One scout's early take on the 2013 Orioles and the AL East

[wildcard]

Hammel, Tillman, Strop, Patton, Chen, Gonzalez, Jones, Steve Johnson, and Matusz once moved to the pen. Other than that, not much.

I think you are confusing that these guys had their best year yet with that being a career year. There is little reason to believe that these young players do not have their career year still ahead of them. Jim Johnson probably had a career year. Strop's year was on his way to a career year but he had a down period in the last 6 week. If he improves him durability he may do better for a whole season.

[wildcard]

How common is it for a 28 year-old to make their MLB debut and put up numbers roughly comparable to their career lines in the minors?

I don't have the answer but I think the fact that he had TJ surgery in the minors and it took a couple of years to come back from that changed the direction of his career. The O's got him at full strength thanks to Fred Ferreira. It has to be noted that at 23 years old Gonzo was 8-4 with a 3.37 ERA in 130 innings and only 19 starts before the TJ surgery.

[weams]

What happened to freedom of speech?

THE Orioleshangout is a company, owned and operated by HangoutVentures, LLC. It is not a nation. Though it feels like one.

[weams]

Pay close attention. The people that are labeled trolls are not done so because of their views.

I am certain that all of us participate in Trollish behaviors. Some just live the life.

[wildcard]

THE Orioleshangout is a company, owned and operated by HangoutVentures, LLC. It is not a nation. Though it feels like one.

I guess that means you are working for "the man".

[Brendan25]

Hammel, Tillman, Strop, Patton, Chen, Gonzalez, Jones, Steve Johnson, and Matusz once moved to the pen. Other than that, not much.

Career year or not, the question is do we expect Jones, Davis, Tillman, Hammel, Gonzo, and Patton to have better years next season. They may put up better numbers one year down the road, but it is very likely some if not most will regress a bit, next season. I think an injury free Hammel will have better numbers just by virtue of more starts. I look for Tillman to step up again. I could see the rest slipping some.

Jones: As good or better

Davis: Better

Tillman: May regress a little but still very good

Hammel: If healthy, very good

Gonzo: The bulldog. Don't see much regression

Even if 2-3 of those slip, Wieters & Hardy having better years, Machado being at 3rd a full season, Markakis being healthy, not having Matusz/Arrieta/Hunter in the rotation for 3-4 months will even out that regression.

[El Gordo]

Jones: As good or better

Davis: Better

Tillman: May regress a little but still very good

Hammel: If healthy, very good

Gonzo: The bulldog. Don't see much regression

Even if 2-3 of those slip, Wieters & Hardy having better years, Machado being at 3rd a full season, Markakis being healthy, not having Matusz/Arrieta/Hunter in the rotation for 3-4 months will even out that regression.

I look for Wieters, Hardy, Markakis, and Machado to improve. Hammel and Chen to be about the same with their peripherals, but improve in the W column. I think Jones wont hit as many HR but improve his OBP. His RBI could go up or down depending on the OBP of those hitting in front of him. I don't know what to expect from Davis.McLouth and Reimold are crap shoots. That's where we could use some insurence. Betemit should be more effective if allowed to face mostly RHP and not allowed to wear a glove too often. I think Tillman will progress but who knows, I really liked what I saw from Gonzo but I could see him slipping back as well. I am hoping one of Matusz, Britton, or Arrieta, will advance, but I'm not holding my breath. I think the bullpen will be strong, though not as good as last season.

[epic]

There were a bunch of players that had great season last year. Hammel, Gonzo, JJ, Davis, Jones, Chen, Strop, Tillman among others. I think most, if not all, of these guys can have similar years next year. The one thing that I'm concerned about is health. I think we'll have a very competitive squad next year if we aren't hit too hard by the injury bug. I'm mainly thinking about the rotation. Injuries there could really bite us hard. It's nice to have some capable replacements in Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, Johnson, and potentially other others (Bundy, Hunter? maybe even Clarke?).

At the end of the day, it's our durability I think that will be a big factor in this teams success.

