Dbacks and Braves agree to Upton deal

[clapdiddy]

Here is some wild speculation to get the O's involved in this thread.

I don't believe the O's ties to Kubel were ever serious. He just doesn't make any sense for the O's. However, Martin Prado was, supposedly, coveted by the O's last year as his name was brought up as part of a potential Jones package last offseason. Again, don't really know how serious at all those talks with the Braves ever were.

Anyway, could all the Kubel/Porcello talk that resurfaced yesterday actually have something to do with the O's trying to obtain Prado and then moving Hardy for Porcello?

Wild speculation. I personally take the O's at their word when they say they will not trade JJ Hardy.

I doubt they trade Hardy, but I'd have no problems with this deal. I think Machado's best value is going to be as a shortstop, and I have no problems with him being there sooner rather than later.

Prado would be nice to put on third base for a season and then we would hopefully put Schoop there in 2014.

[skanar]

Going by Sickels grades and positioning, here's a possible comp for the Braves package from the Orioles system:

Martin Prado --> JJ Hardy. Prado is the hardest to get a handle on; but he's 29, Hardy is 30; Prado is under contract for one year, Hardy two; both are decent defenders; Prado has 15.8 WAR in 2799 PA, Hardy has 18.2 WAR in 3953 PA.

RHP Randall Delgado --> Zach Britton. Also a bit tough. Both are no longer prospects, but were highly rated. Both have limited MLB service time, high ceilings, and question marks (Delgado's is control, Britton's is health). Delgado probably is worth more, but that difference is made up by replacing

SS Nick Ahmed --> Jonathan Schoop. Orioles' only decent MI prospect right now. Schoop is better, but Ahmed got a B- from Sickels, and the extra value here compensates for Britton being behind Delgado.

RHP Zeke Spruill --> Mike Wright. Both advanced guys with limited ceilings (typically get called 4th/5th starters), both got B- from Sickels. Spruill is probably a bit ahead, but it's close.

So, I see a comparable O's trade for Upton and Johnson as Hardy, Schoop, Britton, and Wright. I think that would have been an ok but not great trade for the O's, mostly due to the inclusion of Hardy - Chris Johnson is similar offensively, but much worse on defense at 3B than Hardy is at SS.

Edit: Didn't know about inclusion of Drury, but he's a near-zero-value low-A throw-in. Think Hector Veloz, Torsten Boss, or Jason Esposito.

[Norfolk orioles]

Wow what a fleecing. The braves get a huge bat in their lineup and lose Prado (good player, not great) and a pitching prospect who didn't pan out + a couple minor leaguers.

Great trade for the braves. With the mets and marlins sucking as much as they do and the Phil's being completely over the hill, the braves just made the nl east a two horse race with them and Washington going toe to tie this year.

Provided he can get along with his brother, this is a great trade for them.

[isestrex]

Relief

We didn't really need Kubel anyway.

[paulcoates]

Lets not forget they got Chris Johnson in the deal as well. We could have put Johnson on 3rd and MM at SS. I would have done that deal

[Number5]

Here is some wild speculation to get the O's involved in this thread.

I don't believe the O's ties to Kubel were ever serious. He just doesn't make any sense for the O's. However, Martin Prado was, supposedly, coveted by the O's last year as his name was brought up as part of a potential Jones package last offseason. Again, don't really know how serious at all those talks with the Braves ever were.

Anyway, could all the Kubel/Porcello talk that resurfaced yesterday actually have something to do with the O's trying to obtain Prado and then moving Hardy for Porcello?

Wild speculation. I personally take the O's at their word when they say they will not trade JJ Hardy.

I don't see this from Arizona's side. They just gave up their existing third baseman, Johnson, in the deal, so if they turn around and trade Prado, who plays third? Chavez? I doubt it. Also, having just acquired Delgado, Porcello wouldn't seem to be as much of a target for them, IMO.

[Tx Oriole]

If Upton comes, he's playing LF. It may be old school reasoning but Jones and Markakis have won Gold Gloves at their positions and are well established. I'd be shocked if either one of them moved.

Oh okay I thought her would be in center field.

[isestrex]

Good trade for both sides if you believe Upton isn't really as good as his potential. From the difficulty the D-Backs had finding buyers for Upton, it's clear that much of the league was weary of him as well.

Arizona solves it's OF depth problem and strengthens it's farm system. The Braves have the best OF in baseball (after having the best OF in baseball last year with different players), and got their 3B solution in Chris Johnson.

[clapdiddy]

I think this deal was a steal for the Braves.

[Stotle]

Not sure how that package comes anywhere close to approaching something that includes Bundy.

Prado is a nice player.

Delgado is a nice prospect that pitched as well as could be expected in the majors last year. He's no Teheran IMO.

