understand your affection for Carson Kelly. His DRS has gone from 1 to -6  in two years, his other stats are solid. He does throw well. So I will give you that he has very good defensive value. He very well might be a defensive upgrade over McCann. Familiarity with the pitching staff notwithstanding.

However, he a RH pull hitter whose primary offensive value is his power. Not a great fit in OPACY. In fact, according to Baseball Savant, there is no park in all of baseball where his adjusted HR (6) would be lower.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Help me understand your affection for Carson Kelly. His DRS has gone from 1 to -6  in two years, his other stats are solid. He does throw well. So I will give you that he has very good defensive value. He very well might be a defensive upgrade over McCann. Familiarity with the pitching staff notwithstanding.

However, he a RH pull hitter whose primary offensive value is his power. Not a great fit in OPACY. In fact, according to Baseball Savant, there is no park in all of baseball where his adjusted HR (6) would be lower.  

He’s a better framer and thrower than McCanN and he’s better offensively.  Like I said the other day, he was worth more fWAR in 2024 than McCann has been worth the last 4 years combined.

And even if you don’t think he’s a 1.8 guy going forward, he’s still likely an upgrade over McCann.

And he’s several years younger.

The issue is that he may get more than 1 year and I wouldn’t do that.

Edited 1 hour ago by Sports Guy