Should we Blow It Up again?

[DrungoHazewood]

I am not sure that the O's are that far behind on the rebuilding. When MacPhail traded Tejada and Bedard I know we had a big discussion on whether it would take 4 or 5 years to be a contender. 2011 is 4 years. 2012 is 5 years.

I think the pitching staff has the talent to contend it just needs experience and health. On the health side there needs to be more depth.

The O's have a pretty good outfield and catcher. Hardy and Reynolds are keepers though Reynolds may have to move positions. Roberts really caused problems by hitting himself in the head. How do you predict that kind of behavior from one of the leaders of the team and a very solid guy?

So the O's need an everyday third baseman and some depth. Not everyone is going to have a good year. So the depth is a important element.

I think the O's are closer to contention that many think because when you start talking about the players their is a lot of talent of this team. The failure of the supplementary players like Vlad and Lee have hurt. Markakis 1st two months were ...what? Out of character. Roberts...Ugh.

If the talent is there blowing it up doesn't help, because health issues will always be there. I think its really a depth issue and the willingness to be patience with the current talented group.

You missed that the O's have no second baseman, no shortstop signed beyond this year, no established left fielder, a RFer whose power has disappeared, no first baseman, an injured DH/LFer in his 30s, a catcher who's more Rick Dempsey than Johnny Bench, a pitching staff that's near last in the league in most positive categories, and a player acquisiton and development system that's still no better (and probably worse) than middle of the pack in a division where the other teams are all top 10, and mostly top 5.

For the O's to be on track they have to see frankly unexpected leaps forward from multiple players in 2012, along with a whole bunch of key acquisitions between now and then.

[mweb]

I am not sure that the O's are that far behind on the rebuilding. When MacPhail traded Tejada and Bedard I know we had a big discussion on whether it would take 4 or 5 years to be a contender. 2011 is 4 years. 2012 is 5 years.

I think the pitching staff has the talent to contend it just needs experience and health. On the health side there needs to be more depth.

The O's have a pretty good outfield and catcher. Hardy and Reynolds are keepers though Reynolds may have to move positions. Roberts really caused problems by hitting himself in the head. How do you predict that kind of behavior from one of the leaders of the team and a very solid guy?

So the O's need an everyday third baseman and some depth. Not everyone is going to have a good year. So the depth is a important element.

I think the O's are closer to contention that many think because when you start talking about the players their is a lot of talent of this team. The failure of the supplementary players like Vlad and Lee have hurt. Markakis 1st two months were ...what? Out of character. Roberts...Ugh.

If the talent is there blowing it up doesn't help, because health issues will always be there. I think its really a depth issue and the willingness to be patience with the current talented group.

Most of us felt the team would be decent by last year or even the year before and good to very good by this year. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume you were in that group. That obviously hasn't happened. However, I know that the young talent as a group can make a big stride forward and we can can lucky in regards to health and the vet pieces around the young talent. Anything is possible of course.

As far as where we are compared to where we hoped to be, yes, Vlad and Lee have greatly disappointed, but as you mention Roberts and Nick are big problems too. On top of that, we expected to be getting a lot more out of this group by now: Matusz, Tillman, BB, Wieters, Pie, Bell, and some other pitchers like Patton, Erbe, Spoon, etc. There also isn't much talent coming in the next year or maybe even two.

[mweb]

I'm not ruling out trading anyone, but I think you have to keep a core to build around. I'm not up for a wholesale demolition. I have no interest in 3-4 more 60-win seasons, and I don't really care if that's theoretically more likely to build for 2015 and beyond.

And while I admit more investment in neglected areas is unlikely, that's the only way forward that'll work.

That was a glitch in the plan I'm advocating as well.

I'm also likely keeping this core around: Wieters, Reimold, Machado, Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Bundy, and Bundy as well as adding some good to very good prospects/young MLB players as well as likely having a higher pick next year. Could potentially keep Nick depending on what his value is. Then there's guys like Pie, Tillman, Bergesen, Bell, Fox, Snyder, etc that may be useful.

[Phantom]

If you squint hard enough, you can talk yourself into us contending next season or 2013. To see how that works, take a look at the wins prediction thread for 2011.

