What phase of Andy's plan are we in now?

[Wilshade]

We had a young and aggressive assistant once. His name is Doug Melvin. Gee. I wonder what ever became of him . . . Oh . . that's right . . he is GM of the Brewers who are in contention in their division.

(Not even gonna talk about Pat Gillick.)

That all said, Andy walked straight into a big soupy mess of quicksand. The O's organization was in a shambles and had no hope of healing. He did a lot of things that needed to be done, not the least of which was getting the new spring training site in Sarasota and to have it built to proper specs. I think Melvin or Gillick would have had the same difficulties. But, they weren't even given a fighting chance.

[Meh_Orioles]

Scrat is correct.

McPhail deserves a share of the blame, as to Angelos, Buck, the Scouts, and the players.

The fact that our young players seem to be regressing or stagnating is a result of inept coaching and development. Not saying Buck can't turn it around, but he should hardly get off scott-free. Our team is below average in every single phase of the game. Our fundamentals suck. Can't blame McPhail for that.

[murrayfan420]

I hate to even open this can of worms, but I still think MacPhail is used far too often as an easy scapegoat for the lazy.

Lots and lots of things have happened to the Orioles that were in no way MacPhail's fault. He made a nice trade to get Pie, which was universally praised within the baseball community. Pie failed to develop. He made a nice trade to get Bell, which was also universally praised in the baseball community. Bell failed to develop. Wieters failed to develop offensively. Matusz lost velocity and got injured. Tillman lost velocity and failed to develop. Even if you thought Lee and Guerrero were bad acquisitions (and the majority of the board did not), no one could have rationally projected that they would both be putting up sub. 700 OPS seasons. Scott got injured. Markakis regressed from a great player to a merely solid one. Roberts has ongoing back problems and concussed himself with a bat. These are the reasons our team sucks and very few of them MacPhail had control over.

Had even half of these things turned out differently, the team would be in a very different situation and we would all be championing MacPhail because he made the trades that put us in the position to even be disappointed. Five years ago the team had no chance at all because there was absolutely no talent on the roster. Now we have loads of talent and all of it is failing to live up to expectations. The Tejada trade, the Bedard trade, the Sherrill trade, the Hardy trade, the Reynolds trade, the Pie trade, the Andino trade -- these are all good to great moves, some of which turned out better than others. He has never once made a trade where immediately you felt we had lost or that the pundits immediately came down in favor of the other party. Far more often than not, MacPhail came out ahead.

I'm not saying he's a perfect GM or even an above average one. MacPhail definitely shares a chunk of the blame. He's been totally non existent on the international signings front, keeps giving moronic deals to free agent relievers and, worst of all in my opinion, he's been tentative about choosing a path, not entirely committing to one way or the other. The latter, however, could be Angelos' influence. I'm not saying that things couldn't be better than they are - obviously they could - but to act like MacPhail has somehow driven us straight to this point is just lazy intellectual gerrymandering.

I know there are some very vocal people around the board that think MacPhail is a terrible GM because he failed to sign Teix or Holliday, despite the fact that the vast majority of the board felt the deals were too rich for the O's blood. And even if we had signed one of them, the team still wouldn't be competing right now.

Watching this board has made me understand why the country's political process is so messed up. The country has problems = the President's fault, despite a myriad of events and policy decisions made by both political parties over the course of decades that led us to this point. The Democrats blame Bush. The Republicans blame Obama. Rather than trying to think through any sort of complex gray area, just treat it like a sports franchise and root for the home team. Because it's easier, and self-righteous indignation is so much more fun than intellectual honesty.

You don't think the responsibility to develop talent rests with the GM? That, in my opinion, is the major failing of the MacPhail era. We can all bicker about crappy FA signings or non-existent international signings.. but if Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Bell, Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Pie, Bergesen and others actually developed like they were "supposed" to, it wouldn't matter.

Is that just a string of bad luck, or is it a continuation of policy throughout an organization that has been embarrassingly poor over the past 15+ years at developing talent.

[HokieOs]

I hate to even open this can of worms, but I still think MacPhail is used far too often as an easy scapegoat for the lazy.

