Harper vs. Taillon

[Marc Spector]

Say theoretically the Orioles had the number #1 pick. Who do you take and what is your reasoning? Also, what are the odds that Harper miraculously ends up an Oriole?

[GoldGlove21]

Say theoretically the Orioles had the number #1 pick. Who do you take and what is your reasoning? Also, what are the odds that Harper miraculously ends up an Oriole?

First, the Orioles do not have the number one pick and most of us do not know enough about either guy (outside of hype) to base an educated decision, but I will play along.

The Orioles may have the number 2 overall selection. The Nationals just gave $15 Million to Strasburg who is much more of a sure thing than Harper is at this point. Do the Nationals really want to give Harper $9-$11 Million? I could see Harper falling to the Orioles so I think the Orioles have a 25% chance of landing the kid. I would go 50/50, but the Nationals have a great deal of pitching in the minors just like we do. They may decide to go the positional player route to try and find their version of Matt Wieters. I think both the Nationals and Orioles have the potentnial to get better in a short period of time due to the quality of some of their young players.

It would not shock me if Harper fell to us and I am going to throw this out, it would not shock me if we passed on him either!

[Marc Spector]

First, the Orioles do not have the number one pick and most of us do not know enough about either guy (outside of hype) to base an educated decision, but I will play along.

The Orioles may have the number 2 overall selection. The Nationals just gave $15 Million to Strasburg who is much more of a sure thing than Harper is at this point. Do the Nationals really want to give Harper $9-$11 Million? I could see Harper falling to the Orioles so I think the Orioles have a 25% chance of landing the kid. I would go 50/50, but the Nationals have a great deal of pitching in the minors just like we do. They may decide to go the positional player route to try and find their version of Matt Wieters. I think both the Nationals and Orioles have the potentnial to get better in a short period of time due to the quality of some of their young players.

It would not shock me if Harper fell to us and I am going to throw this out, it would not shock me if we passed on him either!

To quote Redd Foxx, "I'm going to have the big one!" Thanks for your thoughtful answer Gold.......Boy, do I want Bryce !!!!!

[murrayfan420]

I've said it in another thread.. but if they think Harper is the best player - they will pay him. The Nats owner is one of the richest people in baseball he doesn't have to worry about $11 million.

[QBsILLEST1]

I personally like pitching more than any thing else, so my biased opinion would lean toward pitching. My unbiased opinion is a bit closer, but I still like Taillon more. My problem with Harper is that hes been massively overhyped. He does have special power and a special arm. Ive heard questions about his swing though, some sayign tis a bit longer than expected. Now, this is no slight on Harper, he should be very good, I just have doubts on his ability to hit professional pitching. Until I see him crush better pitching, he wont be my choice. You can have all the power in the world and it doesnt mean that you can hit a ML curveball. On the flip side, Taillon keeps showing better and better things. Even in the late summer after a long season of showcases, hes still just as dominant as he was earlier in the season. He carved up Harper himself pretty bad from what I have heard.

Honestly, there isnt much not to like about Taillon, hes huge so his body will be able to take a ML workload. Stotle pointed out how good his body control is for being so big at his age which is surprising. He has a 4 pitch arsenal in which all of his pitches project to be atleast above average. He already has a plus fastball and plus curveball.

Now, once Harper begins his JUCO season and shows that he can hit advanced pitching rather than just HS pitching, my opinions may change, but at this point I dont have as much faith in Harper as I do in Taillon.

[Marc Spector]

I personally like pitching more than any thing else, so my biased opinion would lean toward pitching. My unbiased opinion is a bit closer, but I still like Taillon more. My problem with Harper is that hes been massively overhyped. He does have special power and a special arm. Ive heard questions about his swing though, some sayign tis a bit longer than expected. Now, this is no slight on Harper, he should be very good, I just have doubts on his ability to hit professional pitching. Until I see him crush better pitching, he wont be my choice. You can have all the power in the world and it doesnt mean that you can hit a ML curveball. On the flip side, Taillon keeps showing better and better things. Even in the late summer after a long season of showcases, hes still just as dominant as he was earlier in the season. He carved up Harper himself pretty bad from what I have heard.

Honestly, there isnt much not to like about Taillon, hes huge so his body will be able to take a ML workload. Stotle pointed out how good his body control is for being so big at his age which is surprising. He has a 4 pitch arsenal in which all of his pitches project to be atleast above average. He already has a plus fastball and plus curveball.

Now, once Harper begins his JUCO season and shows that he can hit advanced pitching rather than just HS pitching, my opinions may change, but at this point I dont have as much faith in Harper as I do in Taillon.

Great, informative answer QB. From the video I've seen of Harper I really believe he has monstrous natural skill and looks to be a potential great, as you can't teach that superhuman bat speed. And the great ones like Wieters are able to make the adjustments. I believe Harper will too (to big-league curve, etc...). That said, I think we win big with either and Taillon looks like another potential big-time arrow in our quiver......

[thundercleetz]

I think it is safe to say that Harper can all but lock up the top spot easier than Taillon. If Harper rakes in D1-JUCO, there is no doubt he is the #1 pick. Whereas Taillon can only continue to do well against HS batting, making him just as much a risk as any other stud HS pitcher.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think it is safe to say that Harper can all but lock up the top spot easier than Taillon. If Harper rakes in D1-JUCO, there is no doubt he is the #1 pick. Whereas Taillon can only continue to do well against HS batting, making him just as much a risk as any other stud HS pitcher.

Taillon's status has nothing to do with the opposition he's facing. It's based on observable and (somewhat) measurable skills, evaluated by people who know how those skills would play at the highest level. A 96 MPH fastball with late movement, consistently placed on outer six inches of the plate, is a winner at any level.

Some hitting skills (like bat speed and mechanics) can be observed and judged independent of competition. But a lot can't. Hitting a quality curve is one of those, and if a young hitter can't do that, he's going to encounter a low ceiling at MLB.

There are still unknowns about Taillon. Makeup and long term injury risk are probably a couple. But his full set of skills is at least as well-established as a HS hitter's.

[QBsILLEST1]

Taillon's status has nothing to do with the opposition he's facing. It's based on observable and (somewhat) measurable skills, evaluated by people who know how those skills would play at the highest level. A 96 MPH fastball with late movement, consistently placed on outer six inches of the plate, is a winner at any level.

Some hitting skills (like bat speed and mechanics) can be observed and judged independent of competition. But a lot can't. Hitting a quality curve is one of those, and if a young hitter can't do that, he's going to encounter a low ceiling at MLB.

There are still unknowns about Taillon. Makeup and long term injury risk are probably a couple. But his full set of skills is at least as well-established as a HS hitter's.

Yeah, I agree. Harper locking up the #1 overall spot isnt gonna be because hes found success against JUCO while Taillon is being dominant against HS hitters. It is pretty simple IMO, though Taillon's skill set is amazing and elite, tell me the last time you remember a 16 y/o kid with plus-plus ML power and a ML arm who happens to at this point play catcher? I sure dont, but as elite as Taillon's skill set is, you can look back and think of the Kershaw's and Beckett's to find another similar skill set. Harper is a once in a decade kind of player, it doesnt really have as much to do wuith him facing a higher level of comp. If Harper happened to be a senior and he hit well in HS, hed still be the #1 guy.