A disturbing trend in the FO

[Sports Guy]

Sapper, i agree on most players and have always wanted to see us totally rebuild.

But you don't rebuild by trading young, cheap top players...Trading BRob would have been a huge mistake unless you got some ridiculous package. Once he established himself as arguably the best all around second baseman last year, making very little money, then he became pretty close to untouchable.

I don't think anyone thought he was as good as he was last year but he can still be the best.

I am not saying he is untouchable but someone has to come to the table with a great offer for him.

However, you are basically correct in saying that they need to trade guys one year early instead of late...Rodrigo, Mora and Javy should have never gotten to ST in an Orioles uniform IMO.

Ryan should have been gone last July.

Tejada can still be dealt as his value is still very high.

[Sapper]

I'm not sure I agree with this. Sure BRob isn't going to jack 20 homers every year, but he's a great 2B, defensively and offensively, and a great lead off man. He came up through the system, so he could give us a slight home city discount come contract time. Bedard has showed this June and so far in July that that he can produce at the level he did in May. I think you gotta keep Bedard and Roberts. I may be over estimating their potential slightly, but they're going to be above average producers in the league for the next 5-7 years. Bedard is the only question mark, because he fell apart 2nd half of last year after he came back from the injury, but his new change up gives me confidence in him.

I think you'd have to get good value back to trade either Roberts or Bedard. But I wouldn't make either untouchable. They still have question marks over their heads.

[Cokeman]

I think you'd have to get good value back to trade either Roberts or Bedard. But I wouldn't make either untouchable. They still have question marks over their heads.

I understand the question mark over Bedard's head, but what question mark are you seeing over Roberts' head?

[utvolzac]

This theme is starting to get REALLY old for me: Holding onto players too long instead of trading for valuable young players.

Guys I SURELY would have traded a long time ago when their value was high:

Mora

Lopez

Lopez

Ryan

Tejada

others I may have traded last year while their value was high (and if you can search that far back here, you'll see I suggested trading these guys last year):

Roberts

Bedard

This team will never get better unless we start taking advantage of other teams' farm systems in addition to our own. Let them get Glenn Davis'ed for a change.

I'm with you on the first group of names, including Miggy. Although if they trade Miggy, they have to make sure they don't screw it up.

I would definitely keep Roberts. I see no reason to trade him.

Bedard is a tough one. I'd lean toward keeping him at this point.

[osfan83]

I think you'd have to get good value back to trade either Roberts or Bedard. But I wouldn't make either untouchable. They still have question marks over their heads.

Bedard still has a question mark, but I don't think BRob does. He showed a lot coming back from that injury and playing at a high level this year. I bet his HR and double numbers rise next year after being fully recovered.

[Sapper]

I understand the question mark over Bedard's head, but what question mark are you seeing over Roberts' head?

Well, you have to understand that I'm talking about a trade that would have happened last year, not right now. At last year's trade deadline, when it was clear we were not contending, without homer glasses on, do you think Robert's potential was higher than his value?

I don't.

[Sapper]

I'm with you on the first group of names, including Miggy. Although if they trade Miggy, they have to make sure they don't screw it up.

I would definitely keep Roberts. I see no reason to trade him.

Bedard is a tough one. I'd lean toward keeping him at this point.

Again, I was talking about trading Bedard and Roberts LAST YEAR, not right now.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Based on what has been quoted in this thread (the Achillies heel of the ignore-poster plan), I can only make one point.

If we were to always trade everybody at the height of their potential, we would NEVER contend. We would constantly be going through the growing pains of rebuilding, far worse then most would claim we have over the past few years, and unlike now there would be zero chance of ever seeing any real result other then trades and more young players and growing pains.

Of course, I know that you would never be happy to see a contending Orioles team, but most of us would like to see that happen at some point. This would not be giving up on the season, or a couple seasons. This would be giving up forever.

[Sapper]

Based on what has been quoted in this thread (the Achillies heel of the ignore-poster plan), I can only make one point.

If we were to always trade everybody at the height of their potential, we would NEVER contend. We would constantly be going through the growing pains of rebuilding.....

Whoever said that? Again, BTerp misses the point.

Value > Potential, take offers

Potential > Value, keep player

Of course, if you're actually CONTENDING you might need to get a player or two to help push you over the top. But are we even close to this level now? No. We're stuck in the middle between rebuilding and competing for almost a decade now. Some people are slow learners, huh, BTerp?

[RShack]

Let's trade the whole damn team then!

That's the idea: the minute somebody has value, trade them for prospects. It is a philosophy that pretends that baseball teams are like the stock market. It is also a philosophy that pretends that the smart way to play the stock market is to have lots of churn in your account. For the most part, neither idea is sound.

[Cokeman]

Well, you have to understand that I'm talking about a trade that would have happened last year, not right now. At last year's trade deadline, when it was clear we were not contending, without homer glasses on, do you think Robert's potential was higher than his value?

I don't.

I honestly don't think you could make a valid determination on Roberts' value vs his potential at that time last year...so, I would not have even thought of dealing him.

Edit: Also, let me add that the O's had already pretty much determined that he was their 2B for the present, as well as the future by trading away Hairston and Fontenot before last season started....so, you would have had to get back a 2B in a trade, whose potential would have been a lot more iffy than Roberts.

[Sports Guy]

That's the idea: the minute somebody has value, trade them for prospects. It is a philosophy that pretends that baseball teams are like the stock market. It is also a philosophy that pretends that the smart way to play the stock market is to have lots of churn in your account. For the most part, neither idea is sound.

Sapper is absolutely correct for some of these guys...Most of us are not as delusional as you in thinking that Javy Lopez is worth 10 wins more than a replacement or that inning 83 games as opposed to 78 games is going to make a damn bit of difference to FA.

I don't agree with trading Bedard or BRob, now or then but the other guys he mentioned, he is 1000% correct on.

[Sapper]

That's the idea: the minute somebody has value, trade them for prospects. It is a philosophy that pretends that baseball teams are like the stock market. It is also a philosophy that pretends that the smart way to play the stock market is to have lots of churn in your account. For the most part, neither idea is sound.

So I guess you must be OK with everything then, right?

You're happy we held onto Javy? Extended Mora for 20 years at 8M per year? Happy that we let Ryan walk for nothing?

You're right. That's all I'm talking about: Treating baseball like the stock market. Our FO's is so smart. You can tell by their track record of success.

/sarcasm

[Mashed Potatoes]

If we were to always trade everybody at the height of their potential, we would NEVER contend. We would constantly be going through the growing pains of rebuilding, far worse then most would claim we have over the past few years, and unlike now there would be zero chance of ever seeing any real result other then trades and more young players and growing pains.

Of course, I know that you would never be happy to see a contending Orioles team, but most of us would like to see that happen at some point. This would not be giving up on the season, or a couple seasons. This would be giving up forever.

I don't think anyone advocated doing this forever, you're putting words into Sapper's mouth there. He was saying to begin a true rebuilding process this is how you jump start it.

It is an interesting debate though to consider when or when not to trade a player. What mode your team is in (contending, rebuilding, etc.), and how that affects the value vs. potential debate. Now of course hindsight's 20/20. Making these decisions in the present is not nearly as clear as Sapper made it out to be, they're not easy ones even in hindsight (e.g. Bedard).

[Sapper]

I honestly don't think you could make a valid determination on Roberts' value vs his potential at that time last year...so, I would not have even thought of dealing him.

You could be right. It was just a thought. Like I said before, you'd have to have gotten some serious value back.