I am worried about the talent on our roster currently, but even if I weren't, I'd be panicky about the lack of minor league talent. A contending team needs depth to make up for injuries and sub-par performances. If you think what has happened to us this year is a fluke, you haven't been paying attention to what goes on in this league.

[DrungoHazewood]

I am worried about the talent on our roster currently, but even if I weren't, I'd be panicky about the lack of minor league talent. A contending team needs depth to make up for injuries and sub-par performances. If you think what has happened to us this year is a fluke, you haven't been paying attention to what goes on in this league.

I'm starting to think our biggest blind spot is not accepting the fact that 50% or more of top pitching prospects will be lost to attrition. Most of us fall into the "our guys won't be in the bad half" trap, me included. If I had to do the 2011 offseason over again I'd pass on Vlad and Lee and Gregg, replace them with random $2.75 bodies, and spend the surplus on starting pitching.

[Phantom]

I'm starting to think our biggest blind spot is not accepting the fact that 50% or more of top pitching prospects will be lost to attrition. Most of us fall into the "our guys won't be in the bad half" trap, me included. If I had to do the 2011 offseason over again I'd pass on Vlad and Lee and Gregg, replace them with random $2.75 bodies, and spend the surplus on starting pitching.

It is too easy to just count starters as sure things. Mark my words, everyone is going to be expecting huge things from our pitchers going into next year. The smart teams in the AL East tend to go into the season with 6-8 starters in their system that they are comfortable with. Heck, Boston has had a few years where they give most or all of their pitchers a few weeks on the DL, even if they are not injured.

[wildcard]

You missed that the O's have no second baseman, no shortstop signed beyond this year, no established left fielder, a RFer whose power has disappeared, no first baseman, an injured DH/LFer in his 30s, a catcher who's more Rick Dempsey than Johnny Bench, a pitching staff that's near last in the league in most positive categories, and a player acquisiton and development system that's still no better (and probably worse) than middle of the pack in a division where the other teams are all top 10, and mostly top 5.

For the O's to be on track they have to see frankly unexpected leaps forward from multiple players in 2012, along with a whole bunch of key acquisitions between now and then.

RF: Are you really questioning if Nick can be a contributor on a contending team? He has a 900 OPS potential.

SS: If MacPhail does his job and extends Hardy, that is taken care of.

C: Wieters is among the top defensive catcher and is driving in runs. That is an improvement. He is one of the top 5 catcher in the league offensively as well.

LF: I think Reimold will take care of this issue before the summer is over.

DH: Between Fox, Scott and Reynolds someone should emerge.

1B: I favor Reynolds but Lee and Mahoney are developing story lines for 2012.

2B: Roberts gets first shot. Adams may be ready by 2012. Andino/Davis are improving on defense and as a platoon may hit.

3B: Need a new one.

SP: Guthrie, Matusz, Britton and Arrieta are four solid starters that when healthy can play on a contenders. Tillman, Bergy and Atkins are developing.

RP: Gregg, Koji, Johnson, are solid. Simon and Berken did the job in June but still have more to prove. Viola, Patton and McCurry are lefties developing for 2012. Starters that don't make the rotation are long relievers. The O's need to add some depth.

This is a snap shot looking forward that will change as answers develop over the second half.

As a young developing team, they have a ways to go to meet their potential but there is talent there.

Would a Fielder help. Sure. Should the team look to improve. Sure. Do they need to blow it up. No. We need to have these players develop.

[Greg Pappas]

RF: Are you really questioning if Nick can be a contributor on a contending team? He has a 900 OPS potential.

SS: If MacPhail does his job and extends Hardy, that is taken care of.

C: Wieters is among the top defensive catcher and is driving in runs. That is an improvement. He is one of the top 5 catcher in the league offensively as well.

LF: I think Reimold will take care of this issue before the summer is over.

DH: Between Fox, Scott and Reynolds someone should emerge.

1B: I favor Reynolds but Lee and Mahoney are developing story lines for 2012.

2B: Roberts gets first shot. Adams may be ready by 2012. Andino/Davis are improving on defense and as a platoon may hit.