[weams]

Jim Bowden and Casey Stern say that we have squandered our oportunity and rested on our laurels. So we don't need to debate it any longer. We are all losers again. No need to watch the games. Merry Christmas.

[Frobby]

I think sometimes people view the term "career year" as implying that a lot of luck was involved and/or the player was playing "over his head" and is unlikely to sustain that level of performance. In the Orioles' case, I'm not sure that is true. It seems to me that, at the stage of their careers that Jones, Davis, Tillman, and Patton are, we should be overly surprised by their 2012 performances. They are all at a stage where year-to-year improvement is almost to be expected. Their 2012 seasons, to me, are more "their best seasons so far" than "their career years." At least I hope that's the case.

In Hammel's case, I think maybe some credit is due DD and/or our scouts for seeing a potential breakout there. This article -- http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/6/18/3094046/a-pitchf-x-look-at-four-2012-breakout-pitchers -- suggests that there are reasons for his improvement beyond pure luck, and that perhaps he has turned the corner.

Gonzalez was the shocker, IMO. Kudos to Fred Ferreira on that one. Great find.

Is it really fair to bash a bunch of 24-25 year olds for having "career years" though? It's not like we are talking about 33 year olds having the best year of their career. We are talking about top prospects.

Wait a minute:

Gonzalez was a rookie. There is no way to know if that was a career year for him. If he pitches a full season as a starter this year he could surpass his 2012 number by July.

Tillman - not a rookie but same comment as Gonzo.

Hammel as you said was down for months. That is not a career year.

Patton pitched just like he did in 2011 except for a few more innings and he too missed time

Jones has been making incremental improvement each year in one category or another. He played 162 games in 2012. But there is not reason to think he will not top his numbers next year. He was only 26 this past year.

Davis only had a little over 500 at bats in 2012. It sure sounds like he will be an everyday player next year so we can expect that he will improve some on his number in 2013.

I don't see that any on those guys having career years in 2012. Just improved on the way to a career year. Jim Johnson had a career year. No two ways about that one.

I was just answering a poster's question asking who had a career year, by which I meant the best year in their career so far. I am not disagreeing with any of you that there are reasons to be optimistic that most or all of these guys can repeat or even improve on what they did in 2012. But, it is understandable if some in the industry are skeptical that things will happen that way.

wildcard, I do not put Tillman in the same category as Gonzalez, though. Tillman has had three previous shots at establishing himself as a decent big league pitcher, and he has never had an injury setback. What he did this year certainly qualifies as a career year for him to this point in his career.

By the way, I don't know that I'd be so definitive about JJ having had a career year, unless you are using saves as the only measuring stick. JJ was just as effective in 2008 and 2011, he just wasn't in the same role.

[jjnono]

I would not plan future expenditures around extending Wieters.

Thank you. That's near sacrilege on this board, but it's accurate...

[luismatos4prez]

Hammel, Tillman, Strop, Patton, Chen, Gonzalez, Jones, Steve Johnson, and Matusz once moved to the pen. Other than that, not much.

By your criteria, Machado had a career year as well.

[scOtt]

Jim Bowden and Casey Stern say that we have squandered our oportunity and rested on our laurels. So we don't need to debate it any longer. We are all losers again. No need to watch the games. Merry Christmas.

[video=youtube;v4jGSvxCRp4]

At the end of the day, it's our durability I think that will be a big factor in this teams success.

DD's forte.

[Orange_Crush]

Remind me again who had a career year for the O's. Outside of Jim Johnson I can't think of anyone.

Hammel? Gonzalez? Chen?(Albeit these last 2 have a small sample size) Tillman, the same. O'Day. You could argue Adam Jones for whatever it's worth.

Maybe not a career year but a puzzling one, McLouth. Davis has an arguement.

[scOtt]

Hammel? Gonzalez? Chen?(Albeit these last 2 have a small sample size) Tillman, the same. O'Day. You could argue Adam Jones for whatever it's worth.

Maybe not a career year but a puzzling one, McLouth. Davis has an arguement.

And without doing exact research cuz it's Friday night... All but one of EVERY single name you posted is 26 years old or less.