I guess that they really did want another SS prospect with Ahmed, even though they just obtained Gregorius. The talk from Stotle was that if the Dbacks had obtained Franklin from Seattle, they could move him to 2B, 3B or OF. Ahmed's stats don't look to translate anywhere but SS.

Spruill seems to be a nice pitching prospect as well, but the DBacks didn't get that top propsect that I would have thought they could have obtained. I think that this package is worse for their future than the failed Seattle deal.

I always wanted to convert Ahmed to CF. Overall "meh" package from ATL on prospect side. Prado is a solid get for ARI but certainly lacks Upton's MVP potential.

[Lester Freamon]

I don't see this from Arizona's side. They just gave up their existing third baseman, Johnson, in the deal, so if they turn around and trade Prado, who plays third? Chavez? I doubt it. Also, having just acquired Delgado, Porcello wouldn't seem to be as much of a target for them, IMO.

Yeah I agree. If they hadn't also traded Chris Johnson in the deal maybe that idea makes sense. I don't think Chavez or Eric Hinske can be viewed as everyday options at 3B. I have no idea if the DBacks have a top notch 3B prospect who is ready. The Porcello part would be the O's trading Hardy for Porcello, after having traded for Prado from AZ.

I was mostly throwing the idea out there as a way to justify the tread being in the O's forum instead of MLB. Don't think the O's will trade Hardy and I don't know if the DBacks can now afford to trade Prado.

[Stotle]

Was a 5 for 2 not 4 for 2.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal

I didn't think they would end up with getting an offer that was equivalent to the one the Mariners offered.

I don't know that it's worse -- I think it's a different type of offer, sure. No one in SEA deal had Prado's "now" value. Delgado at MLB level right now and Spruil not far off.

[Tryptamine]

The most important aspect of this for both our teams is that this trade basically means Skaggs is now available. DBack's rotation is already full Kennedy/Cahill/McCarthy/Delgado/Miley and eventually Hudson. That means Skaggs and Corbin are going to be rotting in the minors unless the injury bug hits.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't know that it's worse -- I think it's a different type of offer, sure. No one in SEA deal had Prado's "now" value. Delgado at MLB level right now and Spruil not far off.

With Prado only having one year of team control left and a pricetag north of 6 million I am not as enamored with his "now" value. I guess if I thought AZ were legitimate contenders in the West.

[stomperspc]

Going by Sickels grades and positioning, here's a possible comp for the Braves package from the Orioles system:

Martin Prado --> JJ Hardy. Prado is the hardest to get a handle on; but he's 29, Hardy is 30; Prado is under contract for one year, Hardy two; both are decent defenders; Prado has 15.8 WAR in 2799 PA, Hardy has 18.2 WAR in 3953 PA.

RHP Randall Delgado --> Zach Britton. Also a bit tough. Both are no longer prospects, but were highly rated. Both have limited MLB service time, high ceilings, and question marks (Delgado's is control, Britton's is health). Delgado probably is worth more, but that difference is made up by replacing

SS Nick Ahmed --> Jonathan Schoop. Orioles' only decent MI prospect right now. Schoop is better, but Ahmed got a B- from Sickels, and the extra value here compensates for Britton being behind Delgado.

RHP Zeke Spruill --> Mike Wright. Both advanced guys with limited ceilings (typically get called 4th/5th starters), both got B- from Sickels. Spruill is probably a bit ahead, but it's close.

So, I see a comparable O's trade for Upton and Johnson as Hardy, Schoop, Britton, and Wright. I think that would have been an ok but not great trade for the O's, mostly due to the inclusion of Hardy - Chris Johnson is similar offensively, but much worse on defense at 3B than Hardy is at SS.

Edit: Didn't know about inclusion of Drury, but he's a near-zero-value low-A throw-in. Think Hector Veloz, Torsten Boss, or Jason Esposito.

I am not sure if Hardy/Prado would be a direct comparison from Arizona's end. Seems like they maybe preferred a 3B back over a SS. They got Gregorius when they traded Bauer and he seems to be their SS of the future, with Pennington/Bloomquist serving as a bridge in 2013. Its hard to say whether they would value Hardy as much as Prado.

Lets not forget they got Chris Johnson in the deal as well. We could have put Johnson on 3rd and MM at SS. I would have done that deal.

I doubt AZ trades Chris Johnson to the Orioles if they are getting Hardy (a SS) instead of a 3B. They'd keep Johnson to play third in that case and the Orioles would be looking at Betemit or Valencia at 3B in 2013.

It wasn't a bad deal for either team but we really don't know if the O's could have put together a deal to get it done without knowing exactly what Arizona was looking for. I also think Delgado probably has more upside than Britton right now.