Lots and lots of things have happened to the Orioles that were in no way MacPhail's fault. He made a nice trade to get Pie, which was universally praised within the baseball community. Pie failed to develop. He made a nice trade to get Bell, which was also universally praised in the baseball community. Bell failed to develop. Wieters failed to develop offensively. Matusz lost velocity and got injured. Tillman lost velocity and failed to develop. Even if you thought Lee and Guerrero were bad acquisitions (and the majority of the board did not), no one could have rationally projected that they would both be putting up sub. 700 OPS seasons. Scott got injured. Markakis regressed from a great player to a merely solid one. Roberts has ongoing back problems and concussed himself with a bat. These are the reasons our team sucks and very few of them MacPhail had control over.

Had even half of these things turned out differently, the team would be in a very different situation and we would all be championing MacPhail because he made the trades that put us in the position to even be disappointed. Five years ago the team had no chance at all because there was absolutely no talent on the roster. Now we have loads of talent and all of it is failing to live up to expectations. The Tejada trade, the Bedard trade, the Sherrill trade, the Hardy trade, the Reynolds trade, the Pie trade, the Andino trade -- these are all good to great moves, some of which turned out better than others. He has never once made a trade where immediately you felt we had lost or that the pundits immediately came down in favor of the other party. Far more often than not, MacPhail came out ahead.

I'm not saying he's a perfect GM or even a great one. MacPhail definitely shares a chunk of the blame. He's been totally non existent on the international signings front, keeps giving moronic deals to free agent relievers and, worst of all in my opinion, he's been tentative about choosing a path, not entirely committing to one way or the other. The latter, however, could be Angelos' influence. I'm not saying that things couldn't be better than they are - obviously they could - but to act like MacPhail has somehow driven us straight to this point is just lazy intellectual gerrymandering.

I know there are some very vocal people around the board that think MacPhail is a terrible GM because he failed to sign Teix or Holliday, despite the fact that the vast majority of the board felt the deals were too rich for the O's blood. And even if we had signed one of them, the team still wouldn't be competing right now.

Watching this board has made me understand why the country's political process is so messed up. The country has problems = the President's fault, despite a myriad of events and policy decisions made by both political parties over the course of decades that led us to this point. The Democrats blame Bush. The Republicans blame Obama. Rather than trying to think through any sort of complex gray area, just treat it like a sports franchise and root for the home team. Because it's easier, and self-righteous indignation is so much more fun than intellectual honesty.

While I agree that it's fair to say at this point that Pie hasn't developed... I think it may still be a little early for Bell and it's at least two years too early to make that call on Wieters. Wieters, even now, is about an average offensive player. Not what he was hyped up to be... but he is getting better.... slowly.

That said, I think the Orioles plans were far too based on "in an optimal world" type scenarios. We had 5 MLB level pitching prospects (Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Bergersen, Britton). In other words, we had a rotation's worth of prospects. But with nothing else already in place, you have to assume that three is the MAXIMUM you'll get out of that group in terms of legitimate starters.... more realistically, 1 or 2. The good franchises always have a cavalry ready and waiting. Some work out... most don't.

Even now, history looks to repeat itself AGAIN. We're (and by we, I mean some fans here) pinning our hopes on Machado/Schoop to become a couple of good IFs for us. But there's jack SQUAT in the pitching pipeline (what in the hell happened to "grow the arms"?). Dylan Bundy isn't even signed yet so he doesn't count. Klein may be a solid reliever. Maybe Bridwell can catch lightning in a bottle? But what else? We're pinning our hopes on just a few guys. That's not a recipe for success. Take a look at the Rays... they thought Desmond Jennings would step in and become the new CF.... turns out, he couldn't even crack the MLB lineup... but it's OK because there were other options. The Os don't seem to grasp the concept of having "multiple options". We tend to pick and choose a few guys, pin our hopes on them, hope for the best... and hope the other spots that we DO have that are strong stay that way (why in the HELL do we not have SQUAT behind Roberts for 2B?????).

[Stotle]

Scrat is correct.

McPhail deserves a share of the blame, as to Angelos, Buck, the Scouts, and the players.

The fact that our young players seem to be regressing or stagnating is a result of inept coaching and development. Not saying Buck can't turn it around, but he should hardly get off scott-free. Our team is below average in every single phase of the game. Our fundamentals suck. Can't blame McPhail for that.

