O's claim 2B/SS Alexi Casilla from Twins

[section18]

I was on a Twins site recently and there were a number of fans who disliked losing him to the Orioles. His speed is outstanding and he can sacrifice with the best of them. 13 in 2008 and. 8 in 2011. Apparently the fans really liked him and the women loved him although he is married. Sort of like BROB only he's not injury prone. Would he be a better #2 hitter or #9? Being able to move runners up is important batting second and also down in the lineup.

[panick]

The more I think about it the more I think Casilla will get most of the starts if Roberts doesn't make the team. Showalter will go with Casilla's defense, basestealing ability and bunting ability over Flaherty's power. The big question is Roberts. If he makes the team, he starts everday. He's either your fulltime starter or he's out the door and starting his retirement. Brian Roberts will not be a part time player or even platoon.

Would Roberts leave on his own, or would Showalter tell him it's time to go?

I don't think either would happen, so as long as he stays healthy, I'm afraid we will be wasting a 25-man roster spot on Roberts all year.

[Frobby]

I was on a Twins site recently and there were a number of fans who disliked losing him to the Orioles. His speed is outstanding and he can sacrifice with the best of them. 13 in 2008 and. 8 in 2011. Apparently the fans really liked him and the women loved him although he is married. Sort of like BROB only he's not injury prone. Would he be a better #2 hitter or #9? Being able to move runners up is important batting second and also down in the lineup.

Casilla is nowhere close to what BRob was as a hitter. I'm just hoping he can look like the 2011 version of Andino.

[section18]

I wasn't comparing Casilla to BROB in his prime but his later years as his power declined. I could have been clearer on his hitting. Speed is really important in a lineup and we saw what McLouth was able to add when he got on base. Singles hitters who end up on second often after a SB put themelves in scoring position more often and help the hitters behind them. Sometimes they steal 3B as well and the pitchers change their approach to hitters when speed guys are on base. Hitters also see more fastballs. None of this is new to anyone on OH. Just pointing out the advantages to speed guys. He did hit .281 in 2008 and .276 in 2010 so he can hit. Better average guy than Andino and doesn't strike out as much either.

[Frobby]

I wasn't comparing Casilla to BROB in his prime but his later years as his power declined. I could have been clearer on his hitting. Speed is really important in a lineup and we saw what McLouth was able to add when he got on base. Singles hitters who end up on second often after a SB put themelves in scoring position more often and help the hitters behind them. Sometimes they steal 3B as well and the pitchers change their approach to hitters when speed guys are on base. Hitters also see more fastballs. None of this is new to anyone on OH. Just pointing out the advantages to speed guys. He did hit .281 in 2008 and .276 in 2010 so he can hit. Better average guy than Andino and doesn't strike out as much either.

I think the issue with Casilla will be how often he gets on base. He has a career OBP of .305 and it was .282 last season. But, he's been over .330 a couple of times. If he did that for us, he'd be very valuable. But you can't steal unless you're on base.

[wildcard]

I think the issue with Casilla will be how often he gets on base. He has a career OBP of .305 and it was .282 last season. But, he's been over .330 a couple of times. If he did that for us, he'd be very valuable. But you can't steal unless you're on base.

If any of BRob, Flaherty or Schoop hit better I wouldn't be surprised to see Casilla be a bench player who is used for his defense and speed.

[Frobby]

If any of BRob, Flaherty or Schoop hit better I wouldn't be surprised to see Casilla be a bench player who is used for his defense and speed.

If we see Schoop at all, it will be some time after the all star break.

BRob will get first crack at 2B. I hope he stays healthy and plays well enough to keep the job, but I'm not counting on it. Flaherty almost certainly will start the year in AAA unless BRob can't go. We're paying Casilla a nice salary and he doesn't have options, whereas Flaherty does.

[wildcard]

If we see Schoop at all, it will be some time after the all star break.

BRob will get first crack at 2B. I hope he stays healthy and plays well enough to keep the job, but I'm not counting on it. Flaherty almost certainly will start the year in AAA unless BRob can't go. We're paying Casilla a nice salary and he doesn't have options, whereas Flaherty does.

I agree but we could see Flaherty pretty early in the year if BRob injury history proves to be an omen for this coming year.

1.7M is about what a experienced bench player makes.

[Ruzious]

One player I hope gets a legit look (instead of Roberts) is Yamaico Navarro. When he was acquired, most people here focused on the fact that it took Stu Pomeranz off the 40 man roster, but he's a talented player. If he comes in focused and in shape (2 things that he's had problems with in the past), I think he can help the O's. He's got very good bat speed, and he seemed to have improved mastering the strike zone. I'd like to see Buck make him a special project.

