1st Round Pick - Matt Hobgood - RHP - HS

[JTrea81]

One scouting report has him as a potential top of the rotation guy. What is a potential #1 or #2 worth?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...=.jsp&c_id=mlb

If he can be Joba part II, he would be a nice trade chip, or allow us to deal one of the Big Three as I mentioned earlier.

[TyCobb]

My qualms with Hobgood are 1) he's a HS pitcher with 2 pitches. The change doesn't count, it's not good enough yet. My criteria for HS pitchers are 2 plus and one average for the first round. He's not there. 2) He's carrying a lot of weight on that frame, and that's fine if he can pitch there, but it could lead to knee problems with all that repetition, and if it's because of lack of motivation, that worries me a bit.

I like his make-up, he's a good kid, and I hope the best for him. Just wouldn't have been my pick.

How do you know what his pitches are? Scouting reports you read?

[Echoes]

Who isn't giving this kid a chance? Who is saying that Jordan is an idiot for making this pick? I think almost everyone is saying exactly what they should be saying:

He's a stretch at #5, but Jordan likes him so I hope he's right and whatever he sees that others don't is what he really is.

There's just a lot of negativity, and people going on about certain deficiencies of his and whatnot even though they've never seen him pitch. Which I think is absurd.

[Echoes]

How do you know what his pitches are? Scouting reports you read?

Exactly. That's pretty much my point. People are having qualms over the quality and numbers of his pitches even though they've never seen him pitch in a game.

[SrMeowMeow]

Okay, here's my two cents: what's wrong with it being a signability pick? If it's signability in the sense of "we want to get the cheapest picks possible", then yes, I would be upset. But what about this scenario (which I think may be what's going on right now):

a) Resources are finite. I know we all want Angelos to "let go of the purse strings", but I think Wieters proved that he's willing to pay. Regardless, no team has an unlimited budget.

b) You like Wheeler and Matzek better, but only a little. So you take Hobgood because he's cheaper, even though you rate him a bit lower. So it is a cost-saving move. But...

c) You then re-allocate the three or four million dollars you saved to later rounds, not to line your own pockets. We got Arrieta for (a record-high) 1.1 million dollar bonus in the 5th. If we can get two or even three second round talents in later rounds with the cash we save by taking Hobgood, isn't that a defensible and maybe even optimal strategy?

[dorfmac]

Exactly. That's pretty much my point. People are having qualms over the quality and numbers of his pitches even though they've never seen him pitch in a game.

I don't get your point at all. I'd say that the average poster on here can only rely on scouting reports whether they've seen the player or not. Can you accurately differentiate between a plus-curve and an average curve? Or can you tell if a player throws a "heavy" fastball?

I know I can't. Even if you can, the scouts know more than you, or any other random poster who's seen him pitch in a game. Just like Jordan gets paid to make the draft choice, and has a better idea than we do, the scouts get paid to make judgments on these players, and have a better idea than we do.

[mweb]

Based on what Tony has reported and what Joe Jordan said, I don't have an issue with this pick although it's certainly seems like a reach based on what was expected.

[Can_of_corn]

Baseball America has a member only piece called No Money Pick about Hobgood. Any new or interesting information behind the wall of password required?

[Mackus]

There's just a lot of negativity, and people going on about certain deficiencies of his and whatnot even though they've never seen him pitch. Which I think is absurd.

Should there be a lot of positivity? With people going on about certain abilities of his and whatnot even though they've never seen him pitch?

People are just basing this pick on where he was projected to go. The general consensus was he was a late first round pick, maybe a mid-first at best, and we took him #5. The "general consensus" isn't some uninformed mob, its a variety of professional and amateur scouts who get paid to do this, they are a smart group and their collective opinion, while obviously not gospel, is a very good baseline.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist (and just for good measure, I am!) to see that he was a reach at #5. That's fine, and I trust Jordan just like so many else on here, but its not unfair to anybody to call him a reach. He was, and Jordan will get all of the credit in the world for him if he pans out and all of the blame if he ends up not making it.

[rolliefingers]

I wonder how many people on here have actually watched Hobgood pitch a full game? Hmm... but hey, let's keep those stones flying.

"But I read on the internet that he's..." :rofl:

Let's give the kid a chance. I trust Jordan on this one more than any one on this message board to say the least.

This is such an easy, unoriginal type of post that I need to comment on it.

Nobody on this board can - or does - claim to know as much as professional scouts do about the guys in this draft. That's why there are a million websites devoted to figuring out who's best.

You get enough of those opinions - a good percentage of them serious sites with a tendency AGAINST groupthink - and the average fan can make a somewhat educated guess as to who the best players are.

Hobgood was widely considered a low-first round talent. Not terrible, but certainly a reach at #5.

Maybe (no, definitely) Jordan knows something we don't. I'd like to know what that is.

Jordan has delivered enough good drafts that I'm willing to wait and see - particularly in terms of signing some good guys later on who dropped due to signability concerns.

But please, let's stop pretending that some of us have no reason or right to be skeptical about this pick. What the hell are we posting here for, if we can't talk honestly about what we think?

[Sports Guy]

It is way more amusing that people are jumping on those doubting the pick.

Jordan isn't perfect by any means...and all of the publications had Hobgood ranked lower...The list that Greg and others had him ranked 36th.

So, it seems as if it was definitely a reach...however, what also seems to be the case in this draft is that everyone was very similar...so, because of that, Jordan took the player he liked the most.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

When I saw that we selected Hobgood, I was innitially dissapointed because Matzek, Crow, and Wheeler were available. However the more I read about him the more I like about him. First I already said that I am trusting Jordan no matter who we select, well time for me to back up the talk. Second, he sounds like his offspead pitches need developing, like his change up. We have the young starters in our system to give some one like a Hobgood a couple of years to develop (maybe around 3/4), Jordan decided to pick a high schooler with a "high ceiling", and I think he took the right chance for going for a guy like Hobgood. We have had countless discussions on OH that we do not really have an ace and our big three projects to be more of a 2/3 guy. I am not saying Hobgood is a sure front of the rotation starter, but he definatly has that chance. Lastly, seeing the videos on his fastball and curveball, I cannot wait to see what he does in the minors. I think this was a great pick for the O's, is he a stretch maybe a little, but he's a guy I hope we sign early so maybe he can play some short season ball. If we drafted Matzek then we would have to wait all the way until the August 14 deadline.

[Crazysilver03]

If we drafted Matzek then we would have to wait all the way until the August 14 deadline.

Actually, the deadline has been extended to Monday, Aug 17th.

[Hank Scorpio]

In case it gets buried in the other thread :

http://masnsports.com/2009/06/hobgood-thrilled-to-be-an-orio.html

And to calm down the Trea :

Hobgood was asked if he was suprised to go as high as the fifth pick.

"I wasn't suprised. Joe Jordan called about an hour and a half before the draft. He said if Dustin Ackley was there at five, they would take him, but if not, I was going to be an Oriole. We were all cheering for Ackley to go before fifth."

[Big Mac]

In case it gets buried in the other thread :

http://masnsports.com/2009/06/hobgood-thrilled-to-be-an-orio.html

And to calm down the Trea :

Hobgood was asked if he was suprised to go as high as the fifth pick.

This pretty much shows the pick wasn't about the money.