Johnson Part of the Core

[Can_of_corn]

Strangely and against my better judgment I'm beginning to think the payroll just might go up. This could be one indication, the fact that in the scheme of things they feel they can afford JJ. They know what we need to upgrade. If they feel they need a top CL to be in it next season, it may be because they intend to add a few major pieces. IMO JJ would have been the best piece to move if you wanted to free up salary.

I feel strongly that payroll goes up, I just don't think it is going to go up significantly. If OD payroll is set at 105 million then I don't see room for Johnson at 8 million +.

[Frobby]

Strangely and against my better judgment I'm beginning to think the payroll just might go up. This could be one indication, the fact that in the scheme of things they feel they can afford JJ. They know what we need to upgrade. If they feel they need a top CL to be in it next season, it may be because they intend to add a few major pieces. IMO JJ would have been the best piece to move if you wanted to free up salary.

Well, like every team in MLB, they have an extra $25 mm in extra TV money to play with, and the 250,000 increase in paid attendance should have brought in another extra $10 mm or so. So, ignoring whatever is behind the MASN black curtain, the O's probably could raise payroll by $35 mm if they wanted to. I doubt they will raise it my that much, or even close, but $15-20 mm would not surprise me. However, some of that will go to raises for existing players, possibly including some long term contracts. I'm not expecting them to go out and sign several top-end free agents. I think the new TV money will cause the FA market to be way overheated with so-so players getting contracts that are too big and too long, and the O's would be wise not to get into that feeding frenzy but concentrate on locking up their own guys who they want to keep long-term.

[Can_of_corn]

Well, like every team in MLB, they have an extra $25 mm in extra TV money to play with, and the 250,000 increase in paid attendance should have brought in another extra $10 mm or so. So, ignoring whatever is behind the MASN black curtain, the O's probably could raise payroll by $35 mm if they wanted to. I doubt they will raise it my that much, or even close, but $15-20 mm would not surprise me. However, some of that will go to raises for existing players, possibly including some long term contracts. I'm not expecting them to go out and sign several top-end free agents. I think the new TV money will cause the FA market to be way overheated with so-so players getting contracts that are too big and too long, and the O's would be wise not to get into that feeding frenzy but concentrate on locking up their own guys who they want to keep long-term.

I expect OD payroll and total payroll to be separate entities again this season. DD is going to want to leave some room for taking on salary as the season progresses.

[Frobby]

Top SD% with over 30 tries

1. Holland      91.1%2. Benoit       90.9%3. Nathan       90.7%4. Kimbrel      88.6%5. Robertson    88.4%6. Balfour      86.8%7. Melancon     86.7%8. Mujica       86.5%9. Uehara       85.4%10. Janssen     85.4%...31. Johnson     76.0%

.

For context, I count 73 pitchers with at least 30 tries, so JJ's shutdown percentage was above average though not spectacular. Here's how JJ compares to other Orioles:

Johnson 76% (38-12)

O'Day 75% (27-9)

Hunter 69% (22-10)

Matusz 68% (15-7)

Patton 47% (8-9)

McFarland 47% (7-8)

So, JJ was the best we had.

[Frobby]

I expect OD payroll and total payroll to be separate entities again this season. DD is going to want to leave some room for taking on salary as the season progresses.

True. So, for apples to apples, I expect OD payroll in 2014 to be higher than OD payroll in 2013. Whether total payroll is higher in 2014 than 2013 will depend in part on whether we're in the race.

[El Gordo]

Well, like every team in MLB, they have an extra $25 mm in extra TV money to play with, and the 250,000 increase in paid attendance should have brought in another extra $10 mm or so. So, ignoring whatever is behind the MASN black curtain, the O's probably could raise payroll by $35 mm if they wanted to. I doubt they will raise it my that much, or even close, but $15-20 mm would not surprise me. However, some of that will go to raises for existing players, possibly including some long term contracts. I'm not expecting them to go out and sign several top-end free agents. I think the new TV money will cause the FA market to be way overheated with so-so players getting contracts that are too big and too long, and the O's would be wise not to get into that feeding frenzy but concentrate on locking up their own guys who they want to keep long-term.

