Keith Law's 2010 MLB Mock Draft v1.0

[jamesenoch]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5214034&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d5214034

Although its an insider article, it shows picks #1 through #5, and he has the O's picking Taillon :

There had been some word that Orioles GM Andy MacPhail wanted to take a college player after last year's first-rounder, Matt Hobgood, took a while to sign and then showed up in less-than-perfect conditioning this spring. However, the scouting department's ardor for Taillon's electric arm seems to have won out.

[Hutman]

Top 3 are

Nats - Harper (no surprise here, he is absolutely mashing the ball right now)

Bucs- Machado

O's - Tallion

I'd be happy with this order, but still would love the Buc's to take Pomerantz so JJ can have his choice of Machado or Tallion.

[mcgraw238]

Most of the mock drafts out there are showing: (1) Harper, (2) Machado, (3) Taillon. A week to ten days ago there was some thinking the Bucs may go Taillon at #2.

[bluehens45]

Just read this on a respectable mock by AOL Fanhouse.

"Although I've heard Matt Harvey discussed in this spot, all signs still point to Taillon still landing here. Many scouts call him one of the best high school arms to emerge in recent years and the O's will not pass up a shot at him".

I remember reading somewhere about it coming from the top after hobgood to take a college player.

To me its Harper and Tallion then everything else. I feel like after those 2 you have a huge drop off.

Here is what they said about Machado to the Bucs

"Harper is a lock at No. 1, and while Machado isn't nearly to that point yet, he's becoming the heavy favorite here. They may have even begun discussing a deal, according to sources. A Scott Boras client, Machado has also pulled out of a key pre-draft event, the Florida High School Classic, something he'd clearly benefit from attending if his status wasn't already solidified. Pomeranz could push his way back into the picture here with a knockout SEC Tournament performance".

[RVAbird]

Just read this on a respectable mock by AOL Fanhouse.

"Although I've heard Matt Harvey discussed in this spot, all signs still point to Taillon still landing here. Many scouts call him one of the best high school arms to emerge in recent years and the O's will not pass up a shot at him".

I remember reading somewhere about it coming from the top after hobgood to take a college player.

To me its Harper and Tallion then everything else. I feel like after those 2 you have a huge drop off.

Here is what they said about Machado to the Bucs

"Harper is a lock at No. 1, and while Machado isn't nearly to that point yet, he's becoming the heavy favorite here. They may have even begun discussing a deal, according to sources. A Scott Boras client, Machado has also pulled out of a key pre-draft event, the Florida High School Classic, something he'd clearly benefit from attending if his status wasn't already solidified. Pomeranz could push his way back into the picture here with a knockout SEC Tournament performance".

I think the Orioles grab Taillon if he's there. If the Bucs snatch him up, I think they choose between Pomeranz, Mcguire, Cox and Colon.

To me, Whitson (more so) and Machado merit serious consideration should that be the case, but I think we're looking at Taillon or a college guy.

[bluehens45]

I agree with you. Whitson is my favorite HS pitcher beside Tallion. I think he will make a team very happy. If we go the college route pitching I for one am hoping its Sale. Unless Pomeranz is lights out the next couple of weeks. If we go college bat im hoping for Michael Choice or Christian Colon. Choice doesnt get alot of pub around here because he is one from a smaller program and two is an OF. To me if Tallion is off the board and they decide to go the college route its comes down to Pomeranz, Sale, Choice, or Colon. Choice is a guy who is really starting to grow on me. I have been high on Sale for a couple months now.

[Hutman]

If we don't get Tallion, I want us to take Macado or Cox.

[mcgraw238]

KLaw still has us taking Taillon at 1:3 in Mock version 2.0:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2010/insider/news/story?id=5235926&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fdraft2010%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d5235926

[Stotle]

No Matt Harvey in the Top 32 picks, according to Law.

[QBsILLEST1]

No Matt Harvey in the Top 32 picks, according to Law.

Hmm, interesting. Unless he has an injury, I expect him to be drafted in the 1st. There aren't many college arms with his type of stuff....

[allstar1579]

Hmm, interesting. Unless he has an injury, I expect him to be drafted in the 1st. There aren't many college arms with his type of stuff....

