Who really controls the checkbook?

[Sports Guy]

The warning signs were there for Lee. He was 32 when he signed his deal, and he performed for the prime years he had left. Now he's in his subprime years.

Nobody is advocating (at least I'm not) to go acquire players that will have the majority of their contract be subprime years...

Prince Fielder for instance, will likely decline around age 32. He's 26 now. So you trade for him and you sign him to a 5-6 year extension for 25 million per season, similar to the Howard extension. So the majority of his years under contract, you are getting his best production.

Those are the kind of deals I am advocating for.

However, it is going to have to be Angelos that pushes for something like that because MacPhail has never spent that kind of money and likely won't.

Matt Holliday

[mcgraw238]

Matt Holliday

Figgins, Lackey, even Tex with the 10 year stuff.

[JTrea81]

Matt Holliday

Holliday will decline slower than Fielder IMO.

I think he has at least 4-5 prime seasons left in him, and maybe more considering he keeps himself in top condition and is a gym rat.

Thus a 7 year deal would not be considered IMO one with the majority of the years being subprime.

[JTrea81]

Figgins, Lackey, even Tex with the 10 year stuff.

I'll admit I was wrong about Figgins. I think Lackey will rebound, and pitchers IMO are slightly different than hitters. If pitchers can get past a certain age and still be effective, they can usually have a slower decline.

As for Tex, I started out at 10/200, but it when it was clear that wasn't what he was going to get by the Angels opening offer, 8/184 has been the figure I would have tried, with the abliity to go higher in $ with some option years.

[Sports Guy]

Holliday will decline slower than Fielder IMO.

I think he has at least 4-5 prime seasons left in him, and maybe more considering he keeps himself in top condition and is a gym rat.

Thus a 7 year deal would not be considered IMO one with the majority of the years being subprime.

Well, what you think is meaningless.

And when I say that, you are the one throwing out judgements about when a player will decline, like you did with Lee.

The question is, what does history tell us? History says Holliday's prime years are pretty much over. Does that mean he can't overcome it? No, of course not and your reasons behind why he can are reasonable. But that doesn't mean its likely.

And btw, Holliday's defense has been going down up until this year(not sure where it is now), so there were some warning signs for him.

[Shopay]

Even though I still support AM it is painfully obvious that he needs to change his approach going into next offseason.

Not necessarily his overall ideals but how he goes about executing them.

Agreed. I'm sure that this season has been "eye opener" to AM in terms of where he hoped the O's were and where they are actually at. Nonetheless, his basic ideas are solid, he just needs to execute them better/faster. My biggest fear is a complete abandonment of this approach (i.e., adopting the Trea approach) by the O's because the year has gone so poorly. If we are able to turn this thing around in a few years, AM may be gone because he didn't get the results fast enough. That's not uncommon in these types of situations. Even so, if this occurs, he should get some credit for at least recognizing the problem and starting us in the right direction, even though he couldn't finish the effort or wasn't the right person to do so.

[PrivateO]

Who put that tag: speculation = fact ???

:rofl:

[waroriole]

Who put that tag: speculation = fact ???

:rofl:

I did. Are you telling me it doesn't.

[JTrea81]

And btw, Holliday's defense has been going down up until this year(not sure where it is now), so there were some warning signs for him.

Holliday has the third best UZR/150 rating out of all LFers with a +20.6 rating and he's been worth 3.4 WAR this year, which is pretty much right on target for the 6.0 WAR I predicted for him.

[RShack]

And Trea hijacks another one... and this time, it's one that he started...

[TiredofLosing20]

Holliday has the third best UZR/150 rating out of all LFers with a +20.6 rating and he's been worth 3.4 WAR this year, which is pretty much right on target for the 6.0 WAR I predicted for him.

And so we would still be sitting at 23 wins only with less flexibility.

Would I have been mad if they had signed Holliday.. no Can I see the overwhelming reasons not too.. absolutely.

[SrMeowMeow]

And so we would still be sitting at 23 wins only with less flexibility.

Would I have been mad if they had signed Holliday.. no Can I see the overwhelming reasons not too.. absolutely.

JTrea just doesn't have a big picture view. He knows what he wants to see, which is fine. He just doesn't understand how things work and how complex and interconnected decisions are. Which is fine for a fan - I just wish he could cut out the broken record act.

[JTrea81]

And so we would still be sitting at 23 wins only with less flexibility.

Would I have been mad if they had signed Holliday.. no Can I see the overwhelming reasons not too.. absolutely.

But that's 5-6 more wins we'd have next year (and the year after etc.) that we wouldn't have to find so maybe we turn a 75 win team to an 80-81 win team in 2011 and an 85 win team to a 90-91 win team in 2012.

It's called being proactive. Crawford will be out of our reach, and isn't as complete a player, and Werth is older and will have more suitors than Holliday did.

There is no Holliday this offseason, just like there is no Teixeira. You have to acquire the talent when it is available, otherwise you keep passing up opportunities to improve your ballclub and ramp up your talent to a competitive level.

Getting this back on subject, it's going to be up to Angelos to force MacPhail to make sure we stop passing up on opportunities that present themselves.

[SrMeowMeow]

But that's 5-6 more wins we'd have next year (and the year after etc.) that we wouldn't have to find so maybe we turn a 75 win team to an 80-81 win team in 2011 and an 85 win team to a 90-91 win team in 2012.

It's called being proactive. Crawford will be out of our reach, and isn't as complete a player, and Werth is older and will have more suitors than Holliday did.

There is no Holliday this offseason, just like there is no Teixeira. You have to acquire the talent when it is available, otherwise you keep passing up opportunities to improve your ballclub and ramp up your talent to a competitive level.

Getting this back on subject, it's going to be up to Angelos to force MacPhail to make sure we stop passing up on opportunities that present themselves.

It is terrible - terrible - to sign a free agent with the FULL KNOWLEDGE that you will be wasting their peak years, just so that you can have their riskier, older, more injury-prone, less productive years under contract.

[Tony-OH]

It is terrible - terrible - to sign a free agent with the FULL KNOWLEDGE that you will be wasting their peak years, just so that you can have their riskier, older, more injury-prone, less productive years under contract.

But can't you trade away these guys for prospects or wait until they leave via free agency and cash in the extra draft picks? Why do nothing and wallow in losing year after year?