Rosenthal: O's more willing to deal Baez and Sherrill

[Mashed Potatoes]

It's the reason he dug in his heels to get Sherrill. SEA didn't wanna move him, and they paid dearly for his absence. The BP is not the train wreck it was before. If you recall, the only guys DT could count on were Bradford and Walker, and that made him use them in ways differently than their intended roles.

Regardless, AM publicly said fixing the BP was a priority. Now, maybe you can debate whether he succeeded, but he clearly said that's what he was trying to do. As for the current numbers, IMO they don't fairly indicate BP quality. The BP numbers were dragged down early, when the SP's were rarely going 6 IP and by Walker's fade. With semi-decent SP and with Walker having got on his horse and ridden out of town, the BP is better than those numbers indicate.

Well now we've moved on to a semantic debate, which is rarely fun in my opinion. You said that AM fixed the bullpen, as in past tense. Of course he intends to make the bullpen better, same with the rotation, same with all of the hitters, that's what general managers do.

I agree that the bullpen is improved from what AM inherited, just that it's not fixed, yet, as indicated by the below average ERA.

Now perhaps the reason for that is poor starting pitching. I'm not so sure.

Sherrill 2.55 ERA, 3.77 FIP

JJ 3.07 ERA, 3.83 FIP

Bass 3.53 ERA, 4.98 FIP

It seems like our 3 best relievers have been quite lucky to date, you're probably not a believer in FIP though.

[RShack]

Well now we've moved on to a semantic debate, which is rarely fun in my opinion. You said that AM fixed the bullpen, as in past tense.

I was simply pointing out that AM doesn't buy the idea that you let the BP "take it's lumps" because you're not contending for a year or three, that's all. And, yes, he did repair the BP from it's dreadful state to a competent state. I never meant to imply that he had assembled the world's best BP, only that he had fixed the terribleness of it and that he is not motivated to let it become worse. That's all I really meant to say...

It seems like our 3 best relievers have been quite lucky to date, you're probably not a believer in FIP though.

I'm neither a "believer" nor an "un-believer". It's a stat, that's all.

It tells you what it tells you, which is something but not everything.

[elsid]

Sherrill 2.55 ERA, 3.77 FIP (THT shows 3.74)

JJ 3.07 ERA, 3.83 FIP (THT shows 3.62)

Bass 3.53 ERA, 4.98 FIP (THT shows 5.05)

It seems like our 3 best relievers have been quite lucky to date, you're probably not a believer in FIP though.

Are you? Would you think that JJ's ERA should be around 3.83? He has pitched that luckily? I wouldn't think he has. Actually, he hasn't pitched as well as last year, but it has not been that poor. According to THT, last year his FIP was 3.35, where as this year it is 3.62. The xFIP last year 4.49 to this years 3.92. I don't think he has been that lucky this year.

[byrdz]

By the way, anyone know what's up with Hoey? Thought he was the next big thing coming up through the reliever ranks.

Nevermind, everyone can stop their massive search for info on Hoey, found this in another thread.

6/13 – Baysox – Jim Hoey – activated from the DL

That's good news, hopefully he can return to his previous form. Another hard thrower in the mix and hopefully one that makes the Sherrill/Baez trades less painful next season.

[Mashed Potatoes]

I was simply pointing out that AM doesn't buy the idea that you let the BP "take it's lumps" because you're not contending for a year or three, that's all. And, yes, he did repair the BP from it's dreadful state to a competent state. I never meant to imply that he had assembled the world's best BP, only that he had fixed the terribleness of it and that he is not motivated to let it become worse. That's all I really meant to say...

Fair enough, I agree with that, which is exactly why semantic debates are often silly. People who are actually in agreement get into heated arguments because their definitions of words each read a bit differently.

I'm neither a "believer" nor an "un-believer". It's a stat, that's all.

It tells you what it tells you, which is something but not everything.

Yea, it's not the absolute truth, but certainly a good tool to have, and a tool which says currently our relievers have been lucky, and a regression of some sort is likely.

[Frobby]

No it doesn't. AM addressed this very point: He said he thought he had the horses to replace Bradford without hurting the team, and subsequent events proved him wrong. He said he was counting on one thing and got something else. He did not intend to have the BP suffer a hit. He expected that Bradford was replaceable from within. Sadly, nobody on the list stepped up and performed in a way that met AM's expectation, so it turned out bad. That's not about AM's intent, it's about his expectations having been proved wrong.

I remember MacPhail saying, at the time of the trade, that we had some other bullpen arms he wanted to take a look at. To me, that's a lot different from saying he expects that Bradford can be replaced without missing a beat. I'm not sure if MacPhail said later that he had thought Bradford could be replaced without hurting the team, but that isn't what he said at the time and it was foolish to believe it, if he did. In any event, it was a decision I didn't like at the time at all, and I liked it even less when I found out that we never really even got a PTBNL in exchange. However, now that it's 2009, and we have 4 RH relievers in our pen doing a good job, we're better off not having Bradford's salary. And, as it happens, Bradford had elbow surgery and has missed the whole season so far. So, losing Bradford sucked in 2008, but it has not been a problem in 2009.

