What does this team lack that is needed for us to contend?

[VeveJones007]

They need to find a way to pick up 6 wins between LF and 1B. I think the SP is going to be good enough, but those two positions are going to hold the whole thing back unless they are addressed.

Outside of personel needs, a 2nd wildcard and a more balanced schedule would undoubtedly improve their chances at making the playoffs.

[JeterJumps]

Patient fans

This would be a valid argument if moves that are being made in the offseason are backing up the "rebuilding" argument. But when you sign DLee and Vladi and get nothing in return in terms of MiL talent to develop in a few years -- you can't trust the FO and be patient.

The moves that are made continue to confuse me as to what our FO's plan is -- and I'm starting to think (actually, I've decided) that the FO has no clue either.

[Slappy]

We need Lester and Sabathia to go drinking one night and re-enact the final scene from Thelma and Louise.

We need Feinstein to get fed up with not making enough money and head back to Wall Street.

We need some of our competitors to experience the same kind of prospect crashing and poor management that this club has faced.

We need to get healthy and have guys play up to their projections.

[Slappy]

This would be a valid argument if moves that are being made in the offseason are backing up the "rebuilding" argument. But when you sign DLee and Vladi and get nothing in return in terms of MiL talent to develop in a few years -- you can't trust the FO and be patient.

The moves that are made continue to confuse me as to what our FO's plan is -- and I'm starting to think (actually, I've decided) that the FO has no clue either.

It's all whining unless you can answer the question: What would you have done differently?

[NattieO'sHon]

And this helps the team win how? Patience doesn't create talent. Its one thing to acknowledge a re-build, thats fine. That might limit you in what you can do and when you have to do certain things. But not doing the things that you can do now, is never acceptable.

We have played 20 games. The fact that all of you are already asking what it will take to compete is ridiculous. These are discussions to have after the season is over. What the hell could we do right now? Nothing. We play the cards we have been dealt and see what happens. This team is not going to the playoffs this year and for anyone who thought they were that is on them. This team will compete and should reach .500 and anything else is gravy.

[Phantom]

Well, let's assume that Boston and NYY are the baseline for contending in the AL East. Let's break it down position by position:

Catcher: Martin (and Cervelli/Montero), Varitek/Salty, and Wieters

Verdict: A rare win for the O's. Unless Martin keeps this up, I'll take Matt over those bags o' crap. There's a chance that Montero will be better eventually, but I'll take the young bird in hand over the Yankee in the bush (enough mixed metaphors for ya?)

Upgrade Needed: No.

First Base: Tex, A-Gone, Derek Lee

Verdict: A distant third. Even when Lee is healthy and has it going he provably can't be considered in a class with these two.

Upgrade Needed: Desperately.

Second Base: Cano, Pedroia, Roberts

Verdict: Third. It would be closer if Roberts were a bit younger, but he's going up against beasts here.

Upgrade Needed: Eventually, but Roberts can be a key cog in a contending team in any division.

Third Base: A-Rod, Youk, Reynolds

Verdict: Third again, even when looking at advanced metrics that don't care about Ks.

Upgrade Needed: Maybe. It's a bit difficult to tell what Reynolds is capable of in the AL East.

Short Stop: Jeter, Scuturo/Lowrie, Hardy/Andino

Verdict: First or close to first, actually. I have a hunch that Lowrie is going to be a beast, but if Hardy can even stay sort of healthy, I like our chances here.

Upgrade Needed: Depends on health and contract of Hardy, but at least eventually.

Left Field: Scott/Pie, Brett Gardner, Crawford

Verdict: Second place, probably. I think Gardner is showing that he vastly overachieved last season, and I would take the Scott/Pie combo over him.

Upgrade Needed: Maybe. If this is our weakest position, I don't mind not upgrading.

Center Field: Ellsbury, Granderson, Jones

Verdict: Tied for second maybe? Granderson is clearly the cream of the crop here, but I'm not sure if I would take Ellsbury over Jones.

Upgrade Needed: Probably not. If Jones can progress into a 3 WAR player (he was a 2.4 last season), I see no issue with that.

Right Field: Markakis, Swisher, JD Drew

Verdict: I was going to say Nick runs away with this one, but the stats don't really back this up. Three way tie, perhaps.