[Tony-OH]

The more I look at Casilla's numbers the more I think there is some potential there for him to be a decent member of the lineup. Although Casilla has a career .639 OPS, he's a pretty good situational hitter, something the Orioles lacked last season. Casilla makes a productive out (Yes, I know the stat-nerds poo-poo productive outs as not being a repeatable skill, but when a guy is consistently above the league average I say that makes it worth mentioning) 45% of the time over his career (league average is 32%). As a team, the Orioles had a productive out ratio percentage of 30% with Nick Markakis (36%) having the best Orioles mark with 20 or more opportunities.

The one thing I always said about the Orioles' offense last year was that they were not good situational hitters and they failed to make adjustments. The number bear this out. Who would you think was the worse Orioles at make productive outs? Probably the first name you would think of would be Mark Reynolds. You would be absolutely correct. Reynolds was a terrible 9-for-53 (17%) which explains why he was so frustrating to watch at times. It also explains a bit why some fans get frustrated with Adam Jones who by most indications had a great year last year. Jones was just 9-for-49 (18%) in those situations, well under the league average of 32%. In fact, only Markakis and Matt Wieters (35%) were above league average among regular starters for the Orioles. Just for argument sake, Andino was at 30%, just under league average.

Now obviously there is much more to being a productive hitter than making productive outs, but it doesn't hurt if one of your weaker hitters in the lineup is able to to do the little things that help win game. Of course saying that, Casilla's career successful sacrifice bunt percentage of 56% is well below the major league average of 68% (the Orioles were at 75% last year), so he may not be the best option for little ball (he was 3-for-3 last year).

If Casilla is a plus defender at second base (his overall career numbers suggests he's about average) and he can keep his productive out ratio up while getting his OPS back to his 2010-11 seasons, he could be a solid guy at the bottom of the lineup. The question will be whether Flaherty's bat holds more value or whether Roberts can defeat the odds and come back and take his old position back? Regardless, Casilla at worse should be a solid utility guy due to his speed and situational hitting.

For me, I'm hoping Flaherty shows he can handle second base full-time and that Castillo ends up in a utility role. I'd love for Roberts to come back, but I just don't see him being productive player at 35-years old after having basically two and half years off.

[Brendan25]

I'm really excited about Caslla. I think as a FAN, we all hope that Roberts can have a solid year, but I think that Casilla could end up having a really solid year for us at 2B.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The more I look at Casilla's numbers the more I think there is some potential there for him to be a decent member of the lineup. Although Casilla has a career .639 OPS, he's a pretty good situational hitter, something the Orioles lacked last season. Casilla makes a productive out (Yes, I know the stat-nerds poo-poo productive outs as not being a repeatable skill, but when a guy is consistently above the league average I say that makes it worth mentioning) 45% of the time over his career (league average is 32%). As a team, the Orioles had a productive out ratio percentage of 30% with Nick Markakis (36%) having the best Orioles mark with 20 or more opportunities.

The one thing I always said about the Orioles' offense last year was that they were not good situational hitters and they failed to make adjustments. The number bear this out. Who would you think was the worse Orioles at make productive outs? Probably the first name you would think of would be Mark Reynolds. You would be absolutely correct. Reynolds was a terrible 9-for-53 (17%) which explains why he was so frustrating to watch at times. It also explains a bit why some fans get frustrated with Adam Jones who by most indications had a great year last year. Jones was just 9-for-49 (18%) in those situations, well under the league average of 32%. In fact, only Markakis and Matt Wieters (35%) were above league average among regular starters for the Orioles. Just for argument sake, Andino was at 30%, just under league average.

Now obviously there is much more to being a productive hitter than making productive outs, but it doesn't hurt if one of your weaker hitters in the lineup is able to to do the little things that help win game. Of course saying that, Casilla's career successful sacrifice bunt percentage of 56% is well below the major league average of 68% (the Orioles were at 75% last year), so he may not be the best option for little ball (he was 3-for-3 last year).

If Casilla is a plus defender at second base (his overall career numbers suggests he's about average) and he can keep his productive out ratio up while getting his OPS back to his 2010-11 seasons, he could be a solid guy at the bottom of the lineup. The question will be whether Flaherty's bat holds more value or whether Roberts can defeat the odds and come back and take his old position back? Regardless, Casilla at worse should be a solid utility guy due to his speed and situational hitting.

For me, I'm hoping Flaherty shows he can handle second base full-time and that Castillo ends up in a utility role. I'd love for Roberts to come back, but I just don't see him being productive player at 35-years old after having basically two and half years off.

