One scout's early take on the 2013 Orioles and the AL East

[Orange_Crush]

Jim Bowden and Casey Stern say that we have squandered our oportunity and rested on our laurels. So we don't need to debate it any longer. We are all losers again. No need to watch the games. Merry Christmas.

Are they really wrong though? They are banking on everything repeating then some. Scary recipe.

[Orange_Crush]

And without doing exact research cuz it's Friday night... All but one of EVERY single name you posted is 26 years old or less.

So? They for the most part still hadn't shown anything before 2012 which was the point.

McLouth and Gonzo are older than 26. Would guess O'Day as being atleast 30, hes been around awhile it seems.

[scOtt]

You have to be on the Orioles payroll if you believe that we can repeat last year, every year, doing the same bargain bin thing.

Whether you're for bargain bin baseball or against it, it's blatantly obvious that the approach cannot and will not yield prolonged success. Ask the Pirates and Royals. Oh, and the Orioles.

Ask the 2012 Orioles.

[Frobby]

You have to be on the Orioles payroll if you believe that we can repeat last year, every year, doing the same bargain bin thing.

Whether you're for bargain bin baseball or against it, it's blatantly obvious that the approach cannot and will not yield prolonged success. Ask the Pirates and Royals. Oh, and the Orioles.

First of all, I guess a lot of posters here must be on the Orioles payroll, since quite a few seem to support management's approach. Second, Tampa, Oakland and (in past years) Minnesota have proved you don't need a big payroll to win semi-consistently. Third, the O's do spend more than those teams. Fourth, the offseason is not over. I'm not expecting any huge blockbusters but I do expect some more moves will be made.

[wildcard]

I was just answering a poster's question asking who had a career year, by which I meant the best year in their career so far. I am not disagreeing with any of you that there are reasons to be optimistic that most or all of these guys can repeat or even improve on what they did in 2012. But, it is understandable if some in the industry are skeptical that things will happen that way.

wildcard, I do not put Tillman in the same category as Gonzalez, though. Tillman has had three previous shots at establishing himself as a decent big league pitcher, and he has never had an injury setback. What he did this year certainly qualifies as a career year for him to this point in his career.

By the way, I don't know that I'd be so definitive about JJ having had a career year, unless you are using saves as the only measuring stick. JJ was just as effective in 2008 and 2011, he just wasn't in the same role.

On Tillman - half a season of performance is not a career year. Its improvement. Something that he should be able to surpassed with a full year of pitching sometime in his career.

[Frobby]

On Tillman - half a season of performance is not a career year. Its improvement. Something that he should be able to surpassed with a full year of pitching sometime in his career.

I just think we are using the term differently.

12 starts, 5.40 ERA

11 starts, 5.87 ERA

13 starts, 5.52 ERA

15 starts, 2.93 ERA

For me, 2012 was clearly a career year for Tillman. He had more starts and performed WAY better than in any previous year. And if you are a member of the baseball industry or national media, it would be fair to look at those four seasons and conclude that Tillman is not a sure bet to perform well in 2013. There's reason for optimism, but there's still a lot of uncertainty.

[scOtt]

And the 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Orioles bro.

You have to be on the payroll...have to be.

I wish! They pay even better than my government job.