Johnson Part of the Core

[Frobby]

Just as I thought. Asked if he wanted to extend, instead of saying yes he goes on about how he loves the colors orange and black and wearing them someday (not necessarily the Orioles) and then says,"This place has just been, I?ve had so many good memories in two years, you know I?d love to extend that(good memories) for a number of years.? That isn't the same as what the tweet says. I seem to remember TEX waxing poetic about what a dream it would be to play in B'more. Not to say Chris is a douche like TEX, but that an extension is his agent's department, and he understandably needs to be circumspect in his answers. Of course he would love to stay in B'more, and if the O's offer him the 5/100+M the MFY or TEX do, then maybe he will. I stand by my original assumption that the O's wont offer enough to convince Boras to advise him to extend.

Try Melewski's quote, he's a lot more direct there:

"I really struggled for two years," he said. "I just got to the point where, I quit worrying so much about the results and started looking at the work and preparation that went into it. I can't say enough about how much it has meant to come here and play every day. Plus when you have a clubhouse where you can go to every day and feel like part of a family, that makes things a lot easier."

* * *

Davis was asked again today about staying and playing in Baltimore long term. He said early this week he was very open to signing a long-term contract here and reiterated that today.

"I know it was tough to be a fan here for a long time," Davis said. "I hope the last couple of years have restored the faith of the fanbase and given them something to cheer about. I can't think of a better place to hit for the rest of my career. I have had so many good memories here in two years, I'd love to extend that for a numbers of years."

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2013/09/chris-davis-on-the-mvo-the-mvp-and-more.html

[mdbdotcom]

But it isn't only a one year thing. The more he gets next year the more he can get as a free agent. That is part of the fallacy of "pay the man" arguments in arbitration. And just because you have extra money doesn't mean you should waste it. The really ___ thing about the situation is that when the team tenders JJ a contract, they will kind of lock themselves in to having to sign him to an extension. If not, JJ could/would simply walk in free agency with no compensation.

That's usually what happens with closers. I thought they were grooming Hunter for the role, but I don't feel confident in him handling it. They need to find someone else to groom to pick up the slack when JJ leaves.

[Dark Helmet]

I have a feeling you will see DD ink JJ to a 3 deal in the 7-8 mil per range. I think that's the plan anyhow. You don't mention guys on 1 year deals as "core" players.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Only if you have an alternative. If you're stuck in the middle of nowhere without your phone, and the first car that comes by in two days offers you a lift for $100, you pay the man.

Also, with the infusion of $25 million in TV money going into all team coffers, this is the year to absorb overpaying someone like JJ.

I would argue that cheaper alternatives are available. Are they without risk/reward considerations..... No. Is Johnson probably more of a certainty than other possible options ..... yes of course.

If the Orioles are going to considerably increase payroll next year I could agree with keeping him (I have stated stated as much). I'll believe it when it happens though.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I feel like the whole "waiting in the wings" thing is overrated. I don't think anyone envisioned JJ as a closer. There are a decent amount of pitchers that get thrusted into the role that they never saw coming. We had Hoey and Ray in the wings and the baseball gods clipped both wings.

Why would they want to install Hammel in to the closers role?

I remember people saying there is no way Jim Johnson could ever be a closer.

[Crazysilver03]

I have a feeling you will see DD ink JJ to a 3 deal in the 7-8 mil per range. I think that's the plan anyhow. You don't mention guys on 1 year deals as "core" players.

This.

I am thinking they will announce a 3/$22M deal at some point.

[mdbdotcom]

I have a feeling you will see DD ink JJ to a 3 deal in the 7-8 mil per range. I think that's the plan anyhow. You don't mention guys on 1 year deals as "core" players.

You do mention guys as "core" players if you're trying to boost their trade value.

[Dark Helmet]

You do mention guys as "core" players if you're trying to boost their trade value.

I don't see how calling someone a "core" player would raise his trade value. Your not getting a huge return for a closer on a 1 year deal. Also, DD risks losing the trust of his players if he trades someone he called a core player. What does that say to Davis and Wieters? DD kinda painted himself into a corner. Either way I think they extend JJ. Wouldnt be shocked to see Hardy extended 2 more years either. I think the extra money will be used to keep rather than add players.

[El Gordo]

Try Melewski's quote, he's a lot more direct there:

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2013/09/chris-davis-on-the-mvo-the-mvp-and-more.html

I don't see how this is in any more detail. He omits the part about orange in black being his favorite colors which I think puts the whole thing I a more general context. He is equivocal about extending as he should be.