Upgrade Needed: Probably not. Even if Nick never goes back to his 6 win days, I'd expect him to be a 3-4 WAR player most seasons.

DH: Vlad, Ortiz, Posada

Verdict: Second, I'm thinking. Ortiz was even better than Vlad last year, though none of these options are great.

Upgrade Needed: Tough to say. Vlad will not be around for long, I'm assuming, but this depends on what you think is the best approach to DH.

Starting Pitching:

Yanks: CC, Hughes, AJ, Nova, Colon

Sox: Lester, Lackey, Bucholtz, Beckett, Dice-K

O'S: Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton

Verdict: I'd take the Sox over ours, but probably our young guys over the Yanks going forward.

Upgrade Needed: Probably. While the Yankees are having a down year in their rotation, no one expects it to stay that way for long. Young pitching is a great way to topple giants, but we'll either need someone to develop into an ace, or buy one.

Relief Pitching: Probably not worth doing a comparison. Our bullpen is fairly bad, and would probably need at least a small upgrade to contend.

[JeterJumps]

It's all whining unless you can answer the question: What would you have done differently?

In regards to the DLee and Vladi signing? Or the whole rebuilding process?

If just with those 2 signings -- I would have known that 1B and DH were my pickups going into the process and found the best option for each position (even if it cost money - yet not ridiculous amounts like AGonz). I know this is what the FO did, but instead it seemed they didn't go as agressive as they could have with their 1st choices and settled for Lee and Vlad who didn't want to come here but had to as last resort (who were on the market so late because they ARE a last resort).

I know there's the argument that players don't want to come here to play -- but if you offer the money they will come... and although many disagree -- the only thing left to do is spend the extra money to get a player that will actually make a difference.

sorry, just a frustrated fan right now.

[osfan83]

Well...if we win 73 games this year...what we will need to do is tear it down and rebuild, at least offesnively. Trade Nick/Adam/Luke/Reynolds/Guts..don't sign Lee/Vlad. Go into the off season with Matt-C and Roberts (wont get much for him in a trade) at 2b, Hardy at SS. Hope you get a good haul of AA talent for the 5 you deal...and hope 2015/2016 is your year.

[SammyBirdland]

Patient fans

Things that happened in 1997, our last winning season:

January 20 – U.S. President Bill Clinton is inaugurated for his second term.

March 22 - The Comet Hale-Bopp makes its closest approach to Earth (remember the Heaven's Gate cult?)

May 11 – IBM's Deep Blue defeats Garry Kasparov in the last game of the rematch, the first time a computer beats a chess World champion in a match.

June 2 – In Denver, Colorado, Timothy McVeigh is convicted on 15 counts of murder and conspiracy for his role in the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing.

August 6 - Microsoft buys a $150 million share of financially troubled Apple Computer.

September 6 - The funeral of Diana, Princess of Wales takes place at Westminster Abbey, watched by over 2 billion people worldwide.

December 19 - James Cameron's Titanic, the highest-grossing film of all time until his other film Avatar, premieres in the US.

June 21, 1997 - This girl was born:

<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/CD2LRROpph0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[JeterJumps]

^^^^^ This.

[Dipper9]

Patient fans

Seriously? We have had losing seasons for 13 straight years, we still live and die with this team each and every night, and we aren't patient? Okay then!

[Singleton]

In order to know what we need, we need to know what we have. We have a bit more information than we had 20 games ago -- but not much. What we learn will tell us what we need to do in the offseason. This is obvious though we rarely do it.

I'm hoping that by the end of the season we have a pretty good idea how good (or not so good) Matusz, Britton, Tillman, Arrieta, and Bergeson are. This is a big reason why I'm generally against sending any of them to the minors even when they have a poor outing.

If they can stay healthy and we give them the chance to pitch, it should go a long way toward telling us what we need next year.

As for the hitters, I think i know what we have in A. Jones, Nick, Luke and Brob. That's it. I hope we learn this year what Weiters can become. Maybe I've seen it but I'm not willing to accept it. We should learn about Reynolds -- as an AL player.

Assuming we don't contend, I hope we give Pie, Reimold and maybe even Andino a shot at more playing time so we can see if they can be productive MLB starters.

The only minor league players that could realistically be ready to start in 20122 are Reimold, Bell and maybe Snyder.

This tells me we're going to need to acquire some more bats.

