Schmuck Chimes in on O's Offseason

[DrungoHazewood]

This assumes you accept the Fangraphs valuation methodology as the gospel. I think it's safe to say that when the Mariners ponied up $65 mm over 5 years for Beltre, they thought they were getting more than a .750-.760ish OPS hitter. And his glove has been very good (which is what is driving Fangraphs' valuation) but not as good as it was when he was on the Dodgers.

That's because it appears the Mariners fell into the free agent trap. They believed that a massive step increase in performance was his new level going forward. His OPS+ prior to 2004 was 97. His OPS+ through 2004 was 108. With the Mariners it was 101. The contract is only a big disappointment to those who believed that he was going to hit .330 with 40 homers a year, when he had no track record of even approaching that prior to '04. Any kind of decent projection system would have regressed his performance to his prior numbers quite a bit.

Luckily for them his defense more-or-less made up for their irrational evaluation of his bat. Or... maybe they evaluated him correctly all along. If they thought he was really Michael Jack Schmidt () he would have been worth a lot more than $65M.

[Hank Scorpio]

It's the safe route. You've got to admit MacPhail is going to have to work some magic to get an impact bat via trade without trading any of the core players.

I don't think he can do it, as that kind of thinking simply isn't realistic. It's a lot harder to deal for star player than to try to trade a star player. He's going to have to give up some pieces that he probably would rather keep to get the kind of talent that we need via trade.

MacPhail is either going to have to spend some major cash or trade off some of our young talent. Otherwise we are just going to keep on treading water.

Well said dude, well said.

I was fine with his majesty's post right up until the end.

More dismissiveness about the progression of our own.

[Hank Scorpio]

Having young talent doesn't guarantee us anything. It's great that we are going to have that many homegrown players in the majors, it really is. But let me know when that talent starts winning games on a regular basis. It may feel different at first, but until we start climbing the standings, the frustration and disappointment are going to return as they do every year with a losing team.

I think most of us are expecting an underwhelming offseason and I'm sure MacPhail won't disappoint in that regard.

Will you please STOP with the "guarantee" crap?

[33rdst]

My guess for MacPhail's offseason is that it will involve several phases.

In the first phase I see MacPhail attempting to sign a free agent bat and pitcher. Short term solutions like Glaus, Delgado or Thome will be made offers. He'll also go after Lackey. Unfortunately, his efforts for a free agent solution will be futile because both the bats and the starter will get offers from teams closer to winning, which could be just about anybody.

In phase two of the offseason MacPhail will seek to make a deal using his surplus of pitchers and outfielders. However, he will not trade any of his top pitching propects. Colorado, Florida, Texas, LAA, White Sox, Cubs and perhaps even the Yankees are among the teams that have pitching or outfield needs. This phase will prove to be his most successful in that, IMO, he will acquire a corner infielder and quality bull pen help.

In a final attempt to garner a starterr and another bat Macphail will seek to acquire a non-tender player. However, like in the past few years, players that were thought to become available will be retained by their clubs and Macphail will fall short of acquiring a quality veteran starting pitcher.

The O's will wind up with a few of the pieces they need but not all. Starting pitching will again be the major concern for the team entering next season

[JTrea81]

Schmuck reposted his article this morning so that link on the OP no longer works.

Here's the new link:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-sp.schmuck28oct28,0,7162.column

[Hank Scorpio]

Schmuck reposted his article this morning so that link on the OP no longer works.

Here's the new link:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-sp.schmuck28oct28,0,7162.column

Sly, my man.

When you use words like "guarantee" are you being serious? You know how you're taking this position of keeping your expectations low this offseason? Well, you can apply a modicum of that to other expectations, too. If you're EVER looking for any kind of guarantee in sports, your expectations are entirely too high.

[Tx Oriole]

Do you think Glaus would be a better offensive force than Bell? I am ok with whomever because our young pitchers will likely have an up and down year. That team would have the potential to win the division in 2 or 3 of the 6 divisions in the game.

I believe Glaus will be a offensive force than Bell. At least right now. I liek Bell but he still has to prove himself. IMO

[Sports Guy]

I see Glaus as potentially more than that. I see him initially as a stop gap for Bell, and then subsequently as a guy who might get 400-500 AB a season at 1B/3B/DH. Importantly, Glaus has been tremendous in his career vs. LHP (.277/.399/.558), which is where Bell has a glaring weakness and where the team has been very weak. Of course, he's a high-risk acquisition due to his injury history. But there's also the potential for high reward.

Well if Glaus signs for one year and does well here, he will be looking at a larger 2-3 year deal, which isn't a contract the Orioles likely sign him to.

So unless we get an option year to his 1 year contract, which is probably unlikely, he is likely a 1 year solution for us.

[Tx Oriole]

Will you please STOP with the "guarantee" crap?

What is wrong with that? Young talent doesn't guarantee you squat. So what Trea said is true. Every team has had or has young talent that never made it to the bigs. I don't understand what your ccomplaint is.

[Hank Scorpio]

What is wrong with that? Young talent doesn't guarantee you squat. So what Trea said is true. Every team has had or has young talent that never made it to the bigs. I don't understand what your ccomplaint is.

Read my subsequent post.

Signing 7 free agents doesn't GUARANTEE you squat, either.

[JTrea81]

Sly, my man.

When you use words like "guarantee" are you being serious? You know how you're taking this position of keeping your expectations low this offseason? Well, you can apply a modicum of that to other expectations, too. If you're EVER looking for any kind of guarantee in sports, your expectations are entirely too high.

Well I'm refering to others who seem to think our homegrown talent will all develop and reach their ceilings and we'll be able to compete with a young, cheap team. The reality is that is very unlikely to happen and for us to take the next step we are going to need a lot of outside talent to be brought in and we are going to need to trade some good young players and/or spend a lot of money to do that.

[JTrea81]

Read my subsequent post.

Signing 7 free agents doesn't GUARANTEE you squat, either.

It all depends on the quality of those FAs. The more talent you bring in, the better chance you have at winning games.

So no it doesn't guarantee you anything, but it improves your chances, more so than if you were to rely on your own talent developing IMO.

[Sports Guy]

It all depends on the quality of those FAs. The more talent you bring in, the better chance you have at winning games.

So no it doesn't guarantee you anything, but it improves your chances, more so than if you were to rely on your own talent developing IMO.

You do realize that without improved production from what we already have, that it doesn't matter who we add via FA, right?

[JTrea81]

You do realize that without improved production from what we already have, that it doesn't matter who we add via FA, right?

Yes, but our future also shouldn't hinge on Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder both developing and contributing to the ML squad for example.

We've got a core already with Jones, Wieters and Markakis etc. and a lot of young pitching talent.

So instead of trying to expand that core, it's time to support it IMO to make sure those players continue to improve and succeed.

If we keep waiting to see if we can keep adding younger talent to that core, then we may miss out on a opportunity to compete with that core of talent as it exists now. The clock is ticking on the Markakis and Roberts contracts and Jones is also a FA after 2013.

[Hank Scorpio]

The more production you get from young, cheap players, the better off you're going to be in the long run.