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O's claim 2B/SS Alexi Casilla from Twins


VeveJones007

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Seems to me Casilla is a clear upgrade over Andino.

Andino: .235/.296/.323 in 1382 PA, 1.6 rWAR

Casilla: .250/.305/.334 in 1764 PA, 2.7 rWAR

Having seen Casilla a few times, my impression is that he does the "little things" much better than Andino, which is important when you are a sub-.700 OPS guy. He steals bases, he hits behind runners, he strikes out less frequently than Andino, and I think he is better defensively, too (though Andino was pretty solid defensively).

So, while this isn't an eye-popping move, it upgrades the current roster at virtually no extra cost, and makes it a little more plausible to see whether BRob can make a comeback or Flaherty can develop, with Casilla as the fallback instead of Andino.

It's a potential small upgrade. My concern is that a substantial fraction of his career value, and thus his "advantage" over someone like Andino is the fact that he graded out as a +8 to +15 (depending on source) second baseman last year. If he goes back to being the average fielder he was prior to '12 he's really no different from Andino or Quintanilla or a dozen other freely available players. I suppose there is some value in having multiple redundant players around in case of failure.

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It's a potential small upgrade. My concern is that a substantial fraction of his career value, and thus his "advantage" over someone like Andino is the fact that he graded out as a +8 to +15 (depending on source) second baseman last year. If he goes back to being the average fielder he was prior to '12 he's really no different from Andino or Quintanilla or a dozen other freely available players. I suppose there is some value in having multiple redundant players around in case of failure.

I don't think they will tender a contract to Andino now that Casilla is in the fold. I share your observation about Casilla's high defensive grade last year, but I still see him as an upgrade. He's just a bit better than Andino in all facets of the game, IMO.

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Casilla is projected to make about 1.8M in arbitration. I'd probably mark him down for 1.5 WAR over a full season, which is I guess tolerable, although not what you want starting for a contender. He's also played a lot of SS, a little 3B, and even three innings of CF in the majors, so he provides some flexibility, and I suppose some nice speed off the end of the bench.

I can imagine a future where Casilla puts up a decent 2013, but I would have liked to see a more aggressive or creative attempt to upgrade 2B, which is our biggest hole right now. There's a very good chance we get a re-enactment of that whole Luis Hernandez-led shortstop merry-go-round from a few years ago, and I don't want that happening on a good team.

That's like 3 wins better than we got out of 2b last season. I'll take it.

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It's a potential small upgrade. My concern is that a substantial fraction of his career value, and thus his "advantage" over someone like Andino is the fact that he graded out as a +8 to +15 (depending on source) second baseman last year. If he goes back to being the average fielder he was prior to '12 he's really no different from Andino or Quintanilla or a dozen other freely available players. I suppose there is some value in having multiple redundant players around in case of failure.

Orioles 2B were worth -2.5 wins last year. Even if he goes back down to being a 0-3 run defensive player and is barely above replacement level, he's still a substantial net positive.

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Despite appearing in only 106 games last season, Casilla's 21 SBs in 22 attempts wd have led the Orioles by a wide margin. It hasn't been mentioned that Casilla is also skilled at sacrificing, unlike Andino/Flaherty/Roberts, having tied for the league lead in 2008 despite playing only 98 games. Switch-hits with basically equal stats from both sides, unlike Betemit. Looks like potentially a very useful player in next year's hopefully more versatile offense.

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Orioles 2B were worth -2.5 wins last year. Even if he goes back down to being a 0-3 run defensive player and is barely above replacement level, he's still a substantial net positive.

I think it's something of a trap to just assume that a very, very bad position becomes substantially upgraded when you sign a not-quite-so-bad player. Most of the time you have a -2 WAR position it's because your no-so-bad solutions all tank and you're left giving 100 PAs to plan D. In both 2007 and 2009 Casilla left the Twins scrambling for a replacement, much like Andino last season.

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I like this move if it leads to Andino being non-tendered.

This. Never liked Andino. I don't want him here. We have three young guys I really like (Flaherty/Schoop/Kelly) and have to kick the tires on Roberts. While AC isn't much of a player he's what you want (and better than Andino) as a reserve IF, pinch runner, pinch bunter, defensive replacement. I never thought we'd add anything substantial for 2B so this feels right. It also means any/all of the young guys can play every day in the minors rather than just sitting in Baltimore six days a week.

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