Is Joe Jordan Improving?

[hoosiers]

When I had the good fortune to speak with Joe Jordan a few months ago, I asked about his prior drafts with the Orioles. He believes he has a very good staff and has had good drafts. He does not hide from his record - after all, it's out there for everyone to see. Jordan did say he was a "big self evaluator" when analyzing past picks. He was big on the "process" - what factors led to how a particular player was chosen and whether, in retrospect, the "process worked". Jordan expressed confidence that the process would also lead him to "draft better in the fifth year".

So, I ask, can you tell if Joe Jordan is a better "drafter" of talent today?

Do you notice changes in the players he selects today versus 2005/6/7?

What are strengths and weaknesses?

I think he is better today, but will expound more later.

I'd also like to throw out to comments:

I am really impressed with how successful, IMO, our scouts and Jordan are in selecting pitchers in the first six rounds or so. Britton and Erbe have produced tremendous value for where they were selected, as have Berken and Zagone (6th round), and, of course, Matusz and Arrieta. Olson moved through the system on multiple BA League Top 20 lists. Beato, Bascom and Hamblet are the only disappointments and two of those guys are in Frederick. This gives me tremendous comfort in that our staff likes these pitchers so much - Hobgood, Henry, Berry, etc.

I also take comfort in that the two "pure shortstops" drafted by our organization (Blake Davis and Miclat) are true defensive shortstops. This gives me comfort regarding the Givens pick.

Hopefully, this will lead to some good discussion.

[JTrea81]

I don't think we are seeing what Jordan can do in this draft as his hands have been tied by MacPhail's budget IMO.

I think before this draft, we were seeing what Jordan can do, but MacPhail seems to really have reigned in the spending for this class and Jordan's picks have regressed as a result.

[hoosiers]

I don't think we are seeing what Jordan can do in this draft as his hands have been tied by MacPhail's budget IMO.

I think before this draft, we were seeing what Jordan can do, but MacPhail seems to really have reigned in the spending for this class and Jordan's picks have regressed as a result.

What are you going to do if we actually spend more this year than last? How many posts will you withdraw?

[AVencill]

I don't think we are seeing what Jordan can do in this draft as his hands have been tied by MacPhail's budget IMO.

I think before this draft, we were seeing what Jordan can do, but MacPhail seems to really have reigned in the spending for this class and Jordan's picks have regressed as a result.

It's been discussed elsewhere, but I wonder if reigning the spending has to do with our expanding international scouting and we're looking to throw money towards more talent in other areas such as in Asia or try to make a splash in Cuba.

[Lucky Jim]

I don't think we are seeing what Jordan can do in this draft as his hands have been tied by MacPhail's budget IMO.

I think before this draft, we were seeing what Jordan can do, but MacPhail seems to really have reigned in the spending for this class and Jordan's picks have regressed as a result.

Can you start putting the IMO at the front of your sentences? From here on out, I'm translating it as "Ignore My Opinion."

[JTrea81]

What are you going to do if we actually spend more this year than last? How many posts will you withdraw?

Gonna be tough to hit $7.3 million with what we've drafted thus far.

I don't think it hits $6 million.

He'd have to take a crazy pick in Day Three for it to come close...

I'll take my medicine if I'm wrong, and I'll be happy to do it...

[GoldGlove21]

Gonna be tough to hit $7.3 million with what we've drafted thus far.

I don't think it hits $6 million.

He'd have to take a crazy pick in Day Three for it to come close...

I'll take my medicine if I'm wrong, and I'll be happy to do it...

What if the Orioles ponied up $2.5 Million for Hobgood, $4 Million for Sano, and $2.5 Million for the remainder of the draft class? Would you call this a successful draft as Sano would likely be a first rounder if he were draft eligible?

[BaltimoreFan]

What if the Orioles ponied up $2.5 Million for Hobgood, $4 Million for Sano, and $2.5 Million for the remainder of the draft class? Would you call this a successful draft as Sano would likely be a first rounder if he were draft eligible?

Of course he would. I'm pretty sure JTrea just wants the best possible players in the system; is that too much to ask for?

The problem with your hypothetical is that Sano isn't happening.

[Arthur_Bryant]

It's been discussed elsewhere, but I wonder if reigning the spending has to do with our expanding international scouting and we're looking to throw money towards more talent in other areas such as in Asia or try to make a splash in Cuba.

Thank you.