Inconsistency doesn't even begin to describe...

[QBsILLEST1]

Inconsistency doesn't even begin to describe...

I know he is inconsistent, but thats what you have with him, just like James Paxton. BUT, Harvey wasn't ever labeled "inconsistent" until 2009's disaster season right? I ask this because in 09 when the troubles started he was apparently mechanically throwing differently which he changed back to his old form this season and pitched much better, showing 1st round stuff again. Unless he reverted to his 09 form, he has 1st round stuff in a draft where there aren't many college arms w/ 1st round stuff. Once you get the "inconsistent" label, even if you pitch well and then have a rough outing, the label starts being unfairly thrown around again. But, I haven't even looked at what his stats are looking like right now, so I could be totally off....

[allstar1579]

I know he is inconsistent, but thats what you have with him, just like James Paxton. BUT, Harvey wasn't ever labeled "inconsistent" until 2009's disaster season right? I ask this because in 09 when the troubles started he was apparently mechanically throwing differently which he changed back to his old form this season and pitched much better, showing 1st round stuff again. Unless he reverted to his 09 form, he has 1st round stuff in a draft where there aren't many college arms w/ 1st round stuff. Once you get the "inconsistent" label, even if you pitch well and then have a rough outing, the label starts being unfairly thrown around again. But, I haven't even looked at what his stats are looking like right now, so I could be totally off....

Well he was on the radar after a great Freshman season in 2008 as the Sunday starter, but needed at least a solid 2009 to keep that up. That didn't happen, 2009 was a disaster starting on weekends, and since you only have the two years to go off of, you really can't say oh, well he was great for 2-3 years, then had one bad season. He was good this season, but not GREAT. In 90 IP he had a little over 1k per IP, but also gave up a hit about .8 hits an IP too. He had 8 WP in 90IP even though he only gave up a BB ever 3IP, so not sure about the control, maybe he's getting K's on pitches out of the zone which will NOT translate at AA and above. In 13 games he avg. just about 7IP per start, including 2 CG, but Patrick Johnson almost matched his stats.

He had a great year, a bad year and a good year, I could see him going late 1st/supplemental, or just as easily slipping into the 2nd. I said it then, and I'll say it now, I REALLY don't like that we had to give up a 2nd rd pick for Gonzo.

[Stotle]

Well he was on the radar after a great Freshman season in 2008 as the Sunday starter, but needed at least a solid 2009 to keep that up. That didn't happen, 2009 was a disaster starting on weekends, and since you only have the two years to go off of, you really can't say oh, well he was great for 2-3 years, then had one bad season. He was good this season, but not GREAT. In 90 IP he had a little over 1k per IP, but also gave up a hit about .8 hits an IP too. He had 8 WP in 90IP even though he only gave up a BB ever 3IP, so not sure about the control, maybe he's getting K's on pitches out of the zone which will NOT translate at AA and above. In 13 games he avg. just about 7IP per start, including 2 CG, but Patrick Johnson almost matched his stats.

He had a great year, a bad year and a good year, I could see him going late 1st/supplemental, or just as easily slipping into the 2nd. I said it then, and I'll say it now, I REALLY don't like that we had to give up a 2nd rd pick for Gonzo.

Stats aren't the issue with Harvey. I'd be curious to know of another NCAA starter consistently hitting 93 in the late innings and hitting 96s in the early innings that isn't a serious first round lock. His swings-and-misses aren't off plus breakers that are out of the zone. He throws fastballs by people and gets a crazy good GO/AO rate because of the life on his 2S and his change-up. I'll be shocked if he isn't taken by someone in the 1st Round.

[allstar1579]

Stats aren't the issue with Harvey. I'd be curious to know of another NCAA starter consistently hitting 93 in the late innings and hitting 96s in the early innings that isn't a serious first round lock. His swings-and-misses aren't off plus breakers that are out of the zone. He throws fastballs by people and gets a crazy good GO/AO rate because of the life on his 2S and his change-up. I'll be shocked if he isn't taken by someone in the 1st Round.

Got me, just trying to figure out what happened with him last year versus where he is this year without seeing him. Didn't realize that he was a ground ball guy either, wonder if he picked up any tips from White last year.