Johnson Part of the Core

[mark_beckens]

Again, I didn't bring it up you did. I wasn't using it to make a point. You used it in your post. You did, however, totally disregard the more useful WPA stat I posted.

So you didn't use blown saves and losses to prove some misguided attempt? I only mentioned them because if you and others are going to use them against him, then his saves should be just as relevant. He accomplished a feat only 3 other people had, 4 times total before tonight.

[mark_beckens]

My mistake, but again my point was that saves is not as useful a statistic as WPA. Johnson last year WPA 5.3 This year -0.7

And your point is what? Does it some how matter in the fact he has saved 100 games in the last two years, becoming one of 4 closers to do so?

[psychboy12]

I love JJ, can't dismiss 99 saves over 2 years, regardless of your impression of the Save stat. However, considering tendering and contracts, how many "closers" produce impressively longer than 2 years? Rivera, Stoltz, Gagne and a handful of others? That role should not be considered at the cost of JJ's pending $$$. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/multi-year-deals-for-relievers-an-ugly-retrospective/

[Frobby]

My mistake, but again my point was that saves is not as useful a statistic as WPA. Johnson last year WPA 5.3 This year -0.7

My guess would be, that's pretty consistent with his save percentage. An average closer saves a little better than JJ's 84.5%, so the fact that his WPA is slightly negative isn't that surprising to me. Still, I just don't think it's that easy to take the ball in a close game as often as JJ has over the last two years. I'm comfortable that JJ is a durable, above average reliever who this year had the misfortune of allowing his runs when they mattered a lot, whereas last year he allowed them when they didn't matter much. That drives WPA but it isn't necessarily a matter of skill. There are some guys who habitually allow their runs when the situation is tense, but JJ hasn't been that guy over his career. I'm very comfortable betting his save percentage and his WPA will be up significantly in 2014. I'm also comfortable betting he won't replicate 2012 again.

[Il BuonO]

So you didn't use blown saves and losses to prove some misguided attempt? I only mentioned them because if you and others are going to use them against him, then his saves should be just as relevant. He accomplished a feat only 3 other people had, 4 times total before tonight.

No, I responded to your post listing his accomplishment of 100 saves over two years. I've noticed you do this in other threads. Do you have a short term memory problem?

My point was to show that saves is not a big deal and there are better measuring sticks. WPA being one. ONE. There are others.

I'm also on record as saying I think Johnson is probably worth the money he's being paid right now, but that we cannot afford to pay that kind of money to a reliever. Any reliever. Savvy?

It's a poor allocation of funds. In other words, if you want to make it about the saves. Fine. It's not about that. I believe that's mainly a statistic agents use to drive up the price on their clients, but have at it.

[mark_beckens]

No, I responded to your post listing his accomplishment of 100 saves over two years. I've noticed you do this in other threads. Do you have a short term memory problem?

My point was to show that saves is not a big deal and there are better measuring sticks. WPA being one. ONE. There are others.

I'm also on record as saying I think Johnson is probably worth the money he's being paid right now, but that we cannot afford to pay that kind of money to a reliever. Any reliever. Savvy?

It's a poor allocation of funds. In other words, if you want to make it about the saves. Fine. It's not about that. I believe that's mainly a statistic agents use to drive up the price on their clients, but have at it.

My post was to list the 4 other players who have saved 100 games in 2 years. Didn't say anything more or less. Was a list with no commentary!

[Il BuonO]

My guess would be, that's pretty consistent with his save percentage. An average closer saves a little better than JJ's 84.5%, so the fact that his WPA is slightly negative isn't that surprising to me. Still, I just don't think it's that easy to take the ball in a close game as often as JJ has over the last two years. I'm comfortable that JJ is a durable, above average reliever who this year had the misfortune of allowing his runs when they mattered a lot, whereas last year he allowed them when they didn't matter much. That drives WPA but it isn't necessarily a matter of skill. There are some guys who habitually allow their runs when the situation is tense, but JJ hasn't been that guy over his career. I'm very comfortable betting his save percentage and his WPA will be up significantly in 2014. I'm also comfortable betting he won't replicate 2012 again.

Oh for the love of Pete, I agree with you. It isn't about that. I know you're a smart guy, too, and you must have seen some of my other posts that say if we increase our payroll I'm all about having him back. What do you put the percentage of that happening?

