Dare to ask: can this team compete??

[jcroemer]

They look like a .500 team that is trying to break out of the cellar. Of course, if they were in any other division we'd be talking about how many wins over 81 they could reasonably expect.

The key to holding the team together late in the season is the 375-400 innings Millwood and Guthrie can pitch which should help keep the bullpen fresh in the second half. I expect Matusz to start pitching 6-7 innings on a regular basis this year and my hope is that Bergensen can do the same.

The lineup is better with Tejada but his transition to third will be the defensive story of the year.

I think the O's had one of the better offseasons in baseball. The topper would be to add another starter who can eat 175-200 innings this year and let Matusz/Bergesen/Tillman/Hernandez/Berken battle it out for the other two spots.

[NewMarketSean]

It all depends on the pitching. That is usually the case when asking if a team can get over .500 or winning the World Series.

[KAZ97]

Can this team compete? Why not.

If you believe this team is truly a .500 team, that is it has a 50% probability of winning a randomly selected game, then one can ask, how many wins would we expect to see over the course of 162 game season.

The easy answer is 81.

With a little playing around with sampling theory, a more accurate answer (read: one we should place more confidence in) would be somewhere between 93 and 69 wins.

Being the spring, I'll say, yes this team can compete. And we won't talk about the other side of the proverbial coin.

[Owen21]

No......not for 162 games in this division. However, the possibility is not zero percent. It's probably worth throwing a hundred bucks away in Vegas.

[srock]

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[bobmc]

If they sign Bedard I say they will likely overtake Toronto for fourth place in the division this season and perhaps by next year be a contender for 500 ball. (Albeit that is being extremely optimistic.

Could you please use English? :scratchchinhmm::rofl:

Only Lucky Jim can understand you now!

[srock]

Actually, there is a way this team can make a playoff run.

2001 A's:

Hudson, Mulder, Zito

2010 Orioles:

Bergesen, Matusz, Tillman

Isn't likely, but it could happen.

[McLovin]

Anytime anyone fancies the O's as contenders, consider this:

CC Sabathia

A.J. Burnett

Javier Vazquez

Joba Chamberlain

Andy Pettitte

and

Josh Beckett

John Lackey

Jon Lester

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tim Wakefield

[Dipper9]

I think ON PAPER we are already better than Toronto, and I saw the Rays do little to improve their club this winter, so I think there is a chance for the Birds to make third place in the division this season.

Someone mentioned Tejada's transition to third is a story for the summer. Lets say around June/July Miggy is batting to his usual good numbers, but is NOT adjusting well in the field. Do we bring up Snyder or Bell and shift Miggy to shortstop?

[Dipper9]

Anytime anyone fancies the O's as contenders, consider this:

CC Sabathia

A.J. Burnett

Javier Vazquez

Joba Chamberlain

Andy Pettitte

and

Josh Beckett

John Lackey

Jon Lester

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tim Wakefield

In a year or two, teams will be saying the same thing about this...

Matusz

Tillman

Bergeson

Arrietta

Patton/Erbe/Hobgood

[McLovin]

In a year or two, teams will be saying the same thing about this...

Matusz

Tillman

Bergeson

Arrietta

Patton/Erbe/Hobgood

Yup, and they're already fretting over

Bedard

Loewen

Penn

Liz

Olson

[Dipper9]

Yup, and they're already fretting over

Bedard

Loewen

Penn

Liz

Olson

Ah yes, the old "guys failed in the past so the current crop will also suck" argument.

I get your point. These guys are not proven, and could turn out to be nothing more than the list you mention, but how about a little optimism amongst O's fans for a change?

[Satyr3206]

Anytime anyone fancies the O's as contenders, consider this:

CC Sabathia -a plus size pitcher

A.J. Burnett - injury history

Javier Vazquez - ineffective in AL East in previous tour

Joba Chamberlain

Andy Pettitte - injury and age risk

and

Josh Beckett

John Lackey - injury history the last few years

Jon Lester

Daisuke Matsuzaka - DL last year

Tim Wakefield - older than dirt

For fairness the above should be pointed out. It's not like they are throwing 5 HOF pitchers at you.

[McLovin]

Ah yes, the old "guys failed in the past so the current crop will also suck" argument.

I get your point. These guys are not proven, and could turn out to be nothing more than the list you mention, but how about a little optimism amongst O's fans for a change?

Hey, I'm an optimist. I'm a realist too. The question is 'can this team compete'. Is it okay with you, Dipper, if I answer? Would that be OK? Oh, that's right, I don't need your permission. Duh. So my answer is 'no', this team can't complete.

[Dipper9]

Hey, I'm an optimist. I'm a realist too. The question is 'can this team compete'. Is it okay with you, Dipper, if I answer? Would that be OK? Oh, that's right, I don't need your permission. Duh. So my answer is 'no', this team can't complete.

Sorry...I don't see where I said you couldn't answer. I could say your same quote for your answer to my post!