MacPhail said that he wanted to be more active in Asia, and last winter he went out and spent significant money on Uehara.

MacPhail also said that he wanted to be more of a player in the Caribbean. The Caribbean signing period starts in about three weeks.

Under the circumstances, I don't get how anyone would assume the limits of the budget.

Not to mention that we have no idea how hard they will go after the potential overslots like Henry, Martin, and Aaron Wirsch, of whom almost nothing has been mentioned.

But yeah, obviously MacPhail's budget has been tying Jordan's hands.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Of course he would. I'm pretty sure JTrea just wants the best possibly players in the system; is that too much to ask for?

The problem with your hypothetical is that Sano isn't happening.

No, but I won't be surprised to see a serious investment in Caribbean talent for the first time.

[jerios55]

No, but I won't be surprised to see a serious investment in Caribbean talent for the first time.

Is there a place to see more info on some guys that are available?

[Frobby]

Just my opinion, but I think it's wrong to conclude that, just because the O's drafted some high picks that will sign for slot or even below slot, that means those choices were made for monetary reasons. I truly believe that Hobgood and the other high picks were chosen because that's who Jordan wanted at the time.

The Hobgood choice, I think, will define this draft. Clearly, the O's staff valued him more highly than a lot of other scouts did. If there judgment is proven correct, the critics will have to tip their hats and say, this guy Jordan really knows what he's doing. If that pick fails, he will be open to a lot of critics saying "I told you so."

I don't have an opinion as to whether Jordan has gotten better over the years. I think maybe his mission is changing slightly, because we now have a nice core of young players who are in the majors or on the cusp, and there is still a lot of pitching talent in the upper minors. Therefore, I think high school pitchers who will take 4-5 years to develop (and some will fail specatcularly) are a better investment for us today than they would have been 3 years ago. But overall, Jordan has been pretty consistent in looking for talent regardless of need or timetable, and not being afraid to take a risk.

[WebLink21]

I don't think we are seeing what Jordan can do in this draft as his hands have been tied by MacPhail's budget IMO.

I think before this draft, we were seeing what Jordan can do, but MacPhail seems to really have reigned in the spending for this class and Jordan's picks have regressed as a result.

[McLovin]

I don't know about Jordan. Since he's came on board, who has made the bigs?

Olson

Reimold

Hernandez

Wieters

Am I missing anyone?

Rowell and Beato are looking to be some pretty high profile busts, but it's still early.

Sure, it's not fair to judge him based on who's made the bigs, because it's too early and lots of guys are in the pipeline. That said, 2005 and 2006 are a pretty dissappointing at this point.

In terms of the OP - is he improving? We won't know for a long time if that's the case.

On the other hand though, look at Demacio. He had some really awful drafts. In 2000 for example, no one in the top 30 panned out. The only player to make the Show with the O's was Kurt Birkins. (Brandon Fahey didn't sign that year.)

[Stotle]

Gonna be tough to hit $7.3 million with what we've drafted thus far.

I don't think it hits $6 million.

He'd have to take a crazy pick in Day Three for it to come close...

I'll take my medicine if I'm wrong, and I'll be happy to do it...

I think a couple of the 2-10 guys could be asking for close to $1mios. A couple more could be asking for $.5mios. So I could see getting up to $6 - 7mios.

I'd prefer the budget up around $10 - 11mios given some of the supposedly signable names that fell, and personally I'd love a draft budget of around $13mios. I think the amateur draft would be a good place to spend an extra $5mios a year to try and combat the fact that we will likely be spending half of what the Yankees spend on salary each year, and about 2/3 of what Boston spends. Seeing Tampa go after Bailey and Malm back-to-back was tough to see.

Regarding Jordan's drafting, I think he is better in that you can see more clearly that he is identifying what he views as "value" without sacrificing ceiling. That's great, particularly if you have a certain budget. I think he also does a good job of identifying talent and athleticism without sacrificing baseball instinct. That's huge, as well. I thought this draft in particular was very solid and quite interesting. Because I'd seen so many of the top 200 play, I had obvious preferences, but I'm interested to see what these kids sign for and how they get started.

I also think it's important to note that you can find guys that will be good, but you also need to make sure you're hitting guys that will be good ML players. I sometimes worry that in selecting some of the kids from the JuCos and some of the injury risks that the organization doesn't quite grab enough pedigree players. I think a little more balance in that direction would be nice, but as we've said before it's his job on the line so you can't put limits on how he runs things.