The payroll with raises and arbitration included will come to about 90M. As to extensions I think it is doubtful we will see more than one, probably none. Not because they won't try, but because the 3 players involved, Manny, Davis and Wieters aren't interested.

So it is possible a goodly portion of the extra 20-30 M could go to acquisitions.

[Crazysilver03]

The payroll woith raises and arbitration included will come to about 90M. As to extensions I think it is doubtful we will see more than one, probably none. Not because they won't try, but because the 3 players involved, Manny, Davis and Wieters aren't interested.

So it is possible a goodly portion of the extra 20-30 M could go to acquisitions.

How do you know those three players aren't interested? And wasn't it the team that didn't want to approach Wieters?

[Can_of_corn]

How do you know those three players aren't interested? And wasn't it the team that didn't want to approach Wieters?

If I was Manny and I have had trouble with my Patella twice in the last three seasons, I would be open to talks that included long term security.

[Crazysilver03]

How do you know those three players aren't interested? And wasn't it the team that didn't want to approach Wieters?

Well El Gordo is full of BS. There is a fresh article today talking about how Davis is eager to sign an extension.

[El Gordo]

How do you know those three players aren't interested? And wasn't it the team that didn't want to approach Wieters?

I don't think it is certain they aren't interested. I suspect because of who their agents are: Boras and Lozano, that they won't be. I see a possibility of one of Wieters or Manny, but only a slim one. IIRC the team said Wieters wasn't interested.

[El Gordo]

Well El Gordo is full of BS. There is a fresh article today talking about how Davis is eager to sign an extension.

Care to post a link? A lot of people have trouble reading and interpreting things around here, so I would prefer to read it for myself. And I thank you for your kind words.

[Crazysilver03]

Care to post a link? A lot of people have trouble reading and interpreting things around here, so I would prefer to read it for myself. And I thank you for your kind words.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RichDubroffCSN/status/384350572456861697?screen_name=RichDubroffCSN

[mdbdotcom]

Care to post a link? A lot of people have trouble reading and interpreting things around here, so I would prefer to read it for myself. And I thank you for your kind words.

Here you go

[El Gordo]

Here you go

Just as I thought. Asked if he wanted to extend, instead of saying yes he goes on about how he loves the colors orange and black and wearing them someday (not necessarily the Orioles) and then says,"This place has just been, I’ve had so many good memories in two years, you know I’d love to extend that(good memories) for a number of years.” That isn't the same as what the tweet says. I seem to remember TEX waxing poetic about what a dream it would be to play in B'more. Not to say Chris is a douche like TEX, but that an extension is his agent's department, and he understandably needs to be circumspect in his answers. Of course he would love to stay in B'more, and if the O's offer him the 5/100+M the MFY or TEX do, then maybe he will. I stand by my original assumption that the O's wont offer enough to convince Boras to advise him to extend.

[Can_of_corn]

Just as I thought. Asked if he wanted to extend, instead of saying yeas he goes on about how he loves the colors orange and black and wearing them someday (not necessarily the Orioles) and then says,"This place has just been, I’ve had so many good memories in two years, you know I’d love to extend that(good memories) for a number of years.” That isn't the same as what the tweet says. I seem to remember TEX waxing poetic about what a dream it would be to play in B'more. Not to say Chris is a douche like TEX, but that an extension is his agent's department, and he understandably needs to be circumspect in his answers. Of course he would love to stay in B'more, and if the O's offer him the 5/100+M the MFY or TEX do, then maybe he will. I stand by my original assumption that the O's wont offer enough to convince Boras to advise him to extend.

I agree with Gordo, this isn't a firm declaration that he intends to stay.