[isestrex]

I'm rusty on the exact definition of a shutdown, but since that post , JJ has pitched five scoreless innings: three in one-run saves, one in a 2-run save, and one in a tie game. If all five count, his shutdown rate is 76%.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/sd-md/

The +/- 6% cutoff puts SDs and MDs on a similar scale as saves and holds, meaning 40 shutdowns is roughly as impressive as 40 saves or 40 holds. Dominant closers or set-up men will typically have 35 to 40+ shutdowns and a handful of meltdowns.

Meanwhile, meltdowns are more common than blown saves, and they can happen to both closers and non-closers alike. The worst relievers will rack up around 10 to 15 meltdowns in a season.

<table width="200" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" align="center"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3"><th align="center">Rating</th><th align="center">SD</th><th align="center">MD</th></tr><tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center">Excellent</td><td align="center">40</td><td align="center">2</td></tr><tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center">Great</td><td align="center">35</td><td align="center">4</td></tr><tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center">Above Average</td><td align="center">25</td><td align="center">6</td></tr><tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center">Average</td><td align="center">20</td><td align="center">8</td></tr><tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center">Below Average</td><td align="center">15</td><td align="center">10</td></tr><tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center">Poor</td><td align="center">10</td><td align="center">12</td></tr><tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><td align="center">Awful</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">15</td></tr></tbody></table>

Top SD% with over 30 tries

1. Holland      91.1%2. Benoit       90.9%3. Nathan       90.7%4. Kimbrel      88.6%5. Robertson    88.4%6. Balfour      86.8%7. Melancon     86.7%8. Mujica       86.5%9. Uehara       85.4%10. Janssen     85.4%...31. Johnson     76.0%

Johnson does, however, lead the league in total "situations" (SD+MD) with 50.

[Lawlbringer]

You never want to point the finger at one person, but with JJ it's hard not to.

He's had a lot of saves, but also a lot of save opportunities missed. If he saves just 6 of those 10 blown saves, we're playing for a postseason spot tomorrow.

The bullpen in general faltered and coughed up too many leads, but JJ was captain of that ship. I still don't want him as our closer come next year.

[mdbdotcom]

You never want to point the finger at one person, but with JJ it's hard not to.

He's had a lot of saves, but also a lot of save opportunities missed. If he saves just 6 of those 10 blown saves, we're playing for a postseason spot tomorrow.

The bullpen in general faltered and coughed up too many leads, but JJ was captain of that ship. I still don't want him as our closer come next year.

He has 9 blown saves, not 10. When you say, "If he saves just 6 of those 10 blown saves," it's ridiculous. That would make him 55-3 in save opportunities. Aside from the fact that a pitcher has earned 55 saves in a season only four times (KRod, Thigpen, Gagne, Smoltz - once each), that would give him a success rate of nearly 95%. It's great when a pitcher can achieve like that, but you can't expect it.

Look at it this way, if his saves record were 54-4, then his success rate would be 93.1% (which is stellar) and we'd still be out of the running.

No question he had two ineffective patches and they cost the team, but to blame him for not being one of the best of all time seems a little over the top to me.

[Can_of_corn]

My post was to list the 4 other players who have saved 100 games in 2 years. Didn't say anything more or less. Was a list with no commentary!

You do realize the major contributing factor in accumulating 100 saves in two years is having an abundance of save opportunities right?

[Guest]

Johnson leads the Orioles in losses enough said.

[mdbdotcom]

Johnson leads the Orioles in losses enough said.

Tied with Hammel and Gonzalez, actually.

In 2012, Chen had the most losses.

21011 - Guthrie

[Frobby]

Oh for the love of Pete, I agree with you. It isn't about that. I know you're a smart guy, too, and you must have seen some of my other posts that say if we increase our payroll I'm all about having him back. What do you put the percentage of that happening?

I put the odds of payroll increasing at close to 100%. Whether it will increase enough for an $8 mm closer to make sense, I don't know.

[El Gordo]

Strangely and against my better judgment I'm beginning to think the payroll just might go up. This could be one indication, the fact that in the scheme of things they feel they can afford JJ. They know what we need to upgrade. If they feel they need a top CL to be in it next season, it may be because they intend to add a few major pieces. IMO JJ would have been the best piece to move if you wanted to free up salary.