[Hallas]

To those that don't think Johnson is "elite" or think that his performance can be easily replicated:

Over the past 2 years, there are 21 relievers that have had at least 60 shutdowns. Of those, a grand total of 3 relievers converted on shutdown opportunities at a better rate than Johnson. Kimbrel, Nathan, Chapman. That's it. When it comes to combining performance and durability, it's really, really hard to argue that Johnson has not performed. I understand why people are hesitant to pay $8m to a reliever, even one that's really good, but the results are undeniably there, even if he has had a difficult season this year. Below is the list of relievers with at least 60 shutdowns over the 2012/2013 seasons, sorted by SD/MD rate.

#	Name	        Team	SD	MD	SD/MD3	Craig Kimbrel	Braves	76	9	8.4444444446	Joe Nathan	Rangers	69	11	6.2727272732	Aroldis Chapman	Reds	80	13	6.1538461541	Jim Johnson	Orioles	86	15	5.7333333335	Grant Balfour	Athleti	70	13	5.38461538516	Fernando Rodney	Rays	61	12	5.0833333334	Greg Holland	Royals	70	15	4.6666666679	David Robertson	Yankees	65	14	4.6428571437	Rafael Soriano	- - -	66	15	4.420	Steve Cishek	Marlins	60	14	4.28571428614	Ernesto Frieri	- - -	62	15	4.13333333315	Chris Perez	Indians	62	15	4.13333333310	Jonath Papelbon	Philli	65	16	4.062521	Sergio Romo	Giants	60	15	48	Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	65	17	3.82352941218	Tyler Clippard	Nationa	61	18	3.38888888917	Addison Reed	White S	61	19	3.21052631612	Ryan Cook	Athleti	64	23	2.78260869613	Luke Gregerson	Padres	64	24	2.66666666711	Joel Peralta	Rays	65	25	2.619	Matt Belisle	Rockies	61	33	1.848484848 

If we try and roll the dice with Hader or something as closer, we might get lucky and have someone with similar success. But the chances are much, much higher that whatever reliever we get in place of Johnson will perform at a much worse rate. While it's true that it's easy to find someone who can close 2 and 3-run saves with a moderate success rate, that's not the same as saying it's easy to find good closers that won't cost your team games. Even if we signed Sergio Romo's twin brother at the league minimum, we're looking at 6 more blown saves over 2 years. Last year, that would have been the difference between the playoffs and going home. And that's the very, very best case. If you get someone like Tyler Clippard? You're looking at 10 more possible blown saves over 2 years. At these margins, the effect that blowing a save opportunity has on actual W/L percentages is much greater than the 1 run or 2 runs given up would indicate.

[Can_of_corn]

To those that don't think Johnson is "elite" or think that his performance can be easily replicated:

Over the past 2 years, there are 21 relievers that have had at least 60 shutdowns. Of those, a grand total of 3 relievers converted on shutdown opportunities at a better rate than Johnson. Kimbrel, Nathan, Chapman. That's it. When it comes to combining performance and durability, it's really, really hard to argue that Johnson has not performed. I understand why people are hesitant to pay $8m to a reliever, even one that's really good, but the results are undeniably there, even if he has had a difficult season this year. Below is the list of relievers with at least 60 shutdowns over the 2012/2013 seasons, sorted by SD/MD rate.

Funny when I think elite the two names that immediately come to mind are Kimbrel and Chapman. Those are the two guys, right now, that I would risk big money on.

[calmunderfire]

Jim Johnson comes in and F's up seasons. He did in the ALDS in 2012 and then he did it all of 2013 with 9 blown saves and taking 8 losses. He must leave Baltimore. He's caused too much damage that I do not think he can ever repair. He's just too much right now. He must leave this city.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Jim Johnson comes in and F's up seasons. He did in the ALDS in 2012 and then he did it all of 2013 with 9 blown saves and taking 8 losses. He must leave Baltimore. He's caused too much damage that I do not think he can ever repair. He's just too much right now. He must leave this city.

Get a grip man.

[OFFNY]

Jim Johnson comes in and F's up seasons. He did in the ALDS in 2012 and then he did it all of 2013 with 9 blown saves and taking 8 losses. He must leave Baltimore. He's caused too much damage that I do not think he can ever repair. He's just too much right now. He must leave this city.

Or what ???

Since you laid down the gauntlet with your assertion/declaration, what exactly are you going to do about it if he doesn't leave?

[Il BuonO]

Jim Johnson comes in and F's up seasons. He did in the ALDS in 2012 and then he did it all of 2013 with 9 blown saves and taking 8 losses. He must leave Baltimore. He's caused too much damage that I do not think he can ever repair. He's just too much right now. He must leave this city.

Where's Beckens? Now this guy's a hater.