Orioles are one of the teams that the Twins have contacted in regards to Justin Morneau

[eb45]

If there's a seniority effect it's only because a bunch of us have had discussions like this for a decade or more, looked at the issues in great depth years ago, and have concluded that WAR is a fundamentally sound tool. We've convinced others of this with logical arguments and real examples, so people tend to side with us. Over time we've earned a bit of respect, especially compared to folks who fiercely cling to misconceptions and misunderstandings.

I just realized I've been explaining why BA is a bad stat since middle school and arguing the finer points of park factors and positional analysis since sometime in early high school. I feel old now.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Never said that at all. But why does those that don't agree with WAR, have to face being talked down to? Especially when that poster was just giving their reasoning for why they don't. I guess that poster should just bow down and follow the crowd.

No, it's "siding with seniority" to call me out for not adding to the thread, yet ignore others that do the same thing, that ironically have been here longer. If thats not the case, then I assume you didn't read any post's prior to mine, and just felt like jumping on my case?

The problem here stems from OriolesMagic79 stance that WAR is "useless" and then using completely false statements about what WAR actually is to back up his opinion for why it's useless. The crux of the argument is fine. He trust what his eyes tell him more than he trust an advanced stat. Nothing wrong with that. WAR does nothing but gives us the means to measure what someone has done in the past. Maybe you think it has flaws, maybe you think it's the bee's knee's. You absolutely need someone with "eyes" to help predict what that player might do in the future. Is his bat slowing down? Has he lost velocity? etc, etc. But to disregard it all together, when your arguments against it clearly illustrate you know nothing about it, shows some amount of ignorance imop.

[MurphDogg]

Never said that at all. But why does those that don't agree with WAR, have to face being talked down to? Especially when that poster was just giving their reasoning for why they don't. I guess that poster should just bow down and follow the crowd.

Because many of the posters that give their reasoning for why they don't agree with WAR, show a fundamental misunderstanding of what it is or what it tries to do. Nobody is saying WAR is perfect. Nobody thinks that if you take the base value and add up all the WAR for all the players on the team it will equal exactly how many wins the team will have. There is simply too much randomness in baseball. The only reasoning I have seen is either (a) based on a flawed understanding of the stat or (b) based on a belief that "baseball is played on the field, not on computers" which is a total straw-man argument.

The only reasonable reason to disagree with WAR is to think that it overvalues certain variables and undervalues others. That it has a flawed set of underlying variables. Or that there is too much randomness for it to have great merit (which is understandable to some extent), I think people would be happier if they looked at WAR as a range with confidence intervals, that a player who had a 3.0 WAR had a 95 percent chance of being worth between 2.4 and 3.6 wins for example, of course this would lead to more arguments about pocket protectors.

While it is true that traditional stats like HR, batting average, RBI are more precise, they can fluctuate wildly in a way that WAR tries to smooth out. This is where people get the mistaken idea that WAR is a predictive stat. It is based solely on past events and thus is not a predictive stat, however it tends to vary less from season to season so examining its past results has more predictive value than looking at HR, batting average and RBI.

[soxhotcorner14]

Should we stop talking about WAR and simply disregard it because some posters don't/can't/refuse to understand it? It's "siding with seniority" to put stock into a statistic that real MLB teams actually consider and value?

Just spoke with a mentor/friend who's in a FO position with a team in the west; who is in a small market and would be a prime candidate to leverage these advanced statistics. He confirmed what I just spoke about. Stats and Advanced stats are used to round out what your assessment is of a player. Not the other way around. There you have it. I think it's time to turn the page. If you want to believe in statistics like WAR, go right ahead. For the others, we will just continue partying.:2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb:

[SrMeowMeow]

Just spoke with a mentor/friend who's in a FO position with a team in the west; who is in a small market and would be a prime candidate to leverage these advanced statistics. He confirmed what I just spoke about. Stats and Advanced stats are used to round out what your assessment is of a player. Not the other way around. There you have it. I think it's time to turn the page. If you want to believe in statistics like WAR, go right ahead. For the others, we will just continue partying.:2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb:

I dunno, I just spoke to my good friend who's a general manager and he says that WAR is awesome. Seems like a stalemate so far.

[soxhotcorner14]

I dunno, I just spoke to my good friend who's a general manager and he says that WAR is awesome. Seems like a stalemate so far.

Sounds good. I hope he continues using it to his advantage. Good talk, glad we had it.

[waroriole]

I dunno, I just spoke to my good friend who's a general manager and he says that WAR is awesome. Seems like a stalemate so far.

I called Buck, he told me to leave him alone. I guess we'll never know.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Just spoke with a mentor/friend who's in a FO position with a team in the west; who is in a small market and would be a prime candidate to leverage these advanced statistics. He confirmed what I just spoke about. Stats and Advanced stats are used to round out what your assessment is of a player. Not the other way around. There you have it. I think it's time to turn the page. If you want to believe in statistics like WAR, go right ahead. For the others, we will just continue partying.:2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb:

I'm guessing your friend works for the KC Royals.

[soxhotcorner14]

I'm guessing your friend works for the KC Royals.

You are correct sir. If you need to know the name and email, phone number feel free to inbox me. Hell i'll even setup a conference call for ya. This is an open invite to the smart asses too (Waroriole, srmeowmeow). Feel free, nothing to hide.

[SrMeowMeow]

I'm guessing your friend works for the KC Royals.

Or the Unverifiable Imaginaries.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You are correct sir.

Ok, I'm not really surprised.

[Frobby]

I just spoke to the ghost of Abner Doubleday, and he says he wishes they had invented WAR back in his day.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I just spoke to the ghost of Abner Doubleday, and he says he wishes they had invented WAR back in his day.

Odd, since he didn't really invent baseball. He did have the Civil WAR though.

[SrMeowMeow]

You are correct sir. If you need to know the name and email, phone number feel free to inbox me. Hell i'll even setup a conference call for ya. This is an open invite to the smart asses too (Waroriole, srmeowmeow). Feel free, nothing to hide.

I am actually curious enough to take you up on that. A conference call would be fascinating, but I would understand (not in an internet argument way) if you didn't actually want to do that.

What level of the front office does he/she work at?

And in closing, I would just like to say that the Royals are known for two things: being relatively unfriendly to new stats/ideas, and some of the most terrible trades and contracts in baseball. So.

[luismatos4prez]

The same Royals with no division titles or playoff appearances in the last 27 years?