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Is it hypocritical to turn on MacPhail now?

wildcard

By wildcard
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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

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This team is terrible because Matusz, Bergeson, Tillman, Britton, and to a lesser extent Arrietta have not gotten it done. I didnt see anyone complaining about these guys, other than Tillman, going into the season. Moreover, most have given up only on Tillman and maybe Bergeson.

This team could be markedly better next year if those guys get back to close to expectations.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Lee was cooked before he got a cortisone shot in his thumb to numb the pain. Remember how well Melvin Mora performed after his?

Injuries were going to catch up to him and they have.

Vlad didn't have a cortisone shot to my knowledge and he had a stellar May and June and still rebounded to post a nice September.

At the time, Lee was more of an unknown than Vlad because of his thumb surgery. Both look done now of course but Vlad on a 1 year deal wasn't a bad move for the boost it could have given the lineup and the fact that Reimold looked like he was a non-factor in AAA and Pie was at best a 4th OFer. Luke Scott was the best solution we had for LF and Vlad was arguably the best DH that had an interest in Baltimore.

There were better options than Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche for 1B however, but signing Lee to a 1 year deal was not a crippling move.

Both however were moves trying to squeeze an overachieving year out of a declining player, a MacPhail trademark.

I mean, this reads like someone who is aware of some background info and is trying to combine it with a baseball-reference page to tell a story. Vlad was terrible looking -- capital "t" terrible looking -- for the better part of last year. Anyone watching him saw a player with no bat speed, bad knees and the same aggressive approach he has always had. Lee had a hand injury and that leads to "injuries were going to catch up to him eventually"? Are these really the criterion you think evaluators should use when advising a GM on players to pursue and players to avoid?

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quidam AAA

quidam

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I mean, this reads like someone who is aware of some background info and is trying to combine it with a baseball-reference page to tell a story. Vlad was terrible looking -- capital "t" terrible looking -- for the better part of last year. Anyone watching him saw a player with no bat speed, bad knees and the same aggressive approach he has always had. Lee had a hand injury and that leads to "injuries were going to catch up to him eventually"? Are these really the criterion you think evaluators should use when advising a GM on players to pursue and players to avoid?

To act like one signing was the better then the other is trivial. They were both bad contracts.

Look at Lee's top 10 comparable players from baseball-reference. Three retired before playing at 35, and the other seven averaged a .780 ops, which is propped up by Konerko's .929 ops this year. Take out Konerko and the other six had a .756 ops.

So we have a 35 year old player, coming off surgery, switching leagues, and his most comparable peers were well below average at a similar age.

If Lee's contract wasn't bad to begin with then what happens when his PA bonuses start to accumulate?

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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To act like one signing was the better then the other is trivial. They were both bad contracts.

Look at Lee's top 10 comparable players from baseball-reference. Three retired before playing at 35, and the other seven averaged a .780 ops, which is propped up by Konerko's .929 ops this year. Take out Konerko and the other six had a .756 ops.

So we have a 35 year old player, coming off surgery, switching leagues, and his most comparable peers were well below average at a similar age.

If Lee's contract wasn't bad to begin with then what happens when his PA bonuses start to accumulate?

Well, in this pitcher friendly era we are in, a 750 OPS with good defense would have had him worth his contract.

Lee's issue was the injury in ST that held him down for a while and stopped him from having a ST...and just as he was getting into the flow of things, he strained his oblique.

I still bet he ends up having decent numbers when the season is over.

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quidam AAA

quidam

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Well, in this pitcher friendly era we are in, a 750 OPS with good defense would have had him worth his contract.

Lee's issue was the injury in ST that held him down for a while and stopped him from having a ST...and just as he was getting into the flow of things, he strained his oblique.

I still bet he ends up having decent numbers when the season is over.

No it wouldn't have.

That's sugarcoating it. Lee's issue has nothing to do with the oblique. It's the fact that at his age players performances can fall off a cliff.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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No it wouldn't have.

That's sugarcoating it. Lee's issue has nothing to do with the oblique. It's the fact that at his age players performances can fall off a cliff.

Uhh, yes it would have...His OPS+ would have been over 100...he would have been better than league average.
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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Lee' contract was not as ill advised as Vlad's. Our other options were 3 years of LaRoche, 2 years of Overbay, 4 years of Dunn at 1B for 60 M, Pena for 2/20M. I'd choose Lee for one year, over any of them, except maybe Pena, now.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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.

Lee can play defense, Guerrero can't. And as frustrating as some of Lee's recent errors have been, he has also made a lot of great plays on defense this year as well. Additionally, his 10 home runs in essentially half a season (he has played in 78 games so far) are mediocre, but considering what we had at 1st base last year (Garrett Atkins), Lee's good defense and his mediocre offense are/were much more integral to our immediate needs in 2011 than what Guerrero was bringing to the table.

Also ......... I was not necessarily against the Guerrero signing, IF we had traded Luke Scott. What I was against was having both of them on the roster in addition to Reimold and Pie. At the time (the pre-season) I felt that we should either not sign Guerrero, or sign him and trade Luke. The former was probably the better option, being that Luke can at least play an occasional game in the outfield, and Guerrero was coming at a cost of $8 Million (no big deal to teams like the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Phillies, but a fairly significant chunk of cash for a mid-market team like the Orioles).

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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I had mixed feelings about the Guerrero signing. On the one hand, it was only for one year and he is [was] a very special player who could do things no one else could, and if he had just a bit left in the tank he might have been worth it.

However, one thing that was apparently part of the Guerrero signing that was not announced: he was being signed to play every single day and bat cleanup, absolutely regardless of performance. Had they included that in the announcement, I would not have beeen as supportive of the move.

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quidam AAA

quidam

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Uhh, yes it would have...His OPS+ would have been over 100...he would have been better than league average.

Where are you getting your numbers from?

His OPS+ would have been a couple of points under 100, not over. And his defensive value would have not added enough to his WAR to be worth the 9M he is projected to make.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Where are you getting your numbers from?

His OPS+ would have been a couple of points under 100, not over. And his defensive value would have not added enough to his WAR to be worth the 9M he is projected to make.

MArkakis has a 724 OPS right now and that is good for a 102 OPS+.
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quidam AAA

quidam

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MArkakis has a 724 OPS right now and that is good for a 102 OPS+.

Misread the numbers, you are right about the OPS +.

It still would not make him worth the 9M he is projected to make, thus making it a bad contract.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Misread the numbers, you are right about the OPS +.

It still would not make him worth the 9M he is projected to make, thus making it a bad contract.

Not quite, but not too far from being respectable. In 2010 he had a 104 OPS+ and was a +5 fielder (by bb-ref) and was worth 1.5 wins. 1.5 wins is worth just shy of $7M in free agency. Losing a hypothetical $2M on a one-year deal is about as slight a loss as you can take on a contract.

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This team is terrible because Matusz, Bergeson, Tillman, Britton, and to a lesser extent Arrietta have not gotten it done. I didnt see anyone complaining about these guys, other than Tillman, going into the season. Moreover, most have given up only on Tillman and maybe Bergeson.

This team could be markedly better next year if those guys get back to close to expectations.

I dont see any winning clubs depending on unknown quantities this way. We need to sign a few CC's here and there.

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