BA Midseason Top 25 Prospects

[Tony-OH]

Justin Smoak #4. Cue the breakdown.

Considering the fact that Jordan was going between Smoak and Matusz, it tells me that he was on the money with this pick!!!

[Icterus galbula]

What jumps out at me is the fact the Yankees supposedly have the #3 prospect in all of baseball in 19 year old catcher Jesus Montero. He's from Venezuela and putting up decent numbers at AA, but my BS meter is in the red because he's listed at 6' 4" and 225 lbs. I'd like to see some pics and video, but right now I'd wager serious money he aint 19 years old.

Thats my exact height and weight from when I was 19 years old, and I ain't no world class athlete.

[mler1019]

Yeah I have some friends that were around 6'5" 225 when they were 16 years old...again, not world class athletes

[Mackus]

Considering the fact that Jordan was going between Smoak and Matusz, it tells me that he was on the money with this pick!!!

I guess really its MacPhail's fault for not getting MLB to change the rules RE: trading picks and then trading for one in the top-10 so that Jordan could get both guys. What a maroon.

[birdman57]

Anybody else think Matusz is actually ranked a bit low?

Ditto ... Better prospect than Smoak. He should be in the top three:)

[mark_beckens]

I think Snyder should have been in the top 50, but I'm not about to look up the stats of every player on that list.

[TheOtherRipken]

What jumps out at me is the fact the Yankees supposedly have the #3 prospect in all of baseball in 19 year old catcher Jesus Montero. He's from Venezuela and putting up decent numbers at AA, but my BS meter is in the red because he's listed at 6' 4" and 225 lbs. I'd like to see some pics and video, but right now I'd wager serious money he aint 19 years old.

I personally don't think Montero should be at #3 regardless, and maybe I'm alone, but I think Matusz and Tillman should both be in better positions on the list, and Arrieta should be in the top 25.

[Stotle]

Considering the fact that Jordan was going between Smoak and Matusz, it tells me that he was on the money with this pick!!!

Well, to be fair, we're talking about selecting between one of the top bats in the draft and the top college arm. I'd hope Jordan could narrow it down to that.

I'll be MUCH more impressed with Jordan's prospecting if/when Townsend shows up in the Top 100 this winter and Hobgood in the Top 25.

[crawdad]

Takes a lot to impress you. That's a pretty high threshhold. I'd say the odds on any 3rd round pick cracking the top 100 after their first half year would be pretty close to zero. Hobgood might have an outiside chance with a really great debut but that's a tall order as well.

I'd say that guy/s who will fall in those categories were available during our selections.

[Big Mac]

Anybody else think Matusz is actually ranked a bit low?

Yes.

The only two players on that list I would take over Matusz/Tillman are Heyward and Bumgarner.

[gatoto]

Arritea's not 29th. The "Next 25" are in alphabetical order.

Actually, you can't say that definitively. There is a 4% chance that Arrieta is 29th!

[crawdad]

I guess that's a different can of worms. Sounds like you guys would have drafted differently than Jordan which is just fine. However, Stotle said he'd be impressed if Hobgood landed in the top 25 next winter. I said that was a tall order. Just checking Baseball America's top 100 from this past year, it appears to me that ONE high school pitcher coming off his first season in professional baseball made the top 100. Jarrod Parker came in at #29. The only pitcher coming off his first season to make the top 25 was Matusz at #25. As for any 3rd rounders cracking the top 100 after their first season, I didn't notice any from last year although I could be wrong. However, it looked to me like very few first rounders even made the last, particularly when you get past the first 10 picks. Whether Jordan could have or should have drafted someone better than Townsend is another question. Still, even if he had drafted someone you guys wanted, I'd guess the odds would still be pretty stacked against them breaking the top 100 after their first year.

Well, I think if you use the draft Nick and I developed as a benchmark for success for a team that actually has a budget . . . you might be setting that benchmark a little low. My basic point, and maybe Nick's is too, that players were available who were top 25 and top 100 talents at those positions. Now, I do not claim to know who these players are . . . I can give a guess, but an unbelievably great evaluator could locate these guys.

Again, I am not saying that Nick and I should be running anyone's draft. I am not saying the guy's we selected are the ones that should have been selected. To us, it is more of a fun QA/QC endeavor to do a shadow draft.

[crawdad]

Well, I think if you use the draft Nick and I developed as a benchmark for success for a team that actually has a budget . . . you might be setting that benchmark a little low. My basic point, and maybe Nick's is too, that players were available who were top 25 and top 100 talents at those positions. Now, I do not claim to know who these players are . . . I can give a guess, but an unbelievably great evaluator could locate these guys.

Again, I am not saying that Nick and I should be running anyone's draft. I am not saying the guy's we selected are the ones that should have been selected. To us, it is more of a fun QA/QC endeavor to do a shadow draft.

Looking at BA's past top 100 lists. Sometimes you see a supp or a 2nd that slips show up (i.e. Pedro Beato's 99 ranking), but they seem to be generally conservative with drafted guys.

Other lists are not as conservative as BA. It would not surprise me to see someone think high enough of a guy like Stassi, Marisnick, or Renfroe.

[crawdad]

Who do you consider a great talent evaluator?

Is it fair to say that you don't consider Joe Jordan a "great" talent evaluator?

I think Jordan is above average.

The BoSox and Rangers have a good group of guys.

Craig Shipley is more involved with the international scene, but I think he might be a good guy to watch. Bobby Crook and Ron Hopkins are also names to remember.

[Stotle]

Takes a lot to impress you. That's a pretty high threshhold. I'd say the odds on any 3rd round pick cracking the top 100 after their first half year would be pretty close to zero. Hobgood might have an outiside chance with a really great debut but that's a tall order as well.

Well, to be fair, I expect competence. If Hobgood ends up slotting around where a top HS arm would slot (taking into account relative prospects in the class, etc.), then Jordan is doing his job. By saying I'd be "impressed" (like multiple exclamation points impressed) I'd have to see Jordan either 1) selecting a talent "early" and then having that talent be ranked appropriately based on selection, or 2) selecting a talent and having that talent be ranked higher than you'd expect, based on selection.

Both Hobgood and Townsend would fit into category 1, for me. If Hobgood and Townsend were indeed a bit of an overdraft (which some in the media covering the draft have said), then I think it would speak well of Jordan to have them ranking where a top HS arm and solid corner college bat would rank. Maybe Top 25 was too high for Hobgood -- I was thinking Porcello/Kershaw (both top 25 after signing), but they are obviously special. Hoes was close to cracking top 100s last year, and he was a 3rd round Jordan pick. I think I'm more impressed with that than his ability to narrow down 1:4 in 2008 to Matusz/Smoak.

So, yeah, I guess it does take a lot to impress me. I figure if you are one of 30 people who are in charge of drafting for a Major League Baseball organization, you should be able to do so reasonably well. I'm impressed when I see someone do it incredibly well. To be honest, having Givens crack the Top 100 would have been a better example, but I thought that wasn't being fair to Jordan, since he's not so refined right now. I should have said:

Hobgood cracking the Top 50 this winter and Townsend cracking the Top 100 next winter.