[LookinUp]

I'm not sure what other people were thinking about the Bradford trade at the time, but here are the factors I personally thought AM considered:

1. He could save the O's money.

2. Bradford was old and broken down. See Trembley's pre-deadline comment.

3. Other guys could probably do as well as an old, broken down Bradford.

4. He wasn't going to be part of a future winner anyway, for sure.

McPhail was right on all four accounts, save for about a 1.5 month stretch where our bullpen blew up during a season that was lost anyway.

Baez is better than Bradford was and has only this year on his contract. He should net more, and he won't be around moving forward, so he'll certainly be dealt.

Sherrill could be around longer, is cheaper and still very effective, so it would take more to attain him, IMO. If he gets dealt (and I consider it very unlikely), it'll only happen after Baez is dealt or in a monster deal (which I also consider very unlikely).

After reading all of the back and forth in this thread, here's your winner. This post should be copied and pasted into all trade threads moving forward so we can get to the real point.

Guts, GS, and Scott all could be solid contributors to a contending O's team in the near future. So if you trade them, be sure you are getting back players who would be at least as solid contributors, at positions of greater need. Like 3B, 1B, or SS.

[RShack]

Nevermind, everyone can stop their massive search for info on Hoey, found this in another thread.

That's good news, hopefully he can return to his previous form. Another hard thrower in the mix and hopefully one that makes the Sherrill/Baez trades less painful next season.

Here's one thing I noticed about Hoey... When MASN puts up their space-hogging scoreboard thingee at the bottom of the screen, they scrunch up the picture of the game, which screws up the proportions and makes most guys look like dwarves. Except Hoey. It makes him look normal...

[RShack]

I remember MacPhail saying, at the time of the trade, that we had some other bullpen arms he wanted to take a look at. To me, that's a lot different from saying he expects that Bradford can be replaced without missing a beat.

I don't recall what he said at the time, but I believe you about it.

I was talking about what he said much later. Might have been in the off-season, I'm not sure exactly when.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Are you? Would you think that JJ's ERA should be around 3.83? He has pitched that luckily? I wouldn't think he has. Actually, he hasn't pitched as well as last year, but it has not been that poor. According to THT, last year his FIP was 3.35, where as this year it is 3.62. The xFIP last year 4.49 to this years 3.92. I don't think he has been that lucky this year.

I think that it's a very useful tool, and that it can be wrong, but I typically don't discredit it unless a specific pitcher has demonstrated an ability to consistently outperform his FIP. Perhaps that's the case with JJ, as he outpitched his FIP by a significant amount last year as well. It could be a case where FIP putting too much weight on K/BB as JJ may not be striking a lot of people out but his stuff is so filthy that hitters aren't making good contact.

I'm hesitant to say what I think simply based on the times I've watched JJ pitch because I haven't seen all of his outings. I'm withholding any firm conclusions about "Pig Pen" as Hank Scorpio likes to call him until the season's over.

[Mashed Potatoes]

I don't recall what he said at the time, but I believe you about it.

I was talking about what he said much later. Might have been in the off-season, I'm not sure exactly when.

I think we need Tony Soprano on this matter, I recall AM saying that he wanted to check out a couple of other arms but that the primary reason for the trade was to free up money to use on the draft.

[O'sWhyNot52]

Take a deep breath, hot shot... This is what you said, and it is what I was responding to:

You seem to think it doesn't matter if we let them "take a few more lumps" in the present in order to obtain benefit years down the road. I was pointing out that AM has been quite clear that having a successful BP is one of his priorities. It is something he thinks is important to have now, not just later.

Ok..breath taken "tough guy"

exactly. I stand by my point and it seems like a dozen or so posters in this thread agree too.

How else do you break a player into the bigs? Does every prospect, or non-prospect for that matter, come up from the minors directly into the role they will fill for their career and suceed 100%? All I am saying is if we want to infuse our young pitching into the majors and have them get experience and be ready to help us win ball games, whether that be this year or next, then the only way to do that is give them oppurtunities. And guess what--we are limited on starting slots--so let's make the best use out of those arms that could help in the BP.

You can work in new young arms and still have a strong BP--they are not mutually exclusive!

[Fan4Life]

Are you? Would you think that JJ's ERA should be around 3.83? He has pitched that luckily? I wouldn't think he has. Actually, he hasn't pitched as well as last year, but it has not been that poor. According to THT, last year his FIP was 3.35, where as this year it is 3.62. The xFIP last year 4.49 to this years 3.92. I don't think he has been that lucky this year.

All these stats that try to point out how lucky a players is (hitter or pitcher) are meaningless to me. I don't think you can throw a bunch of guys in a barrell that hit various marks on the FIP or BAPIP scale and try to come up with some medium range of what is considered average and compare everyone to that number and make a determination where they are... Not that you think so mind you... just expressing my opinion... that kind of relativity factor presumes a lot of things that nobody knows are true.

[TonySoprano]

I think we need Tony Soprano on this matter, I recall AM saying that he wanted to check out a couple of other arms but that the primary reason for the trade was to free up money to use on the draft.

Chad did a terrific job for us," MacPhail said. "It's no surprise he was attractive to a team that's in first place. We just felt going forward it would give us an opportunity for some others in our organization who have some upside to get a look over the rest of '08 and '09. I think we have that guy [a right-handed setup reliever] in our system, and I'm going to need to fill some other needs, so I can use the dough."

Source - Peter Schmuck, Aug 7

[Aglets]

Did MacPhail really say that he can use the "dough?" Seems a little out of character....