One scout's early take on the 2013 Orioles and the AL East

[Orange_Crush]

Not a single "expert" whose work I read, and it was plenty, predicted the O's to finish above last place. The Orioles are bringing back every crucial member of a team that won 93 games, and they're improving areas of weakness that hurt the the team at various points last year- RH hitter depth and lack of speed, for instance. It's not flashy but it will translate to success just like little moves made a huge impact last year. Quality depth and a strong bench are much more important than they appear at first glance.

And I still think DD has a bigger move in mind, and will execute it when he's ready.

Reynolds? No.

You're also assuming all these guys who had careerish type years in 2012 will pan out and repeat or outperform 2012.

[wildcard]

Reynolds? No.

You're also assuming all these guys who had careerish type years in 2012 will pan out and repeat or outperform 2012.

Remind me again who had a career year for the O's. Outside of Jim Johnson I can't think of anyone.

[Brendan25]

Reynolds? No.

You're also assuming all these guys who had careerish type years in 2012 will pan out and repeat or outperform 2012.

Remind me again who had a career year for the O's. Outside of Jim Johnson I can't think of anyone.

Yeah I'd love to hear this also.

[Frobby]

Remind me again who had a career year for the O's. Outside of Jim Johnson I can't think of anyone.

Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jones, Davis, Patton. Granted, Hammel missed a lot of time with injury, but he's a career 95 ERA+ pitcher who put up a 130 ERA+. Davis had a better slash line when he broke in, but he easily had career highs in HR and RBI and put up his best slash line in several years, so I consider it his best year by far.

[Number5]

Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jones, Davis, Patton. Granted, Hammel missed a lot of time with injury, but he's a career 95 ERA+ pitcher who put up a 130 ERA+. Davis had a better slash line when he broke in, but he easily had career highs in HR and RBI and put up his best slash line in several years, so I consider it his best year by far.

I think sometimes people view the term "career year" as implying that a lot of luck was involved and/or the player was playing "over his head" and is unlikely to sustain that level of performance. In the Orioles' case, I'm not sure that is true. It seems to me that, at the stage of their careers that Jones, Davis, Tillman, and Patton are, we should be overly surprised by their 2012 performances. They are all at a stage where year-to-year improvement is almost to be expected. Their 2012 seasons, to me, are more "their best seasons so far" than "their career years." At least I hope that's the case.

In Hammel's case, I think maybe some credit is due DD and/or our scouts for seeing a potential breakout there. This article -- http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/6/18/3094046/a-pitchf-x-look-at-four-2012-breakout-pitchers -- suggests that there are reasons for his improvement beyond pure luck, and that perhaps he has turned the corner.

Gonzalez was the shocker, IMO. Kudos to Fred Ferreira on that one. Great find.

[Brendan25]

Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jones, Davis, Patton. Granted, Hammel missed a lot of time with injury, but he's a career 95 ERA+ pitcher who put up a 130 ERA+. Davis had a better slash line when he broke in, but he easily had career highs in HR and RBI and put up his best slash line in several years, so I consider it his best year by far.

Is it really fair to bash a bunch of 24-25 year olds for having "career years" though? It's not like we are talking about 33 year olds having the best year of their career. We are talking about top prospects.

[Number5]

I think sometimes people view the term "career year" as implying that a lot of luck was involved and/or the player was playing "over his head" and is unlikely to sustain that level of performance. In the Orioles' case, I'm not sure that is true. It seems to me that, at the stage of their careers that Jones, Davis, Tillman, and Patton are, we should be overly surprised by their 2012 performances. They are all at a stage where year-to-year improvement is almost to be expected. Their 2012 seasons, to me, are more "their best seasons so far" than "their career years." At least I hope that's the case.

In Hammel's case, I think maybe some credit is due DD and/or our scouts for seeing a potential breakout there. This article -- http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/6/18/3094046/a-pitchf-x-look-at-four-2012-breakout-pitchers -- suggests that there are reasons for his improvement beyond pure luck, and that perhaps he has turned the corner.

Gonzalez was the shocker, IMO. Kudos to Fred Ferreira on that one. Great find.

Eide, that should read "should not" be overly surprise. Sorry, I can't edit my posts.

[Number5]

Eide, that should read "should not" be overly surprise. Sorry, I can't edit my posts.

"Edit" LOL

[Tony-OH]

Remind me again who had a career year for the O's. Outside of Jim Johnson I can't think of anyone.

Hammel, Tillman, Strop, Patton, Chen, Gonzalez, Jones, Steve Johnson, and Matusz once moved to the pen. Other than that, not much.

[El Gordo]

Is it really fair to bash a bunch of 24-25 year olds for having "career years" though? It's not like we are talking about 33 year olds having the best year of their career. We are talking about top prospects.

Career year or not, the question is do we expect Jones, Davis, Tillman, Hammel, Gonzo, and Patton to have better years next season. They may put up better numbers one year down the road, but it is very likely some if not most will regress a bit, next season. I think an injury free Hammel will have better numbers just by virtue of more starts. I look for Tillman to step up again. I could see the rest slipping some.

[Crazysilver03]

Hammel, Tillman, Strop, Patton, Chen, Gonzalez, Jones, Steve Johnson, and Matusz once moved to the pen. Other than that, not much.

Don't forget O'Day.

[waroriole]

Hammel, Tillman, Strop, Patton, Chen, Gonzalez, Jones, Steve Johnson, and Matusz once moved to the pen. Other than that, not much.

Those guys don't really have many other years to compare it to.

[Can_of_corn]

Don't forget O'Day.

You need to go back and check O'Day's stats again. Last year was a career high for IP and SO for him true but it was his third best season by ERA+.

[wildcard]

Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jones, Davis, Patton. Granted, Hammel missed a lot of time with injury, but he's a career 95 ERA+ pitcher who put up a 130 ERA+. Davis had a better slash line when he broke in, but he easily had career highs in HR and RBI and put up his best slash line in several years, so I consider it his best year by far.

Wait a minute:

Gonzalez was a rookie. There is no way to know if that was a career year for him. If he pitches a full season as a starter this year he could surpass his 2012 number by July.

Tillman - not a rookie but same comment as Gonzo.

Hammel as you said was down for months. That is not a career year.

Patton pitched just like he did in 2011 except for a few more innings and he too missed time

Jones has been making incremental improvement each year in one category or another. He played 162 games in 2012. But there is not reason to think he will not top his numbers next year. He was only 26 this past year.

Davis only had a little over 500 at bats in 2012. It sure sounds like he will be an everyday player next year so we can expect that he will improve some on his number in 2013.

I don't see that any on those guys having career years in 2012. Just improved on the way to a career year. Jim Johnson had a career year. No two ways about that one.

[Can_of_corn]

How common is it for a 28 year-old to make their MLB debut and put up numbers roughly comparable to their career lines in the minors?