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1st Round Pick - Matt Hobgood - RHP - HS


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Ok.. you have Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta 1-3... and you have Britton over Patton and Erbe.

I'll bite... why? I would assume you look at Britton, and see him 2 years younger than Patton, and only 1 level below... and that is a fair arguement.

On the other-hand, after missing an entire year to the labrum, Patton is being consistently good at the AA level (with better control than Britton), and has already reached the bigs once in his career.... while Britton has yet to see AA.

I really don't think you can currently have Britton higher, unless you think his stuff is just much better.

Also think you have a hard time making the case for Britton over Erbe.

Troy Patton

9/3/85

AA Bowie

6-2, 1.85 era, 58.1 innings, 45 hits, 4 homers, 14 bb’s, 44 k’s

Brandon Erbe

12/25/87

AA Bowie (DL)

1-3, 0.90 era, 20 innings, 11 hits, 2 homers, 8 bb’s, 19 k’s

Zack Britton

12/22/87

A Frederick

3-2, 2.11 era, 59.2 innings, 45 hits, 3 homers, 30 bb’s, 53 k’s

I like the GB/FB ratio. I like the fact that his stuff seems to get better as the season goes along. I think he fits into OPACY better b/c he can keep the ball on the ground. Erbe and Patton have some injury concerns from me. Patton coming off a difficult surgery. There is not a wrong answer here just opinions.

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I wonder how many people on here have actually watched Hobgood pitch a full game? Hmm... but hey, let's keep those stones flying.

"But I read on the internet that he's..." :rofl:

Let's give the kid a chance. I trust Jordan on this one more than any one on this message board to say the least.

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I guess I'm really disappointed because I talked myself into Green. He's a Boras client though, so I can't hold it against the O's if they don't want to deal with that.

Having said that, HS pitching was probably the best value on the board. I really don't like the idea of a HS pitcher in the top 15 unless it's a clear cut choice - like Loewen for example. The fact that no one really had Hobgood that high is disconcerting to me. What do I know about the draft though - literally nothing other than what others tell me.

Net/net - to me it was a really sucky year to have the #5 pick. It was a 2 pick draft, then a crapshoot.

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This'll make you feel better, McLovin :

On his secondary pitches: "He's got a curveball, slider and changeup. Like most high school guys, he doesn't use his changeup enough, that's something that will have to be developed. But he's got quality to all of them. I would never take a guy at number five that was a big project or anything. This guy knows what he is doing, he'll be fine. He's going to really do well vs. wooden bats."
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Your post didn't come off that way, it was just the 4th or 5th post saying things about writing this guy off or judging him before he gets here and I wanted to respond.

Ok ok, I gotcha. I hadn't even seen those other posts. Like I said, mine wasn't meant to be negative, it was just my thoughts on the pick.

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I wonder how many people on here have actually watched Hobgood pitch a full game? Hmm... but hey, let's keep those stones flying.

"But I read on the internet that he's..." :rofl:

Let's give the kid a chance. I trust Jordan on this one more than any one on this message board to say the least.

Who isn't giving this kid a chance? Who is saying that Jordan is an idiot for making this pick? I think almost everyone is saying exactly what they should be saying:

He's a stretch at #5, but Jordan likes him so I hope he's right and whatever he sees that others don't is what he really is.

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My qualms with Hobgood are 1) he's a HS pitcher with 2 pitches. The change doesn't count, it's not good enough yet. My criteria for HS pitchers are 2 plus and one average for the first round. He's not there. 2) He's carrying a lot of weight on that frame, and that's fine if he can pitch there, but it could lead to knee problems with all that repetition, and if it's because of lack of motivation, that worries me a bit.

I like his make-up, he's a good kid, and I hope the best for him. Just wouldn't have been my pick.

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He's carrying a lot of weight on that frame

Which also means that he probably doesn't project much in terms of filling out. Maybe that's a good thing - maybe he will be more durable as a young player, and less fragile.

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As long as signability wasn't a factor and this was truly Jordan's BPA, I guess I'll trust Jordan on this one. It certainly isn't a "sexy" pick at all but Hart said he might have the most upside of any HS pitcher.

I hope the kid can stay with good conditioning and develop a solid changeup to go with that nasty curve.

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Who isn't giving this kid a chance? Who is saying that Jordan is an idiot for making this pick? I think almost everyone is saying exactly what they should be saying:

He's a stretch at #5, but Jordan likes him so I hope he's right and whatever he sees that others don't is what he really is.

One scouting report has him as a potential top of the rotation guy. What is a potential #1 or #2 worth?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...=.jsp&c_id=mlb

He has the chance to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future.
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