3B: Need a new one.

SP: Guthrie, Matusz, Britton and Arrieta are four solid starters that when healthy can play on a contenders. Tillman, Bergy and Atkins are developing.

RP: Gregg, Koji, Johnson, are solid. Simon and Berken did the job in June but still have more to prove. Viola, Patton and McCurry are lefties developing for 2012. Starters that don't make the rotation are long relievers. The O's need to add some depth.

This is a snap shot looking forward that will change as answers develop over the second half.

As a young developing team, they have a ways to go to meet their potential but there is talent there.

Would a Fielder help. Sure. Should the team look to improve. Sure. Do they need to blow it up. No. We need to have these players develop.

I appreciate your optimism, but sorely disagree with much of how you see things moving forward.

RF> Markakis-900 OPS potential? He had one year that he approached that: 2008 (897 OPS). Otherwise, his last three season have been .801-.805-.705. I think that sometimes we all want something so bad, that it feels like a strong possibility. Nick show little sign that he's a .900 OPS player. A solid .800 OPS type of player with good defense? Yes.

SS> Agreed. Hardy is very good.

CA> Agreed. Wieters should be a good backstop for us for years.

LF> Reimold represents an outside chance for a quality LF'er. By no means can he currently be viewed as an answer moving forward, although I, you, and others hold out hope that he'll come up big. He deserves to play everyday in LF now, so that we can see what we have in him. We blew what chance we had to deal Scott last year.

DH> Scott? Fox? I strongly disagree on those two, though Reynolds could be good for us there IF he is forced off of third base.

1B> Lee? Mahoney? Developing story lines? Again, absolutely no way that they can realistically be mentioned as good options moving forward. 1B is and has been a HOLE.

2B> Not much to say here. Roberts' outlook is iffy, and Adams is a weak defender, but solid offensive prospect.

Andino/Davis are improving on defense and as a platoon may hit.

Wow... I'm surprised that you believe this is an actual option.

3B> Reynolds figures to be our 3B'man moving forward. He is solid at the plate with good power, but sub-par defensively. I believe he can improve to be an acceptable defender.

SP: Guthrie, Matusz, Britton and Arrieta are four solid starters that when healthy can play on a contenders. Tillman, Bergy and Atkins are developing.

RP: Gregg, Koji, Johnson, are solid. Simon and Berken did the job in June but still have more to prove. Viola, Patton and McCurry are lefties developing for 2012. Starters that don't make the rotation are long relievers. The O's need to add some depth.

SP> Matusz may eventually regain his prior form, but for now cannot be viewed as solid moving forward. The other three? I agree with you. Tillman? No. Bergesen? No. Atkins? No. Surprised he was mentioned.

RP> Gregg is very iffy, though I agree with you that Koji and Johnson are quality guys. Koji (37) however will not be pitching for us when we are good enough to contend. Viola and Patton are very iffy prospects, but McCurry has impressed thus far this season.

[DrungoHazewood]

RF: Are you really questioning if Nick can be a contributor on a contending team? He has a 900 OPS potential.

Are you really counting on him being more than a 115-120 OPS player going forward? If so, why, other than optimism?

SS: If MacPhail does his job and extends Hardy, that is taken care of.

If.

C: Wieters is among the top defensive catcher and is driving in runs. That is an improvement. He is one of the top 5 catcher in the league offensively as well.

He's a fine catcher, sure. Not an offensive force, or even the best offensive catcher in the league, but he's ok.

LF: I think Reimold will take care of this issue before the summer is over.

That's plausible, if somewhat unlikely. He's 27 and hasn't established himself as a major leaguer, isn't a good fielder, and hasn't consistently hit for a year and a half.

DH: Between Fox, Scott and Reynolds someone should emerge.

Fox is in AAA after hitting under .200 for the past 18 months. Scott is hurt, underperforming, and is nearing the end of his pre-free agency days. Reynolds could be one solution to one of three holes.

1B: I favor Reynolds but Lee and Mahoney are developing story lines for 2012.

Lee is a longshot to be an above-average MLB first baseman in 2012, and Mahoney is a longshot to be any kind of major league player at all.