If your title is President of Baseball Operations, aren't you in charge of selecting the coaches and developmental staff?

[Scrat1]

You don't think the responsibility to develop talent rests with the GM? That, in my opinion, is the major failing of the MacPhail era. We can all bicker about crappy FA signings or non-existent international signings.. but if Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Pie, Bergesen and others actually developed like they were "supposed" to, it wouldn't matter.

I think it does to a very small extent. To assign blame with something as nebulous as player development is a slippery task. Is it the player's failing? Is it the coach's failing? If it is the coaching, then is it MacPhail's fault for keeping that coach around? All of the above? The reaility is we don't know, and canning MacPhail because some players have failed to develop seems incredibly illogical to me. And your listing of all those players is a little disingenuous because Markakis didn't fail to develop. He developed just fine then regressed. There's no way MacPhail could have any hand in that. Matusz developed just fine as well; then he lost velocity and got injured. It's tenuous to suggest that MacPhail is somehow primarily to blame for the failure of the players you've listed.

Pittsburgh is starting to garner some attention, but Alvarez has totally regressed. Is that Huntington's fault? Maybe a little for rushing him, but more than likely it's Alvarez's own fault.

The reality is luck plays a huge part in baseball, as in all sports, and some GMs, such as Brian Sabean, who continues to make boneheaded move after boneheaded move, somehow still gets results. I think MacPhail is a much better GM than Sabean, but it is what it is.

[Meh_Orioles]

If your title is President of Baseball Operations, aren't you in charge of selecting the coaches and developmental staff?

Very good point.

[Scrat1]

That said, I think the Orioles plans were far too based on "in an optimal world" type scenarios. We had 5 MLB level pitching prospects (Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Bergersen, Britton). In other words, we had a rotation's worth of prospects. But with nothing else already in place, you have to assume that three is the MAXIMUM you'll get out of that group in terms of legitimate starters.... more realistically, 1 or 2. The good franchises always have a cavalry ready and waiting. Some work out... most don't.

.

That's pretty much the case with any baseball team, especially in the AL East. If your standard for our GM is to have a surefire 100% foolproof means to compete, then, yeah, he definitely has been a bad GM. But that standard is totally unreasonable. The hope is that enough of your prospects stick so that you can patch the holes with some free agents and field a decent team. The problem is that our great prospects turned out to be merely good ones and our good ones turned out to be busts.

[HokieOs]

That's pretty much the case with any baseball team, especially in the AL East. If your standard for our GM is to have a surefire 100% foolproof means to compete, then, yeah, he definitely has been a bad GM. But that standard is totally unreasonable. The hope is that enough of your prospects stick so that you can patch the holes with some free agents and field a decent team. The problem is that our great prospects turned out to be merely good ones and our good ones turned out to be busts.

But that's just it. We DON'T have guys who can patch in. We don't have other options. At best, we've signed some patchwork guys (and Hardy was indeed a good signing). I dno't think MacPhail has been worthy of an F grade..... he has done some good things. He has made good trades. But the fact is that you can't just rely on a couple great prospects. You have to have depth, you have to have prospects behind those guys. It was like we had one wave of prospects.... but there's no wave behind that wave. It's like the organization wants to do enough to keep some excitement.... but they don't commit to going all the way so that the club can compete. I understand that sometimes prospects miss. But other organizations have other guys behind each wave of great prospects so that if a couple prospects.... or even an entire wave of prospects busts, it's not complete doom.

And while I know it wasn't MacPhail's call officially... what in the hell was with us drafting a second round guy at best in the top 10 with Hobgood? You can't blow draft picks like that to compete. You just can't. Even if Jordan did fall in love with whatever it was he saw in Hobgood, MacPhail should have overruled.

[Scrat1]

But that's just it. We DON'T have guys who can patch in. We don't have other options....I understand that sometimes prospects miss. But other organizations have other guys behind each wave of great prospects so that if a couple prospects.... or even an entire wave of prospects busts, it's not complete doom.