Funny enough -- we were in the same position this offseason. We went for 1 year rentals and crossed our fingers that they could produce and things would break our way and at the very least we'd finally jump the .500 line.

20 games in the gamble doesn't look like it is going to work. Perhaps we missed some other opportunities. Of course, one 5 game winning streak and we'll all be back to thumping our chests and talking about the playoffs.

[Sports Guy]

You can disagree, but you have to show some kind of argument that they are far away. The fact that they are 8-12 in their first 20 games of '11 doesn't qualify. The fact that the entire lineup is hitting far below their expected levels, doesn't qualify.

I have no idea why you are even bringing up 2011. 2011 has nothing to do with this. Lee and Vlad struggling right now has nothing to do with long term contention because they won't be here for it, if it happens. I don't care what their record is right now..its meaningless to this discussion. If they were 15-5 right now, I would feel the exact same way. I predicted them to be around 82 wins this year coming into the season and felt the same way then as I do now about our long term hopes of contention.

I'm in full agreement that the young pitching does not have any more upside than Toronto, or TB. I don't think it has any less upside though.

This is debateable, especially when you consider that the upside is being reached already in TB and that they have a legit ace. Romero has also established himself more than any of our starters . But yes, overall, its close.

With the revenue they have, NY and Boston are always going to have capable players. As they move out aging players, I'm sure they will fill any holes that develop with younger and also capable replacements.

Still, with NY still featuring 35 year old Arod (yes, I know he has been awesome so far), 36 year old Jeter, and Posada in their lineup... they could decline at anytime. Of course Montero will either get them a new starter to aid their rotation, or ultimately replace Posada at DH with Martin staying on as Catcher. I do think Hughes will rebound, and be effective for them again. Just think when you currently look at a staff featuring Colon, Nova, and Garcia; there is not a lot of reason to overly fear them.

But it doesn't matter what they currently have..Its what they will obtain in the future and they will get better starters. For now, they still have enough to win and they have a system good enough to go out and add a top flight starter, like King Felix..

Same thing with Boston... Crawford will obviously get going. Gonzalez will go from being the good player he is right now (with the shoulder issue) to being an annual MVP ish type guy. If Lowrie really comes on, that obviously really helps them. Drew is probably retiring. Ellsbury is ok. Varitek is done, Salty is not an answer. Ortiz is 35. Lackey continues to regress. As long as they have Lester, Buchholz, and Beckett leading that staff... with the offense they are going to put around them.. they will win plenty of games. Dice K showing signs of life is not a good sign for anyone this year. We will see what happens there.

Boston also has a good system and can get what they want.

We are, without question, 5th in the pecking order LONG TERM, as of now, especially when you consider the amount of picks TB and Toronto have coming up and the amount of money Toronto is pouring into the International market.

I can even get behind the idea that as of today, we are close in terms of overall talent to TB and Tor...but we will get passed very quickly in a few months and with Toronto expected to be a bigger player in free agency in the upcoming years, they could really become a big time juggernaut.

The proof is in the pudding Chris...The on field talent in Boston and NY far outweighs ours. The structure and intelligence of Tampa and Tor is way ahead of ours as well.

Where have the Orioles created an advantage over the division? What have they done that makes anyone think, they are going to be the team of the future in the division?

Right now, I would say we are 2-3 big bats, one TOR starter and 2-3 good BP arms away from contending. That's A LOT and that also assumes we get continued progression from our young players on top of adding those players.

And let's not forget that 2 of our key offensive cogs, Scott and BRob, are on the wrong side of 30 and BRob is a huge risk, as Sammy pointed out.

[waroriole]

The only positions that I feel we have legitimate long term solutions are RF and C. We have 3 legitimate long-term starters and 1 or 2 relievers. That's about it at this point.

CF is set too. Also, 3B for the next 2 years after this. 2B should be fine for a couple, and we should resign Hardy at SS.

[crowmst3k!]

Right now? 1-2 "Premium" hitters in their prime (It's coming to this, I know, but it can't be ignored...look at the Red Sox and Yankee lineups. Even the Rays have Longoria.)

1 High K-rate, hard throwing legit #1-#2 starter.

at least 1 hard throwing high K-rate reliever.

That would put the Orioles in the discussion, at least.

The Orioles currently have a lot of positives on the team, but really lack the difference makers.