2B: Roberts gets first shot. Adams may be ready by 2012. Andino/Davis are improving on defense and as a platoon may hit.

Roberts is hurt, Adams is a poor fielder and maybe an average hitter, Andino is Andino, and Davis was a middle aged AAA utility guy playing right field two weeks ago.

3B: Need a new one.

SP: Guthrie, Matusz, Britton and Arrieta are four solid starters that when healthy can play on a contenders. Tillman, Bergy and Atkins are developing.

The top four guys have potential. Matusz is obviously hurt and nobody knows if that's long term or not. Tillman and Bergy have clearly been big disappointments. Atkins must have some kind of tools I don't see in his numbers to even be considered for this list.

RP: Gregg, Koji, Johnson, are solid. Simon and Berken did the job in June but still have more to prove. Viola, Patton and McCurry are lefties developing for 2012. Starters that don't make the rotation are long relievers. The O's need to add some depth.

Gregg is semi-adequate. Koji and JJ are good pieces for the next 18 months. The others are question marks at best.

We need to have these players develop.

Yep, but it's much less likely now than it was six months ago. Too many steps backwards and a total lack of depth have created too many more holes.

[Greg Pappas]

Are you really counting on him being more than a 115-120 OPS player going forward? If so, why, other than optimism?

If.

He's a fine catcher, sure. Not an offensive force, or even the best offensive catcher in the league, but he's ok.

That's plausible, if somewhat unlikely. He's 27 and hasn't established himself as a major leaguer, isn't a good fielder, and hasn't consistently hit for a year and a half.

Fox is in AAA after hitting under .200 for the past 18 months. Scott is hurt, underperforming, and is nearing the end of his pre-free agency days. Reynolds could be one solution to one of three holes.

Lee is a longshot to be an above-average MLB first baseman in 2012, and Mahoney is a longshot to be any kind of major league player at all.

Roberts is hurt, Adams is a poor fielder and maybe an average hitter, Andino is Andino, and Davis was a middle aged AAA utility guy playing right field two weeks ago.

The top four guys have potential. Matusz is obviously hurt and nobody knows if that's long term or not. Tillman and Bergy have clearly been big disappointments. Atkins must have some kind of tools I don't see in his numbers to even be considered for this list.

Gregg is semi-adequate. Koji and JJ are good pieces for the next 18 months. The others are question marks at best.

Yep, but it's much less likely now than it was six months ago. Too many steps backwards and a total lack of depth have created too many more holes.

We see things nearly verbatim... as our posts certainly attest.

[quidam]

I'm starting to think our biggest blind spot is not accepting the fact that 50% or more of top pitching prospects will be lost to attrition. Most of us fall into the "our guys won't be in the bad half" trap, me included. If I had to do the 2011 offseason over again I'd pass on Vlad and Lee and Gregg, replace them with random $2.75 bodies, and spend the surplus on starting pitching.

I said in another thread that the biggest priority should be getting two legitimate ML starting caliber pitchers, thus filling out the rotation.

This gives you depth in AAA in case of injuries, and avoids the Chris Jakubauskas/Russ Ortiz of the world pitching significant time.

It also creates an actual pipeline where prospects coming up make guys on the ML roster expendable, as opposed to filling in a virtual empty spot.

You look at the Rays, and 3 of their top 10 prospects came from trades from Garza and Kazmir. Imagine if we could have traded Guthrie after the '08 season where he was 29 and coming off two very solid seasons. Now he is 32 and a lot more expensive.

We need depth at both the minor and major league level. IMO, they go hand-in-hand.

[wildcard]

Are you really counting on him being more than a 115-120 OPS player going forward? If so, why, other than optimism?

If.

He's a fine catcher, sure. Not an offensive force, or even the best offensive catcher in the league, but he's ok.

That's plausible, if somewhat unlikely. He's 27 and hasn't established himself as a major leaguer, isn't a good fielder, and hasn't consistently hit for a year and a half.

Fox is in AAA after hitting under .200 for the past 18 months. Scott is hurt, underperforming, and is nearing the end of his pre-free agency days. Reynolds could be one solution to one of three holes.