I understand this is the point you were making. But I think you're greatly exaggerating the number of other clubs that have this sort of depth. Maybe the Rays, the Braves or to a lesser extent the Jays. Other than that, there just aren't that many. Take for example the Giants. If Bumgarner had failed to develop or blown his arm out, who would have stepped up? No one. Their next big pitching prospect is Zack Wheeler, who is a 21 year old in A-ball. And that's one guy. The O's have had multiple setbacks. Very, very few clubs can come back from those sorts of losses. There are no clubs, not even the Rays, that could absorb "an entire wave of prospects" busting. If Hellickson, Jennings and McGee all busted, they would be in serious trouble.

[Frobby]

I think Scrat has a pretty good point about 20/20 hindsight. Most posters thought he had a pretty good offseason. A lot of breaks have gone against him. That said, it just doesn't appear his approach is working.

[HokieOs]

I understand this is the point you were making. But I think you're greatly exaggerating the number of other clubs that have this sort of depth. Maybe the Rays, the Braves or to a lesser extent the Jays. Other than that, there just aren't that many. Take for example the Giants. If Bumgarner had failed to develop or blown his arm out, who would have stepped up? No one. Their next big pitching prospect is Zack Wheeler, who is a 21 year old in A-ball. And that's one guy. The O's have had multiple setbacks. Very, very few clubs can come back from those sorts of losses. There are no clubs, not even the Rays, that could absorb "an entire wave of prospects" busting. If Hellickson, Jennings and McGee all busted, they would be in serious trouble.

But the Giants have more than just Bumgarner. You don't win championships with just one pitcher. You have other great players around them. Yes, I know part of it as well was that they did catch lightning in a bottle with Huff (noone could have predicted his great year last year). Baseball is a lot of luck... and a couple of bad years in a row can be attributed to bad luck. Not 14.

And maybe I did exaggerate a little when I mentioned that a club like the Rays could absorb an entire wave of prospects crashing and burning. But it sure wouldn't put them in a 14 year losing record streak. Maybe a four year streak... maybe. But they'd have other guys behind them up and ready to go within 2 or 3 years and wouldn't be a huge deal in the long haul. Our wave never developed and there was nothing else behind them. There is very league in the organization worth getting excited about right now. Machado won't suit up in the black and orange until the beginning of 2013 at the VERY earliest. More likely, mid-year 2013 or beginning of 2014. Same for Schoop.

But we can't keep counting on just a couple of guys to carry the very long term future as we seem to do. It was like we were comfortable witha wave so we went and grabbed Hobgood and played it cheap. The wave we had isn't working and we have..... uhhh Hobgood. Darn.

[section18]

AM an easy scapegoat for the lazy? Losing season after losing season. There are few on here who are lazy with their facts and knowledge. OH has some very informed members who use facts regularly to substantiate their opinions. Do we have an employee defending AM? That's fine and nobody is saying AM is a bad guy or poor GM. Things have just not worked out for him and it's time for a change. AM said at the recent season ticket holder session at OP that he would look at things and his future after the team finishes the season. These are not his exact words but this was the general message he delivered. If things continue as they are currently and we end up in last place and probably 25-30 games out I think AM will tell PA he thinks he should step aside and leave the organization or remain in a lesser role.

[sangar]

Wasn't this billed from the get go as a five year plan?

I think a lot of what is going wrong this year is simply bad luck.

This board was highly enthusiastic at the start of the year and justifiably so. MacPhail made a lot of good moves in the offseason.

I wouldn't jump off a bridge if they let him continue.

[Flacco Machado]

If your title is President of Baseball Operations, aren't you in charge of selecting the coaches and developmental staff?

And when you hear an interview with MacPhail on 105.7 asking him if he has any involvement with the draft and he says, "No", how does that make you feel? When I heard that a few weeks ago, I was disgusted.

Andy wins no matter what. He can point to the Bedard and Tejada trades, the new complex in Sarasota, hiring Buck, trading for J.J and Reynolds, which is all well and great, but you know what, when your behind all the other teams in baseball and you want to be the best, you have got to get caught up and then go the extra mile times two. Andy doesn't have that killer instinct and never will. That killer instinct that Andrew Freidman, Billy Beane, Theo Epstein have. Never gonna happen. He is content to not get too high or too low. And for him, well, that's just fine.