Just curious Tony, but where are you looking up this productive outs percentage? I consider myself a "stats nerd" but am much more willing than some to accept their weaknesses or exceptions. Just speaking generally without looking at the material, ability to make productive outs seems like something that could be a repeatable for the players with elite contact abilities who can hit to all fields, who are capable of getting the ball to second base to get a runner over or lofting a ball into the outfield for a sac fly. I'd love to know, for instance, if a player like Ichiro has been successful at this throughout his career.

Casilla is a terrific contact hitter (career 87.3%), which is almost Ichiro territory. However he took a big dip last year (83.8%) and his walk rate also dropped significantly (4.9% compared to 6.9% career). As a no-power, high contact hitter, his offensive value is going to be almost entirely derivative from his ability to maintain high contact rates and BABIP while posting a respectable walk rate. He has done that in the past; he did not do that last year. In 2007 and 2009 he had some bad luck with BABIP and was absolutely miserable at the plate. We need to just hope that doesn't happen.

On the other hand, his upside is a combination of his 2011 offensive numbers and his 2012 defense and baserunning numbers, which comes out to something that's probably about a 3-win player. Expecting a 21/22 success rate on the paths is unreasonable, but getting on base more would allow him to build up more baserunning value just based on the increased opportunities.

Put me in the camp that wants Casilla starting over Flaherty until Flaherty has some time to work as an everyday player in AAA. I may prefer this option even if Roberts can't go at the start of the year. Ultimately, our best option may be to have some sort of defense-platoon, where Casilla plays when we have a groundball pitcher on the mound (Hammel, Britton, Saunders?, almost the whole pen) and Flaherty plays vs. RHP with a flyball starter (Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez).

[Say O!]

I think Buck and DD view Casilla as utility guy, and hope that Flaherty can win the primary 2B role.

He certainly gives the O's more options and as a good glove, speed guy a different look than their current team construction bench and middle infield.

[Can_of_corn]

I think Buck and DD view Casilla as utility guy, and hope that Flaherty can win the primary 2B role.

He certainly gives the O's more options and as a good glove, speed guy a different look than their current team construction bench and middle infield.

If they do then they were lying anytime they talked about the importance of infield defense.

[Tony-OH]

Just curious Tony, but where are you looking up this productive outs percentage? I consider myself a "stats nerd" but am much more willing than some to accept their weaknesses or exceptions. Just speaking generally without looking at the material, ability to make productive outs seems like something that could be a repeatable for the players with elite contact abilities who can hit to all fields, who are capable of getting the ball to second base to get a runner over or lofting a ball into the outfield for a sac fly. I'd love to know, for instance, if a player like Ichiro has been successful at this throughout his career.

Casilla is a terrific contact hitter (career 87.3%), which is almost Ichiro territory. However he took a big dip last year (83.8%) and his walk rate also dropped significantly (4.9% compared to 6.9% career). As a no-power, high contact hitter, his offensive value is going to be almost entirely derivative from his ability to maintain high contact rates and BABIP while posting a respectable walk rate. He has done that in the past; he did not do that last year. In 2007 and 2009 he had some bad luck with BABIP and was absolutely miserable at the plate. We need to just hope that doesn't happen.

On the other hand, his upside is a combination of his 2011 offensive numbers and his 2012 defense and baserunning numbers, which comes out to something that's probably about a 3-win player. Expecting a 21/22 success rate on the paths is unreasonable, but getting on base more would allow him to build up more baserunning value just based on the increased opportunities.

Put me in the camp that wants Casilla starting over Flaherty until Flaherty has some time to work as an everyday player in AAA. I may prefer this option even if Roberts can't go at the start of the year. Ultimately, our best option may be to have some sort of defense-platoon, where Casilla plays when we have a groundball pitcher on the mound (Hammel, Britton, Saunders?, almost the whole pen) and Flaherty plays vs. RHP with a flyball starter (Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez).

If you go into the "more stats" option in baseball reference you can find a bunch of interesting situational hitting and running stats.

I really don't disagree with anything you said here. It probably won't hurt for Flaherty to have to go to AAA and play second base every day, but they also may want to give him reps at third base since he could be the number one option there if Machado moves to shortstop (injury or trade of Hardy), at least in the near term. One thing that worries me about Casilla though was that he did not hit anything well last year. He fell off against fastballs as well as offspeed stuff last year. Looking at his spray charts for last year, he almost exclusively tries to go the other way on fastballs which tells me his bats slow. Having to guess due to a lack of bat speed could explains why he fell off on breaking pitches.

I really don't see anything in the numbers that tells me we should expect Casilla to be anything other than the kind of hitter he's been at the major league level the last few years. If he gets back to 2010-11 levels, he could be ok, or at least an upgrade over what Andino gave us last year, which of course doesn't take much. Flaherty of course gives us upside with the bat at least.