Lee is a longshot to be an above-average MLB first baseman in 2012, and Mahoney is a longshot to be any kind of major league player at all.

Roberts is hurt, Adams is a poor fielder and maybe an average hitter, Andino is Andino, and Davis was a middle aged AAA utility guy playing right field two weeks ago.

The top four guys have potential. Matusz is obviously hurt and nobody knows if that's long term or not. Tillman and Bergy have clearly been big disappointments. Atkins must have some kind of tools I don't see in his numbers to even be considered for this list.

Gregg is semi-adequate. Koji and JJ are good pieces for the next 18 months. The others are question marks at best.

Yep, but it's much less likely now than it was six months ago. Too many steps backwards and a total lack of depth have created too many more holes.

Jon and Greg,

It would appear your approach is that if a player hasn't done it consistently, they are not likely to do it. I would love to have proven middle of their career players at every position and throughout the pitching staff. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen. The O's don't have the financial resources nor the players to trade to have that happen.

The approach the O's need to have is to give opportunities to young players that show talent and deserve at chance to succeed. Developing those players and then holding on to them is the only way the O's have a chance to compete.

1) Markakis: Saying that he doesn't have the potential to be a 900 OPS hitter is defeatist. Putting Hardy in front of him and Jones behind him appears to have may his bat come alive. Like putting him between Roberts and Huff did in 2008. Its what the O's need to do to have him reach his potential.

2) Reimold has more mobility now then at any time in the last two years. He shows power, and plate discipline. He deserve and I think will get a chance to nail down the LF position.

3) Patton, Viola, McCurry and Atkins are all pitchers that have shown improvement this year. Patton's move from a starter to reliever probably allows him to make the majors. Atkins numbers at AAA says he deserve a chance. Not everyone makes the jump to the majors. But having a number of players competing for spots is a good way to go.

4) 2B: It not a ideal situation but there are options. Roberts if healthy. Adams was sent down to work on this defense. He seem very commited to improve. I think we will see him again in Sept to gauge is progress. Like it or not Andino is showing improvement defensively at 2B. If you watch the games its easy to see. Davis is a surprise. The league probably catches up to him. That said, he is getting his chance and is making the best of it. Ride it for what it is worth. Maybe he continues to surprise.

5) 3B: The O's need a tight defense. Reynolds has had 4 and half years to learn 3B and he is not playing to the level the O's need at 3rd base. He may be a 1B or a DH but third in probably the biggest need on the team.

6) MacPhail traded for Hardy. I don't see him letting him go. 90% chance he signs him.

[Moose Milligan]

Heart says no, mind says yes. Every time about this year I give up on the Orioles playing any type of meaningful baseball and just watch for individual performances. A lot of names here have been brought up as trade fodder that I really like watching play...

...but at the same time...ugh. This isn't working.

...but at the same time, we can blow it up as much as we want and we won't get good results with this owner and this GM. It'll be more of the same.

[Sports Guy]

1) Markakis: Saying that he doesn't have the potential to be a 900 OPS hitter is defeatist. Putting Hardy in front of him and Jones behind him appears to have may his bat come alive. Like putting him between Roberts and Huff did in 2008. Its what the O's need to do to have him reach his potential.

And he is still just a singles hitters. You can't have a 900 OPS and be a singles hitter.

3) Patton, Viola, McCurry and Atkins are all pitchers that have shown improvement this year. Patton's move from a starter to reliever probably allows him to make the majors. Atkins numbers at AAA says he deserve a chance. Not everyone makes the jump to the majors. But having a number of players competing for spots is a good way to go.

You won't even know who these guys are in 2 years.

6) MacPhail traded for Hardy. I don't see him letting him go. 90% chance he signs him.

AM is only signing him for 2-3 years..If JJ wants more, then he isn't getting signed.

[wildcard]

And he is still just a singles hitters. You can't have a 900 OPS and be a singles hitter.

You won't even know who these guys are in 2 years.

AM is only signing him for 2-3 years..If JJ wants more, then he isn't getting signed.

Markakis has had 43 doubles or more in 4 straight years. He is hardly a singles hitter.