Do you agree with Jordan picking Hobgood at #5?

[BaltimoreFan]

I honestly don't understand how people can be "unhappy."

Do you not think that Joe Jordan and his employees have thoroughly scouted out all of the guys?

If this was a college pitcher then things may be different, but seriously, a high school pitcher who none of you have ever heard of? And you're disappointed? How?

[QBsILLEST1]

I dont see how anyone can be disappointed. I mean if you get over the superficial judgements of us drfafting a guy who wasnt one of the "big" names, and judge him based purely on his stuff, you see how special he can really be. He is a monster, hes huge and his body will be able to endure some innings and apparently he is expected to possibly add a few more MPH even from a few articles I read. He has a plus fastball now with major boring action (not projected plus, already plus) and also has a plus curve that will IMO be fringe plus plus when all said and done, a slurvy slider and a developing change up.....4 pitches that all may end up above average.....off the chart intangibles.....comapre that to Wheeler and Matzek, I like what we got and seeing as how his stuff right now grades out as good as Crow's yet Hobgood is younger and could still gain velo and we control how much mileage goes on his arm, I dont see how anyone can be upset.......

[Pushmonkey]

I'm going to wait on my opinion until he actually pitches for the O's in some fashion.

[Mizerooskie]

FWIW, in their last Mock Draft, Baseball America had Hobgood going #11:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2009/268312.html

It's not like Jordan et al. took a guy with a second round grade.

The overreaction here is absurd, especially considering that most with a negative opinion know next to nothing about the players available.

[hoosiers]

Sounds like Jordan got his guy - though it sounds like there are about 15 different pitchers who could emerge from this draft as 3s or better. It also sounds like there was a TON of misinformation out there regarding how teams felt about players as we see who comes off the board between 15-25. The draft is a crapshoot and we have to trust that our scouting director can work it better than the others.

Regarding Hobgood, I like his write-up in Baseball America. It sounds like there is tremendous upside to this guy with few negatives.

[PHRESH]

The MLB Draft is today??

[fansince71]

I know nothing about this kid but the Orioles sure do come up with some weirdly named players in the draft. Guys like Beau Hale, and now Hobgood! It makes me yearn for the Boddicker's and Mussinas of the world.

Would you prefer Chris Smith or Mark Smith?:rofl:

[Flip217]

I guess I trust Jordan. The kid's just 18, isn't he? How the heck do we know how he'll develop yet?

Seems like he's got the raw materials to be a success. Now we have to be patient and see what happens.

[DrungoHazewood]

Let's try this again, in a more calm fashion...

I have no idea of anything about Hobgood except that you apparently loathe the selection. So based on that it sounds good to me.

[Mackus]

I honestly don't understand how people can be "unhappy."

Do you not think that Joe Jordan and his employees have thoroughly scouted out all of the guys?

If this was a college pitcher then things may be different, but seriously, a high school pitcher who none of you have ever heard of? And you're disappointed? How?

I had almost the exact same post but instead of "unhappy" I wrote "happy".

How can anyone be "happy" with this pick? Its a guy almost none of us had ever heard of until 4pm today because he was so under the radar.

I totally understand and agree with trusting Jordan and am excited to find out more about this guy and see him make his pro debut, but you really can't say you are "happy" with this pick, since its obviously a reach compared to general consensus. I think its fair to say "he's a reach here but hopefully whatever Jordan sees in him will show up when he starts playing". I trust Jordan, but I also don't think it was the best pick based on what everyone else rates these guys.

Its fine for Jordan to prefer a lower-rated guy (by the general scouting community) far more than everyone else does and pick that guy. He'll get a ton of credit if he ends up making it. And, similarly, he'll get and deserve a ton of flack if he doesn't make it. When you swim against the current, the results are either very good or very bad, it basically eliminates the "well he didn't pan out but he was a good pick at the time" option. In 5 years we'll either be saying "Man, that was a great pick by Jordan, he proved his rankings are better than the general consensus" or "Man, it was a reach then and it looks really stupid now".

[Three Run Homer]

The pick doesn't make a lot of sense based on the published scouting reports available prior to the draft, which listed his fastball at 89-92. Even with good sink and a good curve, that doesn't sound like a 1-2 starter.

But according to what Tony has heard, our people concluded that the scouting reports are outdated and that he actually throws quite a bit harder than advertised. If he really throws more like 92-95, then this is a reasonable pick given his size, intangibles and stuff.

Like I've said elsewhere--Jordan is going against conventional wisdom here, which is fine--you want decision makers who think for themselves and trust their own judgment. But when you do that, you'd better be right.

[DrungoHazewood]

Its fine for Jordan to prefer a lower-rated guy (by the general scouting community) far more than everyone else does and pick that guy. He'll get a ton of credit if he ends up making it. And, similarly, he'll get and deserve a ton of flack if he doesn't make it. When you swim against the current, the results are either very good or very bad, it basically eliminates the "well he didn't pan out but he was a good pick at the time" option. In 5 years we'll either be saying "Man, that was a great pick by Jordan, he proved his rankings are better than the general consensus" or "Man, it was a reach then and it looks really stupid now".

Like I've said elsewhere--Jordan is going against conventional wisdom here, which is fine--you want decision makers who think for themselves and trust their own judgment. But when you do that, you'd better be right.

This is the rational response to this pick. Nobody else seemed to have Hobgood this high. But Jordan saw something in him that made him say "this guy is worth taking with a pick we've used on Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz."

Unless he's Chris Smith II (or Wally Bunker Jr.) it'll be quite a while before the final grade is in, so we'll all just have to sit back, watch, and wait. Hopefully yesterday Jordan was the smartest guy in the room.

[Hallas]

The draft lends itself to making "reach" picks such as this one because you can't trade picks. The only way you can get value from a situation such as this, where the best player on your board is different from what everyone else is saying, is to futz with the signing bonus.

That said, I trust Jordan and what he's doing, and I trust that McPhail will extract appropriate value from this pick via a lower signing bonus. If it increases our ability to successfully do a draft-and-follow in later rounds, then it will have been worth it.

[Hutman]

The draft lends itself to making "reach" picks such as this one because you can't trade picks. The only way you can get value from a situation such as this, where the best player on your board is different from what everyone else is saying, is to futz with the signing bonus.

That said, I trust Jordan and what he's doing, and I trust that McPhail will extract appropriate value from this pick via a lower signing bonus. If it increases our ability to successfully do a draft-and-follow in later rounds, then it will have been worth it.

How can you say this is a reach pick?? I mean the guy was the HS Player of the Year. BA had him going 11 in their mock draft. Obviously the O's had him in for a workout along with White and Wheeler. The saw some things they liked in him over the other guys. He's a big kid who has played football amongst other sports and not a 100% baseball kid. He loves the game and looks like he wants to sign fairly quickly and get a year of summer ball in, instead of waiting until 8/17 at 11:55pm and miss a whole summer of grooming. While he was not the # 1 guy on my board, whats not to like?

[DrungoHazewood]

How can you say this is a reach pick?? I mean the guy was the HS Player of the Year. BA had him going 11 in their mock draft. Obviously the O's had him in for a workout along with White and Wheeler. The saw some things they liked in him over the other guys. He's a big kid who has played football amongst other sports and not a 100% baseball kid. He loves the game and looks like he wants to sign fairly quickly and get a year of summer ball in, instead of waiting until 8/17 at 11:55pm and miss a whole summer of grooming. While he was not the # 1 guy on my board, whats not to like?

Velocity, conditioning, other sources had him as a mid-to-late first round pick, and the fact that (historically) there's a measurable falloff in expected future value even between the #5 and the #11 picks.